Capitulation bottom

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

It was another brutal day, smashing through prior support at 1,965 and ultimately closing under 1,950. Volume was some of the highest we’ve seen all year as traders reacted to both headlines and technical weakness. But the thing we must remember is routine dips only happen when everyone thinks the market is on the verge of plunging even lower. If everyone was confident this was little more than a buyable dip, they wouldn’t sell. If no one sells, prices don’t dip. Therefore by rule, to get the dip, we always need to scare a large number of people into selling. And clearly we’ve done that here. But what comes next? Is this really just another vanilla dip? Or the start of a larger correction?

Despite all the prognostications of the bull’s demise, we haven’t done any real technical damage yet and the up-trend remains comfortably intact. The real threat won’t come until we undercut August’s dip to 1,900, making a new lower-low. Bouncing anytime in the next 40-points still counts as a higher-low and extends this resilient bull market.

The real test will come in the next few days. Capitulation bottoms typically smash through support on huge volume. This is the point of maximum pain where previously confident owners cannot bear the mounting regret of not selling earlier and reactively pull the plug. Unfortunately for many, this breaking point typically happens near the bottom of the move. Once the last wave of impulsive selling washes through the market, supply dries up and we bounce. Today’s dip had all the hallmarks of a traditional capitulation bottom.

But nothing in the market is ever clear-cut and one-sided. Rather than bounce, there is the real possibility today’s weakness will convince even more owners to sell in coming days, once they are pushed to their breaking point. Nothing rattles confidence like seeing everyone else running for cover and a bad open could lead to another bloodbath.

This appears like another cookie cutter dip and capitulation bottom, but we will know the answer for sure in a couple of days. A decent trade is buying the dip and using recent lows as a stop.

Jani