Oct 25

Words of wisdom for those holding TSLA as well as everyone else that missed this great trade

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

All of the headlines are screaming TSLA is now a trillion-dollar company. That’s a huge milestone for the stock and puts it in rarefied air. But telling us about this after it already happened doesn’t help anyone make money. We need to know about these things ahead of time!

Well, it just so happens TSLA was on my radar this summer after it bounced nicely off of $600 support. And I told readers as much back on July 12th:

Far more important is $600 support. Fail that and it could trigger another wave of defensive selling. But until that happens, last week’s bounce just above support is buyable. That said, this doesn’t get real interesting until it gets above recent resistance near $700, but so far, so good.

Well, not only did TSLA get interesting above $700, but it started looking even more fabulous above $800, $900, and now $1,000.

Now don’t get me wrong, I am most definitely not a TSLA bull and this looks as sustainable as all those dot-com names back in 2000. But I’m a trader and it doesn’t matter to me where this stock will be five years from now. If it is going up today, I want to be aboard and enjoying the ride. We can worry about all of that other stuff when it eventually becomes an issue. Until then, “don’t worry, be happy.”

As for what comes next, the risk/reward was stacked nicely in our favor back at $600, but now it has done a 180 and is totally skewed against us. Owners with a huge profit cushion and a big apatite for risk can continue holding to see how much higher this goes, but keep trailing stops nearby because this can fall as quickly as it rose. It would be a real shame to let these really nice profits escape simply because we got too greedy.

And if for those that missed this trade, well, it happens. Chalk it up as a learning experience and let it go. After rallying nearly 70%, there is far less upside remaining and the risks up here are gigantic!

If a person really likes this stock, stay patient, there will be a better, lower-risk entry point. It might not happen next week or even next month, but there are smarter and less risky ways to jump aboard this trade.

Remember, only fools are chasing this stock up 70%. Don’t be a fool.

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Oct 21

If you missed this bounce, use this simple and reliable trick next time

By Jani Ziedins | Free CMU

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Thursday was the S&P 500’s seventh up-day in a row. Not a bad run from a market that most people, including myself, thought was on the verge of the next lower. But that’s the way this game works. Prices don’t bounce until the crowd has given up on the bounce. And now we are left with a mountain of regretful sellers who are kicking themselves for acting so hastily.

Lucky for regular readers of this free blog, I wrote the following seven sessions ago:

Wednesday’s 0.3% gain counted as a bounce, so I held my nose and bought it. My trading plan told me to add more following Thursday’s strong open, so I bought more. And here I am, holding a nice profit in a trade I didn’t even want to make! This example highlights why we always follow our trading plan, not our gut.

While I didn’t like this bounce initially, I bought it anyway because that is what my trading plan told me to do, and now I’m sitting on a pile of profits. Funny how that works.

I’ve been doing this for a long time and my gut tends to be right more often than not, but every time my gut and trading plan disagree, I always go with my trading plan because it is right far more often than my gut. No surprise an objective, unemotional, thoughtful plan can outperform an emotional, egotistical, and a sometimes irrational bag of meat (i.e. me).

While years ago I would overrule my trading plan, almost every time I did, I came to regret it not long after. Get beat over the head with humbling losses often enough and eventually, I learned my lesson. And now I always follow my plan no matter what my gut thinks. Today I am sitting on a pile of profits in a 3x ETF because of that lesson I learned the hard way all those years ago.

If you messed up this trade, don’t be too hard on yourself. Count this as a learning experience and try to do better next time.

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Oct 19

Did you buy the bounce? If not, why not?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 surged for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday and finds itself less than half a percent from all-time highs.

Does anyone see a correction because I sure don’t?

None of the issues weighing on the market last month have been solved, but obviously, they don’t need to be solved for stocks to bounce back. The selloff was triggered by fear of the worst and when none of these problems spiraled out of control, stocks rallied in relief.

As I wrote last week:

I will be the first to admit [last] Wednesday’s bounce wasn’t all that attractive and I was already suspicious of this market, so my gut told me to ignore the bounce. But I don’t trade my gut, I trade my trading plan and that told me to start with a small position Wednesday afternoon.

Well, it’s a good thing I listened to my trading plan because the index is now 3.5% above Wednesday’s close. Trade that with a 3x ETF and well….you get the idea.

I often remind readers the best trades are often the hardest to pull the trigger on. I didn’t want to buy last week and if I listened to my gut, I would have missed out on all of these nice and easy profits.

But rather than pat myself on my back, it is time to switch from offense to defense. I have nice profits and it would be criminal to let these escape. I moved my stops up to the mid 4,400s in anticipation of stalling at the old highs. But rather than pull the plug on a trade that is working, I’m willing to give this more time and wait to see what happens next. Break the old highs and I keep holding. Stall and retreat, I get out at my stops and wait for the next bounce.

As for anyone that missed last week’s bounce, well, it happens. Rather than force an ill-advised trade here, step back, admit you missed it, and wait for the next good trading opportunity. It will come along sooner than you think.

As for the next entry point, a break above the old highs is buyable with a stop just under this level. Start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working. The odds of this breakout trade working are not great, but if you get into at the right time, the risks are very manageable and the potential reward is worth the effort.

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