Category Archives for "Free Content"

European upheaval

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily, end of day

Interesting to see the outcomes of French and Greek elections.  The Euro crisis fell off the front page last fall and now it looks like it is trying to nudge its way back into spotlight with key political upheavals in France and Greece.  But with all the negative talk by market pundits, the indexes held their ground today and were flat in the face of this news.  Much of that can be attributed to the market expecting these results as they were telegraphed by pre-election polling over the last few weeks. But while the actual result was expected, the consequences might not be priced in.

The problem with new govts in Greece and France means the political negotiations that took place last summer will need to be rehashed and all the uncertainty and infighting that went along with last summer’s volatility will be front and center yet again.  Since we’ve already been there and done that, I don’t expect the same amount of uncertainty, volatility, and sell-off as we saw last summer, but as everyone knows, the market hates uncertainty and no doubt this will weigh on equities.

Today’s lack of a sell-off is most likely due to the expectations that France’s and Greece’s new ‘socialist’ govts will give up the economic crushing austerity plans and instead support a more growth oriented easy money agenda.  And ultimately I think this will be a good thing for Europe and the global economy, but the near-term battles with fiscally conservative Germany will muck up the waters and the market hates uncertainty. Can the markets continue ignoring the Euro mess as it has done for the last several months, or will new infighting and breakdowns bring the story back to page one?

Ultimately I expect this will all work itself out, but over the near-term it will be hard to justify the bull-case in the face of this turmoil and the market could struggle over the summer because of it.  The market is facing an uphill battle between headline-risk and if we fall a little lower, the technicals will also be supportive of a sell-off.  For the adventurous looking to make money on the short side, now would be a good time to ready a watch-list with high-flyers that have struggled recently.  Look for the market and these watch-list stocks to break resistance on high volume and jump on board the downdraft.  But I expect this downward move will be fairly moderate, so be prepared to lock-in worthwhile profits and don’t let yourself get greedy.  Just like last fall, I expect the market will find its footing once the it realizes the fear is unjustified and the outcome becomes more clear.  This will lead to another nice year-end rally.  Of course the further away the predictions are, the less reliable they become so we will need to continue revising our expectations as events and price action unfolds.

And as always, I could be 100% backwards in this analysis and the market might rally strongly in the face of what it should do because that is how the market rolls.  The number one rule in investing is the market is bigger than we are and it can bankrupt us no matter how sound our logic is.

As always, stay safe.

For those following the blogs over the weekend, there was a technical glitch that produces a post full of gibberish.  I apologize for that and it has since been corrected.  If you wish to read that post, it will follow this post on on the main page of the website.

Disappointing employment numbers

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily, end of day

Friday’s employment numbers came in under expectations and were the lowest net gains we’ve seen in six months. In addition, this was the second consecutive month employment came in under expectations and the situation was ripe for a sell-off.

But while the results were disappointing and the market sold-off, volume was relatively constrained and the indexes have not retreated to new lows. This shows waves of panic selling didn’t hit the market and the decline was relatively orderly. Some might suggest this is a positive revelation, but ironically I find the lack of concern by market participant a concern. Panic sell-offs rebound quickly, but orderly sell-offs have legitimacy and are far less prone to bouncing. No doubt markets overdo things, but they usually overdo them in dramatic fashion and we have yet to see that drama, so I expect we could have more room on the downside before we see a bounce.

IBD moved the Market Outlook into Market In Correction, so that means we need to see four days of constructive price-action before we get the green light for new purchases. And given the sentiment of other traders, that seems to be the prudent move at the moment. It makes sense to lighten up on existing positions showing any weakness and is a good excuse to weed-out under performing stocks.

INVN daily, end of day

As for individual stocks, INVN blew up in spectacular fashion, plunging 25% as they reported disappointing 250% growth. Hard to fault management for that performance, but the market can be a brutally judge, jury, and executioner as they set far higher standards. This is a painful reminder of how volatile small-cap growth stocks can be and why often it is prudent to lock in gains when you can. No doubt INVN was a trading vehicle and fundamentals took a backseat to gambling-like speculation. The interesting thing was to see the far more modest 5% loss in Thursday’s after-hour and Friday’s premarket trading, yet when the stock opened for trading it plunged beyond belief. No doubt much of that anomaly was structural in nature as the decline triggered countless autopilot stop-loss orders and it was all downhill from there. This was a dramatic flush out and it has the potential to clean the slate for INVN as it drove of most of the speculators. It will be an interesting stock to keep on the radar given its impressive earnings growth and the fact that the reduced guidance was due to external factors. No doubt is is far from a buy candidate in its present form, but I’m not convinced INVN’s run is over.

