The monthly employment report came in better than expected. In fact, the market actually thought it was a little “too good” and the S&P 500 dipped on the news. Traders are not rooting against the US economy but they are leery an overheating economy will pressure the Fed to back away from its accommodative monetary policy.
While people have feared “too good” for years, good news hasn’t held stocks back in more than half a decade. But old habits die hard and people keep reflexively selling good news because they think maybe this is the one that finally breaks this bull. Yeah, I don’t think so. This logic didn’t work last time and there is a good chance it won’t work here either.
Investors are also a little skittish about potential Coronavirus headlines over the weekend. Two weeks ago the market was hammered Monday morning and there is still a little “better safe than sorry” thinking going around the market ahead of this weekend.
But the thing about selling ahead of time is it actually reduces the risk of holding through the weekend. The more stocks go down now, the less room they have to fall Monday morning. This isn’t to say we cannot open even lower, but today’s 20-point decline took some sting out of any headlines that might crop up this weekend. And if nothing bad happens, expect those 20-points to come racing back Monday morning. We fear a market that is oblivious to the risks, not one that is preparing for them.
So far the market is acting really well and anyone who bought last Friday’s dip or this Monday’s bounce is sitting on nice profits. Move your stops up and start reviewing your plan to take profits. When the crowd finally starts thinking it is safe to start buying again is when we want to be selling.
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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM
Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and financial analyst that has successfully traded stocks and options for nearly three decades. He has an undergraduate engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines and two graduate business degrees from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes engineering at Fortune 500 companies, small business consulting, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two children.