LA: Rally continues

S&P500 weekly at end of week

Weekly Review and Look Ahead

Another modest weekly gain, but volatility picks up.  AAPL is rallying on rumors and hope, but will Tim Cook deliver?

MARKET BEHAVIOR

The market finished fractionally higher in a week that provided the largest volatility we’ve seen since the Fiscal Cliff pop.  These swings show there is still indecision in the markets, but for all the attempted selloffs, the market held firm at 1500 and finished at a new high.

The market is 56-points above the 10-week moving average and 112-points above the 40-week moving average.  The faster 10wma turned up and is keeping pace with the market, trailing the index by only 3.6%.

MARKET SENTIMENT

Bears continue trying to take down this “overbought” market, but are helpless to stop it.  We saw three legitimate attempts to break this rally, but each one failed because the wider group of holders was unwilling to join the selling.  From a supply and demand viewpoint, each selloff shook out weaker holders, meaning those left holding stocks are confident in their positions and their resolve is keeping supply tight.

The new highs are also intensifying the pressure on money managers underweight this market.  “Smart money” had a horrible 2012 and 2013 is starting with a case of deja vu.  It is hard to predict how long these guys can sit out, but it looks really bad when dumb index funds are outperforming smart money by multiple percentage points.

TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

Expected Outcome:
While we saw some of the widest swings in over a month, the weekly gain was modest.  Often directional rallies top on one of the largest weekly gains of the move, and by that measure this rally still has room to go.  The high probability trade remains to the upside.

Alternate Outcome:
Every rally ends and this one will be no different, but the challenge is figuring out when.  Money is made knowing the difference between what is real and what is just noise.  Keep a close eye on 1505.  If we cannot escape 1500, that will indicate this market is running out of new buyers and we should prepare for an imminent pullback.

AAPL weekly at end of week

INDIVIDUAL STOCKS

AAPL climbed into the post-earnings gap on rumors and hope.  Tim Cook is speaking this week and traders are looking for hints at a more generous plan to return money to shareholders.  If Cook doesn’t say what investors want to hear, look for AAPL to selloff sharply.  And even if they get what they want, look for significant resistance at $500 as many regretful owners try to get out at break-even.

Stay safe