Uptrend under pressure

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

Leading stocks had a rough day, falling far more than the modest pullback in the indexes. Live by high-beta stocks, die by high-beta stocks. While today was ugly, taken in context of last week’s progress, we have only given up a portion of the recent gains and are not in hot water yet. We continue have a some cushion before we risk breaking resistance and making new relative lows.

The problem for the current market comes when bringing in the volume of the up-days vs the down-days. The largest volume days have either been down-days or stalling-days ending with little gain.

As it stands, the market seems more skewed toward the bearish case and that is why IBD’s Big Picture moved its market outlook to Market Under Pressure, but all that will be rendered irrelevant if Friday’s employment numbers are outstanding. Meeting expectations or missing expectations will most likely allow the bear case to develop. At this point it is too late to predict what the employment numbers will be and we are left reacting to the aftermath once it is released. Regardless of the fundamentals, we need to trade our plan and respond to the price action no matter what we think should happen.

As for individual stocks, KORS, FRAN, INVN, and others had rough days giving up a large chunk of their recent gains. But that is the nature of trading high-beta stocks. One day you are a hero, the next you are a goat. But there is no such thing as easy money in the markets and the stocks with the greatest potential also are the most gut-wrenching. If it were easy, everyone would do it. Stick to your rules and use those to dictate how you respond to this market and try to keep emotional impulses in check.

Stay save and lets hope for the best Friday.

Lack of conviction continues

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily @ 1:17 EDT

The markets had a disappointing finish yesterday, giving back most of their intra-day gains in the last hour of trading.  And this morning the market continued that reversal, opening modestly lower, but on a positive note have since bounced off of the daily lows by early afternoon.  As for absolute levels, the S&P500 is holding up reasonably well, but sticking with the ongoing lagging theme, the NASDAQ retested its 50dma again and is less technically strong.  From the price action of the indexes, it appears money managers are rotating out of the aggressive tech and small cap names and moving their money to more defensive sectors.

Given the lack of conviction by either bulls or bears, it is not surprising the indexes are continuing to churn sideways and breakouts either direction quickly lose steam.  Both headlines and sentiment have been mixed preventing a more sustained move either direction.  Maybe Friday’s employment numbers will be the catalyst that finally tips the scales one direction or the other.

LULU daily @ 1:17 EDT

KORS is adding on to yesterday’s strong move off of the 50dma.  LULU is also exerting itself, powering to new highs today.  LULU’s move doesn’t have the duration to qualify as a base and is simply a bounce off of the 50dma.  The buy range for 50dma bounces are from the 50dma all the way up to 5% above the previous high.  From that measure, both LULU and KORS are still in the buy range.

Nice rally day

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 2:32 EDT

The indexes are up nicely today, reinforcing last week’s technical breakout above the recent 50dma consolidation.  Obviously my reluctance regarding the market so far has been misguided and no doubt an army of people feeling the same way I do is partially responsible for the upside we are witnessing.

The interesting thing will seeing how far this can go.  A big push behind last quarter’s monster rally was institutional investors playing catch up as the market left them in the dust.  At the moment the second quarter is in the red, so there is no pressure for big money to chase the market.  Of course that could change if we start making new highs with a few more days like today.

Friday’s employment number will be a big headline grabber, but it seems like it is less of a market moving event than it was earlier in the economic recovery.  No doubt a big surprise either way will shock the market, but anything that approaches expectations should not create too much of a wave by itself.  Of course that doesn’t mean investors won’t use it as an excuse to trade a preconceived bias they have and that could potentially trigger a larger move if enough people jump on board as part of self-fulfilling prophecy.

KORS daily @ 2:33 EDT

FIRE is having a great day, up 13% after earnings and is adding to its already impressive gains since its Feb breakout.  KORS is jumping off of its 50 in strong volume today, giving a solid entry or add point for a bull.  BWLD is flirting with its 50, but struggling to hold above it in afternoon trade.  AAPL found support at the 50 earlier in the day, but has since given back all those gains and is currently flat.

I added a tab to the CrackedMarket website with a watch-list of the stocks I am following.  This is far from a comprehensive list and many big winners will not make the list simply because by design it will be highly exclusive instead of inclusive.  The goal is not to find every stock that makes a big move, but instead be focused on identifying a highly targeted list with as few false-positives as possible.  Because of the advantages of scalability in stock investing, we only need to identify one or two big winners each year to produce great results as long as we allocate enough capital to each good idea.  The bane of a portfolio is getting stuck with dead money stocks that don’t move and water down any winning positions.  This is why I am merciless when cutting otherwise good stocks from consideration.  Further, the goal is not to find obscure stocks no one knows about yet, but instead target stocks that are starting to show up on my radar multiple times and in the early stage of generating buzz across the larger investing community.

