Holding gains

S&P500 daily at 2:26 EDT

Intraday Analysis

MARKET BEHAVIOR
Stocks are trading sideways and consolidating the recent rebound.  We are still holding the 50dma and recovered the majority of January’s dip.

MARKET SENTIMENT
Nothing calms nerves like rebounding prices.  Previously nervous owners were rewarded for holding this dip, making them even less likely to sell the next round of weakness.  That lack of selling keeps supply tight and makes it easier for the rebound to continue.  More than just tight supply, the selloff flushed many owners out of the market and they are now prospective buyers as they are forced to chase the bounce higher.

While it is human nature to try and assign a cause to everything we see, markets go up and down for no other reason than that’s what markets do.  It is human nature to bid up prices to unsustainable levels and then sell them down to oversold levels.  So far this volatility seems to be little more than these normal and routine fluctuations.

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES
Expected Outcome: Climbing toward upper bound of an extended trading range
The time to buy the dip was when the crowd was fearful and selling stock at steep discounts.  Buying now is a bit late to the party and if the market is in an 1,750/1,850 trading range, we are approaching the upper bounds and this is a better selling opportunity than buying one.

Alternate Outcome:
Watch for signs of stalling demand, signaling this rebound is nothing but a temporary reprieve.  Likely another round of panic selling requires more spooky headlines, so keep an eye out for anything that could unnerve the market.

Trading Plan:
Buy weakness and sell strength.

Plan your trade; trade your plan