Why the cynics keep getting this market wrong, plus what to do with “too high” $FB, $GOOG, and $AMZN

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Apr 29

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

After a few do-nothing sessions in the first half of the week, the S&P 500 made up for it on Thursday by traversing nearly 80-points intraday in a dramatic whipsaw.

The index gapped above the psychologically significant 4,200 at the open. But rather than embrace the breakout, it was met by waves of profit-taking as some investors developed a fear of heights.

All too often people try to top-tick the market by guessing which point is finally too high. Unfortunately for them, too-high almost always turns into even-higher. And not long after the profit-taking knocked the index back under 4,200 Thursday morning, supply dried up and confident dip buyers pushed the index back to record highs.

Higher interest rates. Higher taxes. It doesn’t matter what the bears throw at this market, nothing can take it down. While this nirvana cannot last forever and stocks will falter at some point, this is not that point.

By reversing an early selloff and closing near the daily highs, this rally proved it is still alive and well. Ignore all the talk about too-high and stick with what has been working. Hold for higher prices and keep lifting our trailing stops.

The cynics will eventually be right, but they will be wrong for a long time before it happens.

FB and GOOGL had blowout earnings and not to be left out, AMZN joined the blowout earnings party. These are the best-of-the-best companies in our economy and it is no surprise they are roaring back to life as the economy recovers.

So much for fear of expensive, overbought, and every other cynical criticism thrown at these stocks. These companies keep doing what they are good at and it is little wonder their stock prices keep going up.

While this latest pop makes them even more expensive, high almost always gets even higher. Stick with what has been working and no doubt in a few weeks and months, people will be kicking themselves for not buying at these levels.

That said, don’t hold anything with blind devotion. Pick sensible stops and if these stocks falter, get out. Easy as that. Until then, keep holding for higher prices.

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About the Author

Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and financial analyst that has successfully traded stocks and options for nearly three decades. He has an undergraduate engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines and two graduate business degrees from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes engineering at Fortune 500 companies, small business consulting, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two children.