Buy the dip or sell the rally?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily at 1:05 EDT

Indexes are selling-off modestly for the first time since breaking above the recent trading range.  Is this a good time for people who missed the recent run to get in, or a last chance for those still holding stocks to get out at a decent price?  In typical fashion, the arguments for both directions are equally compelling.

If we use the strength of the follow through day and the performance of the recent rally’s general, AAPL, as a benchmark, it seems less than an ideal foundation for a material move higher.  But on the other side, the markets often climb a wall of worry and it is this very uncertainty that provides the best opportunity to buy early weakness and hold for a profit as other investors slowly come around.

FRAN daily @ 1:05 EDT

I am fighting a negative bias and I don’t want to let it skew my outlook, but I still find myself suspicious of this rally.  There are a lot of good stocks holding up well in this weakness, but I have yet to pull the trigger on any of them since the follow through day.  FRAN is having a great day, up 5% in a continued bounce off of its 50dma.  LNKD is also showing impressive strength after its own 50dma bounce.  SWI is holding on to an impressive move off of last week’s earnings.  On the other side, AAPL is extending a 3-day slide after its blow-out earnings.  It is pushing down toward its 50dma and a bigger risk will potentially be a test of the recent $555 low.  It seems at the moment everyone who wants AAPL already owns AAPL and no one is left to rush in and prop up the declining price.

Indexes continue holding gains

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:15 EDT

The indexes continue to hold recent gains and are edging higher. The S&P500 is above 1400 and sitting above the recent consolidation area. Today the NASDAQ joined the S&P500 by also poking its head above its recent range. These developments continue to be constructive and supportive of yesterday’s Follow Through Day. With this positive price action, there is no reason not to venture in and try some promising stocks. Start with 1/2 positions and add on as the market continues to move up.

From a sentiment point of view, it seems like the number of bulls and bears is fairly balanced and the lack of a disproportionate disparity most likely means the moves going forward will be more modest.  Extremes in the market tend to coil up the spring and today there is not much energy bound up in the spring.  Of course this balance rarely holds up and over time we’ll see the market skew one way or the other based upon headlines, price movements, and group think.

There are some interesting individual stock stories (AAPL, AMZN, SWI, GNC, etc), but as far as the indexes go, they are fairly boring at the moment.  Give it a few weeks and no doubt traders will find some kind of drama to start obsessing about.

Markets Flat after IBD calls Follow Through Day

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

IBD called yesterday’s 1.4% gain on the S&P500 a day 11 follow through and we are back in a Confirmed Uptrend by their measures. But waiting more than two weeks for the follow through, having average volume on the FTD, and making just 1.4% gains are three separate signs that this FTD is less potent than ideal. That doesn’t mean this one can’t work, just in the past FTDs with this less than compelling action are more prone to failure. No doubt we can find weak FTDs that worked, but on average they have a lower success rate than more powerful ones. The best thing we can do is watch the subsequent price action and not jump into this market head first without waiting for more compelling evidence to support this FTD, namely positive price gains. Start buying good looking positions and then add on when the price increases. This will let you in the market, but also manage the risk if things breakdown.

As for where we are, the markets are mostly flat today on light volume. The SPX is at the upper end of the recent trading range, just poking its head above. The NAS is in the upper half of the range, but still has a bit more progress before breaking above it. The market seems unsure of itself at these levels as neither the bear nor the bulls have the courage to buy or short this market and it is a staring contest between the two to see who will blink first.

So far the market has found good support at the 1360 level as we bounced off of that twice. A third trip to that level would be fairly bearish as there is no such thing as a bullish tripple-bottom. On the upside, we have taken a few weeks to digest recent gains and flushed out some of the irrational exuberance leading up to the end of the first quarter. The bulls were humbled by the pullback and the bears will humbled by the bounces off of support. So in these regards, the clock has been reset for both groups and we are just waiting on the price action to see which side has greater strength. Being at the upper end of the trading range means the bulls have a slight edge and just need to push us a tad higher before traders start buying the breakout. But given the positive sentiment over yesterday’s price move and regaining the 50dma, it is disappointing that there is not more follow on buying today. No doubt this indecisiveness will continue the lower volume trading we’ve seen over the last few months. But as traders, price is truth no matter what the volume is.

