AM: Strength continues

S&P500 daily at 1:18 EDT

AM Update

MARKET BEHAVIOR
Stocks are modestly higher after recovering from earlier weakness.

MARKET SENTIMENT
The market barely has time to selloff before the next wave of buyers rushes in and props it up.  No matter what common sense tells us, we trade the market and as long as holders keep holding and buyers keep buying, we continue going higher.

The most challenging part of becoming a true contrarian trader is seeing the difference between price and the crowd.  Most people wrongly assume contrarian is going against the trend, but far more often the contrarian trade is going with the trend.  When everyone is saying too-far, too-fast, the contrarian trade is sticking with the rally.  That is exactly what is going on here.  There are a million reasons to sell this market, but it keeps going higher because the crowd is already out of the market.

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES
Expected Outcome:
Stock continue defying expectations and are just under 1600.  When in doubt, stick with the trend and that has never been truer than this market.  I have no idea how much further this can go, but buyers snap up every dip and keep a solid floor under this market.  The new buzz is “Sell in May……”, but if that is what everyone expects, look for a strong summer.  Of course the longer this holds up, the more we need to fear the inevitable correction.  But that is then and this is now, so stick with the trend until the market tells us otherwise.

Alternate Outcome:
The market defies skeptics and the pool of cynics grows smaller with each bounce.  Without a doubt this market will selloff at some point, the only questions are when and how much.  We are looking for a double-top above 1597 and a resulting selloff under 1570 to signal buying is finally drying up.

Trading Plan:
Stick with what is working.  We could see a step back in coming days after such a strong bounce off the 50dma, but holding above 1570 shows buyers continue supporting this market.  A dip under 1570 likely means a test of the 50dma and a break of this level is when bears finally get their day.

AAPL daily at 1:18 EDT

INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
AAPL is surging above the 50dma.  The question is if this is the rebound everyone’s been waiting for.  The stock decisively reclaimed prior support at $42o, but needs to break $470 before it ends the streak of lower-highs.  Without a doubt this could be the end of the selloff, but every other bounce over the last eight-months was a selling opportunity.  Why will this time be any different?  That’s a question any bull needs to answer.  We should know pretty quick if this is just another bump on the way lower or if there is real buying behind this move.  $430 is a decent trailing stop for any holders and will allow unlimited upside, but protect capital from another selloff.

If you want me to write about a stock, post it in the comments and I’ll pick a few when I see something interesting.  Obviously I cannot provide insight into every stock out there, but I’ll try to include a couple new stocks here and there.  I had a request for TSLA and will get to that one tonight.

Plan your trade; trade your plan