We have seen positive price action from the leaders that weathered the storm and there look to be good buys to invest in. I continue to be cautious and am not sold on this FTD yet, but further gains will get me in the market with both hands. If we can’t hold above the recent consolidation, there is most likely more left in the downside move.

AAPL does it again

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

AAPL daily

AAPL blew away estimates again and is single-handedly lifting the market today.  Most of AAPL’s strength comes from iPhone sales in China as they missed iPad and Mac expectations.  The one upshot is these quarterly results don’t include a Chinese release of the new iPad, which will provide a big boost for next quarter’s results. But AAPL is warning of a slowdown in iPhone sales going forward as customers hold-off in anticipation of an iPhone5.

As for how this affects the rest of the market, we are experiencing a nice pop today and all three major indexes retook their 50dma, but are still within the previous consolidation range, so not a technical breakout yet.  Today’s 1% and 2% gains are great to see after the recent weakness, but don’t constitute a follow through day because declines over the last few days reset the rally count.  This is day two for the S&P500 and day one for the NASDAQ.  We need a strong follow through day on Friday or next week to signal this market is ready to rebound.

NASDAQ daily

And given where we are, it seems prudent to allow the market a couple days to prove itself since today’s rally is the result of a single company.  The challenge will be to see if AAPL’s results can reverse the bearish sentiment we’ve seen in the markets as of late.  Is AAPL stronger than the markets, or are the markets stronger than AAPL?  And of course it doesn’t have to be an either/or as AAPL could decouple from the markets and continue higher in the face of wider weakness.

But again, sit tight and wait for that confirmation to demonstrates it is safer to venture into the market.  We give up some profit by waiting, but we decrease the risk of losing money by being patient.

Waiting for AAPL

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

The markets are flat to up modestly this morning as we digest yesterday’s sell-off.  Is this the level were value buyers are attracted to the market and that is who is supporting us here?  Or are we being propped up by swing traders foolishly trying to pick a bottom?  One group has a lot of weight and conviction behind them and the other is a 90lb weakling that will bail at the first sign of trouble, so it really does matter who is buying at these levels.

The one slight positive is we no longer seem to be triggering an avalanche of selling at each weak patch we encounter.    Yesterday we sliced through the 50dma and found a bottom early in the trading day and climbed from there.  But the other side of the coin, if we are not seeing panic induced selling by weak-kneed traders, then what we are seeing is real selling by institutions, and that is a lot more meaningful.

AAPL daily

The market moving earnings release will come from AAPL after the close.  AAPL was the general that lead the Q1 rally and it also represents ~12% of the NASDAQ index.  Any weakness in AAPL will surely affect the tech trade, if not the entire market.  But on the other side, a strong result from AAPL could kick off the next bull leg higher.  Given AAPL’s 50% price gain over the last few months, it really is hard not to think AAPL shares are priced for perfection and the bar is set extremely high for them.  And on top of that, virtually every ‘expert’ I’ve seen is saying you should buy the dip on AAPL.  When the market gets so one sided on a stock, it inevitably goes the other way because of the supply and demand imbalance.  Is AAPL at that point?  In a few hours we’ll know the answer.

NASDAQ continues under-performance

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily

A rough start to the week for the markets as we are down 1%+ in the first couple hours of the day with all three major indexes crashed through their 50dma.  The S&P500 and Dow are still trading in their recent consolidation areas but the NASDAQ broke support and is making a new relative low. This continues the trend of under-performance by the NASDAQ and demonstrates weakness by technology and smaller, growth companies.  Given the huge run-up and out-performance by the NASDAQ in Q1, profit taking and rotation out of this sector should not come as a surprise.

NASDAQ daily

Traders watch moving averages and trade off of them, but are secondary in psychological impact when compared to technical levels represented by concentrations of actual buying and selling activity.  It is one thing to see your stock fall under a moving average on volume, but seeing your stock fall under its purchase price generates far more anxiety.   This causes breaks under support to be far more powerful than drops under moving averages.  The NASDAQ broke under its support, but the other two indexes are holding up for the time being.  A break by those over the next couple days could signal this correction still has room on the downside.

It is not uncommon to see the markets retrace ~33% to ~66% of a move as part of a normal and healthy correction.  This is just part of the natural two-steps forward, one-step back process the markets use on their march higher.  On the S&P500 this gives us a pullback range of 1347-1275 if we use the Dec dip as the start of the current move, or 1321-1222 if we use the Oct low.

No matter what metric we use, we still have a little more to go to make this a normal and healthy correction.  As for how to trade this, we should continue to sit tight and wait for the upside confirmation before buying back in.  As for using this weakness to initiate short positions, I’m not sure this down-leg will produce the profit potential necessary to justify the risk.  As opposed to bear market conditions that make for the best shorting opportunities, this appears to simply be a normal pullback from overbought conditions.  No doubt money could be made on the short side, but you need to be very nimble with your short trades and take profits early and often because this downward move doesn’t appear like it will cover a lot of ground.  Rather than look for shorts, I think the smart move is searching for buy candidates holding up well in this sell-off so you are ready for the rebound.  But of course markets top when everything looks good so we always need to be wary of what we least expect.

Up, down, up, down…..

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily

The market again continues to hang out right at the 50dma and neither the bulls or bears have the strength to break the market from these levels.  It is still early in the day and we could see a more directional move this afternoon.  Today is options expiration so volume will be inflated, but it will still take a price move greater than 1.5% to trigger a follow through day.  Ideally we’d like to see volume far higher than yesterday to demonstrate the elevated volume isn’t simply a technicality due to the options market, but is really institutional investors getting behind the upside move on the long side.

The one helpful part of hanging out at the 50dma is the average has been inching up with every passing day and so while we are sitting on support, the market is still in a modest up trend.  But of course the real tell will be when we break above or below this consolidation in volume.  The last few weeks has done a good job of bloodying premature bulls and bears anticipating technical breakouts and they are getting far more gun-shy with each successive humiliation.  What this means is the next move out of the trading range is more likely to be the real deal because fewer premature day traders are artificially pushing the market.  With a diminished influence of technical and momentum traders, the next price move will be more influenced by institutional investor supply and demand and thus more likely to stick than the recent peak-a-boo breakouts that quickly retreated back into the trading range.  There is no grantee the next peak-a-boo won’t also retreat, but the probability of the market showing its true colors increases with each failed peak-a-boo due to the decreased influence of technical and momentum traders.

Again, no reason to trade these daily swings and it is best to wait for a confirmation either direction.  It is better to give up a little upside in order to improve your odds of success by waiting for a higher probability trade.

Treading water

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily

The indexes continue treading water near their 50dma in a frustrating fashion.  Up, down, up, down and repeat until thoroughly confused and demoralized.  Just like its been for the last week, this price action continues to support both a bullish or bearish setup and the only way we’ll find out is when we get a confirmation from the indexes when they actually move out of this range in a compelling manner.

So far all this trading range has accomplished is chewing up and spiting out any premature bulls or bears with overly tight stop-losses.  Neither side has the conviction or money to push us outside this range and we will continue to hold here until either the buy-the-dip crowd or the sellers lose the battle when they finally run out of funds to support their cause.  This is turning into an endurance race between the two camps and at this stage I really can’t say which side has an edge.  Both sides seem well represented in media making it hard to use a contrarian analysis to get a sense for what is the path of least resistance.

As far as CAN SLIM rules go, sitting and waiting is exactly what we should be doing right now when current outlook is market in correction.  We need to give the market time to prove itself and when deciding how to manage your portfolio, remember it is better to be out of the market wishing you were in than in the market wishing you were out.

FFIV daily

Aside from the indecisive indexes, we have seen good price action out of some leading stocks.  FFIV popped on strong earnings and retook it’s 50dma on a gap-up this morning.  Today’s move puts it back in line with its recent highs after dropping under it’s 50dma on large volume a couple weeks ago.  This price action demonstrates how difficult it can be to respond defensively to a stock by waiting for weakness to sell.  Very few stocks make big moves that are easy to hold and often the biggest winners are highly volatile and do their best to shake traders out prematurely.  There was no reliable way to identify FFIV’s April 10th and 11th plunge was just a regular shakeout and not the start of a larger decline.  For my personal trading style, I don’t want to be stuck trying to decide if a pullback is just a normal correction or the end of a move and is why I prefer selling into strength after a nice run-up.

No follow through

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily

Yesterday’s low volume failed to trigger a follow through day for the market and the lack of conviction by buyers makes it appear the sharp rally was largely driven by short covering coming from bears who piled in on the short side last Thursday and Friday after the market cut under the 50dma.  Yesterday’s lack of meaningful follow through seems to be confirmed by today’s listless open and modest decline in the first couple hours of trading.

This back and forth action seems to be driven by a small group of eager and premature bull and bear traders who are jumping ahead of the market in anticipation of their predisposed view of the market.  But once this smaller group of traders blows their load on a position, the market quickly reverses because big money investors don’t get on board with the move.  And given the back and forth with no real net movement, it really seems like big money is taking a wait and see approach.  As CAN SLIM investors we follow big money’s lead and that means we should also be sitting tight.

Now the last couple weeks have highlighted the difference between selling early and holding through a correction.  No doubt sitting through 10-20-30 percent corrections in a stock is demoralizing and challenges a person to maintain their composure.  There are two ways to make money in this game, one is by trading and the other is by investing.  Obviously trading is short term in nature and the trader has to follow the market closely to time his buying and selling.  But on the other side of the spectrum is the investor who finds great stories to invest in and then holds for an extended period of time and sits through multiple price corrections.  Psychologically the big difference between the two approaches is the trader watches the market daily, hourly, and even by the minute because he has little conviction in his positions and is mostly catching technical and momentum waves.  This is contrasted with the investor who buys stocks he has a lot of conviction in and because of that he is comfortable ignoring price data for weeks or months at a time because he knows his fundamental analysis will hold up regardless of short-term market fluctuations.

The problem a lot of amateur traders/investors run into is blending these two strategies in incompatible ways.  This would be the investor who follows a stock’s price action daily and thus subjects himself to the emotional turmoil of watching his position go up and down and ultimately tempts himself to bailing out at the exact wrong time on inevitable weakness.  And the other side is the trader who doesn’t react to the market’s price moves and allows a small loss spiral out of control as he is waiting for it to recover.

The challenge for the CAN SLIM trader who is looking for the home run is we tend to follow the market closely and the method to our making money is riding waves of hot stocks.  This daily following of stock prices makes it a challenge to hold through pullbacks, as many people are experiencing right now.  This is why some experienced traders recommend having two completely different accounts segregated between trading and investing.  This allows you to follow your trading positions daily and largely ignore your long term investments, greatly reducing the emotional urge to sell your home runs at every pullback.  Just something to think about as you hone your approach to the markets.

As for the current market, we continue to hold in the trading range around the 50dma as big money is sitting on their hands.  Trading sideways is often supportive of these price levels, but the longer we sit at these levels makes a potential downward move larger in size.  A good analogy would be a coiled spring.  The longer we sit at one level, the more potential energy is wound into it and the larger the resulting move will be.

For the time being I tend to be slightly more bearish simply because of the strong rally we recently had and how this affected the expectations priced in the market.  The bar set for many of these companies is 30, 40 and 50 percent higher than it was last fall and that will make for an interesting earnings season.  The thing about the markets is it takes unexpected good new to drive it higher.

Follow through day in the works?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily

In typical bi-polar nature the market has completely reversed yesterday’s losses and then some as all three broad market indexes jumped back above their 50dma.  While it is still early in the day, the move has the potential to turn into a follow through day for the S&P500 and Dow if we continue higher and the volume kicks in this afternoon.  The NASDAQ undercut its recent low yesterday, resetting its follow through day count and is currently the lagging index as traders appear to be rotating out of first quarter’s hot tech stocks.

Demoralizing sell-off yesterday, euphoric rally today, maddening isn’t it?  But if the market was easy, everyone would be rich and we all know it doesn’t work that way.  Currently the market is doing its best to embarrass and humiliate both bulls and bears, and all this back and forth action looks like it is doing a good job of it.  One day the market is spooking weak holders and tempting premature shorts and the next it has the buy-the-dip crowd rushing in with open arms and shorts running for cover.  And within a couple days both sides have been bloodied and regretting their hasty trades.

So what can we make of this price action?  On the positive, we continue to find support at the 50dma and are holding the recent consolidation area.  We have also been able to avoid a cascade of panic selling and so far most sell-offs have been been blunted by the buy-the-dip crowd.   For the negative, volume has been low, showing a lack of conviction and each rally is missing follow through buying and has reversed.  In addition, it seems like we lost the leadership of the tech sector and laggard industries are leading the S&P and Dow moves higher.  Can these lagging sectors really sustain a move higher?

But as I mentioned, we continue to hang around the 50dma and it will take a decisive break away from this to establish the next trend and that is what we need to keep an eye out for.  Further gains on substantial volume today would be a signal to start venturing back in.  But without that clear-cut signal, it is best to continue waiting for a confirmation because without conviction behind today’s rally, we could easily continue this bi-polar nature and see a pullback reversing all these impressive gains later in the week.

If we do see a follow-through today, the real challenge we be sifting through the rubble to find leading stocks that had a healthy pullback and filtering out those that appear broken.  AAPL’s earnings release next week will also be a big catalyst for the market and tech stocks since it has been the general leading the charge higher over the last several months.  A sneeze by AAPL could give the entire market a cold.  But at the same time, another blow out quarter could reignite the tech rally.  Given the recent price run, simply meeting expectations will probably disappoint the market and we’ll fee the heavy burden of the recent rally.

Opening strength turns down quickly

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily

Markets opened up, but right out of gate gave it all back and then some in just a few minutes.  Not an encouraging way to start the week.  Opening strong and finishing weak is a common trait in declining markets.  Typically this pattern is due to amateurs bottom-picking with their overnight orders that fill at the open and then institutional investors using that strength to sell into.

This sell-off is especially hard on tech stocks that lead the huge first-quarter rally.  NASDAQ and AAPL lead on the way up and seem to be leading on the way down.  The NASDAQ sliced through the 50dma today and the disconcerting thing about AAPL is it didn’t even participate in last week’s two-day rally and has been down five days in a row in an accelerating fashion.

AAPL daily

AAPL’s is finding support at $580 from its recent gap-up, but if that doesn’t hold, the 50dma is clearly in play and we’ll see if it find support at the $550 level where the rally paused back in Feb.  No doubt this is a favorite stock and it will find lots of bids on the way down, cushioning any weakness it might encounter.  But the harder part is deciding if smart money is buying AAPL’s dip, or selling the weakness.  And of course it doesn’t have to be an either or proposition.  AAPL could be a short-term sell and a long-term buy, so it really comes down to a trader’s time-frame.

It is still early in the day and an afternoon rally could completely change the tone of this morning’s price action.  If the buy-the-dip crowd shows up in force and steals control from the bears, that would would be extremely bullish.  But if the bulls rollover here, we could see the market slide a bit more before this sell-off is done.  But for those trying to hold, remember the market often bounces at the point of maximum pain.  Keeping that in mind, use the rules you previously set out for yourself and stick to them.  For those that raised cash recently by selling into the strength, keep an eye out for a buying opportunity that could be just days or weeks away.  As with most sell-offs, they tend to be a bit overdone and will bounce off of their oversold levels once the market finally finds its footing.  Other trader’s emotional impulses are your buying opportunities.  But don’t try to bottom pick and wait for an upside follow-through to get you back in the market.  It is better to be a little late than a little early.

Stay safe.

Indexes retesting the 50dma

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily

The market opened slightly lower and continued its slide through the early morning, down ~1% as I write this.  The markets have retreated to the 50dma, with the SPX slightly under and the NASDAQ a little above.  Volume is tracking marginally higher than yesterday, but that is typical of down-days and is not at alarming levels.

Unfortunately this price action continues to be ambiguous because this retreat/retrench can support both both the bull case and the bear case.

BULL:  The market doesn’t go straight up and a retest of the 50dma is not unusual given the two big up days we just had and the chorus of experts calling for a correction.  The high volume sell-off on Tuesday and then today’s decline is shaking out the weak holders and letting premature bears set up short positions.  With all the people calling for a correction, we are getting a lot of traders position themselves ahead of the ‘inevitable’ pullback and that is what is pressuring the market.  But all this bearish trading is setting up for a short squeeze as all those positions have to be bought back when the market resumes higher.

BEAR:  The rally over the previous two days was nothing more than a short squeeze to punish anyone who sold into or shorted the sell-off prematurely.  The market doesn’t like to be obvious, so what appeared to be the obvious collapse when the market broke the 50dma turned out to be a false start.  After a quick short squeeze, we are ready to resume the move lower as the buy-the-dip crow is finally running out of money and we are ready to start the correction that is long overdue.

Both sides have a very compelling argument and it will take a confirmation in either direction to demonstrate which camp has control and who is giving up the ghost.  A material drop under the 50dma would show a lack of conviction from the buy-the-dip crowd.  But holding at the 50dma for a few days will show support at these levels and there is a good chance the uptrend will resume.  As I said yesterday, it could take two days to figure out what the market wants to do and it seems like we will need to wait until Monday, unless the market tips its hand this afternoon and makes a strong move either direction.

Constructive price action

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily

Indexes are up for the second consecutive day after the recent sell-off.  The SPX decisively regained the 50dma this morning and the NASDAQ extended its bounce off of it.  While the price action is very compelling, the volume is mediocre at best, exhibiting modest excitement by market participants about this rebound.

LNKD is using this strength to launch up 7% and other high beta growth stocks are also up nicely.  But while the two-day rebound is encouraging, the market still needs to do a bit more to prove this isn’t just a suckers rally.

No doubt Tuesday’s breach of the 50dma flushed out a lot of weak holders and triggered a wave of stop-loss selling.  But we quickly  regained our footing after that autopilot selling exhausted itself and now many of those sellers are regretting their momentary weakness.  So where does this leave us?  The bears are uncertain of their position given the recent rebound and the bulls are uncertain given the recent sell-off.  If the recent sell-off was the best the bears could manage, we’ll head higher from here.  But on the other hand, if the last two-days mediocre volume rally is the best the bulls can muster, then we could very well head lower once the buy-the-dip crowd runs out of money.

The truth is I have no idea what direction this market is leaning and it could break either way and we simply need to wait for that confirmation, either a follow-through day to the upside, or a breakdown to the low side.

But this recent check-back to the 50dma has been productive given how long we were above it and it will make it easier to resume the uptrend.  There are plenty of examples over the last few years of a quick 50dma check before resuming higher.  This quick pause and refresh keeps the indexes gains healthy and sustainable.

If we do resume the uptrend, look at stock that withstood the sell-off by staying within their recent trading range, these are the stocks showing broad support and will likely continue their climb higher.  This will make for good longer-term holds.  But popular stocks that sold-off and tested their 50dma, and even broke it, will have the best opportunity for a quick profit as they bounce back.  But rather than try to pick a bottom, wait to buy the high volume bounce.

The next two days will tell us a lot about the quality of this rebound.

Rebound from sell-off

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily

The S&P500 rebounded nicely this morning, up 1% and is back in line with the ~1370 support level.  Is this the all clear signal to start buying again?  It would be nice if the market was that predictable, but one day does not make a rally.  Using CAN SLIM follow through rules, it takes at least 4 days to signal a legitimate rally attempt.  By showing constructive price action over 4+ days holds the market to a higher standard and helps us sidestep inevitable head-fakes and false bottoms.  Having a delayed confirmation might make us a little late and miss some bottom-picking profits, but the lower risk of getting caught up in a false-positive makes waiting the prudent move.  People buying at these levels are simply trying to catch a falling knife and most often that is a fools game, but that sure doesn’t stop people from trying.

We are just one week removed from 4-year highs in the S&P500, so this wouldn’t even qualify as a correction if we are bouncing already.  Typical corrections last several weeks, so if anyone feels that a correction is in order, they should be highly suspicious of this rally attempt.

Many leading stocks are taking a drubbing over the last few days.  INVN looks downright broken, but the upshot is it continues holding at previous support at $15.  This level is probably make or break for the stock.

KORS took a hit yesterday, dropping 8% after holding up so well over the last couple months.  But it is finding support at the 50dma and still holding comfortably above the gap-up on last quarter’s earnings.  This will be one to keep an eye on for when the market firms up and resumes the uptrend.

LNKD has traded sideways since its earnings gap, but given the price action of the rest of the leaders, sideways is actually demonstrating strength.  Again another one to keep an eye on.

Other names are finding support at the 50dma too like BWLD.  Depending on the length of this market pullback, if it is a short one, 50dma bounces could be the best way to get into leading stocks that were previously extended from buy-points.

And of course there is everyone’s favorite, AAPL, that is marching to the beat of its own drummer and completely oblivious to any weakness in the broader market.

Complacency turning into anxiety

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily chart breaking the 50dma.

Rough morning for the markets as the SPX opened above the 50dma, but soon sliced through it on elevated volume.  The period of complacency is quickly coming to an end and there is a lot of stop-loss selling as we fall through the recent support level of ~1370.  Of course the ironic thing is this accelerated selling is exactly what we need in order to find a bottom. The rush for the exits will allow us to flush out the weak holders and set the foundation for a bounce once this surge of selling exhausts itself.

For anyone sitting on cash, hold tight for the moment as the selling might not be done just yet, but we are getting closer to the point of maximum pain that will trigger the bounce.  Now is the time to start looking for buying opportunities as other people are cutting bait and rushing for the exit.  Their impulse is your opportunity.

But while we will see a bounce over the new few days, the bigger question is if this bounce will resume the uptrend, or be a sucker’s rally before turning lower.  At this point it is hard to gauge because we still have not had a chance to get a sense of investor attitudes after the sell-off and bounce.  The more fearful the sell-off is, the better the probability for a sustained bounce afterward.  But if we get too many buy-the-dip people rushing in too soon, we’ll probably have some additional downside remaining and will probably see a two leg correction. So until we have more information, it would be best to view the upcoming bounce as a short-term trading opportunity and then let the sentiment and price action determine if you need to cash out for a quick profit or hold on for more gains.

As always, stay safe.