Category Archives for "End of Day Analysis"

Jan 14

When chasing your tail is the smart trade. Plus what to do with TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis , Free CMU

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 went for another wild ride on Friday.

The index gapped lower at the open, but as is often the case with opening gaps, supply dried up within minutes and prices bounced back to breakeven. (I’ll get into the reasons why this happens so often in another post. Sign up for free email alerts so you don’t miss it.)

Unfortunately, the relief was short-lived and prices quickly slumped back near the opening lows when dip buyers failed to show up and support the early buying.

But rather than crash through the lows and trigger another wave of panic selling, supply dried up for a second time and the index actually bounced back to breakeven, even managing to eke out a small, 4-point gain by the end of the day.

Phew, that was a mouthful and it was definitely a topsy-turvy session. But what it wasn’t was another rout. Bears had the perfect setup to launch another big wave of panic selling, but they couldn’t get stock owners to play along. And that’s a pretty good indication bulls are still in control of this market.

As I often remind readers, it’s not how we start but how we finish that matters most. And while it is hard to get excited about a measly 4-point gain, that is actually a respectable win given where the index spent most of the session.

In fact, I was encouraged enough by this price action to start buying back in. If this market was fragile and vulnerable to a larger collapse, it would have happened Friday. The fact we closed well above early lows tells me this market wants to go higher, not lower.


To the untrained eye, it looks like I am chasing my tail these last two weeks because I keep getting in and out of the market. (And it definitely feels like I am chasing my tail!)

I sold the initial dip at my stops in the upper 4,700s. Then I bought the first bounce late last week but ended up getting dumped out during last Friday’s pathetic close. I tried again this Monday, buying that impressive bounce. That trade worked well until Thursday’s interest rate second-guessing told me it was time to get out again. And then as I wrote above, I bought back in Friday afternoon.

I hate buying and selling this often. But that’s what my trading plan tells me to do at each of these junctures and I know better than to question my trading plan. When done right, my trading plan A) keeps me safe and B) makes sure I am in the right place at the right time to take advantage of the next big move.

If that means I have to chase my tail every once in a while, so be it.

While I collected a small profit this week arbitraging these whipsaws, that’s not the reason I’m selling these dips and buying these bounces. I’m doing it to protect myself from a larger selloff.

I will be the first to admit I can’t predict the future and I don’t know if this pullback will bounce at 4,600, 4,400, or 4,200. What I do know is it doesn’t matter if this is a 200 point pullback or a 600 point pullback, I don’t want to hold through either of those pullbacks.

When I move to the safety of the sidelines, I no longer care if it is a 200 point or a 600 point pullback. And as soon as I’m in cash, the first thing I’m doing is looking for the next buying opportunity so I can get back in.

Maybe Friday’s buy will prove to be a mistake. And I’m okay with that. I simply get out and try again. Or maybe the market bounces nicely Tuesday and I add more.

Either way, it doesn’t matter to me as long as I’m standing in the right place at the right time.

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TSLA took a big hit Thursday, but more importantly, the stock held $1k support.

While it is more fun watching a stock go up every single day, we know that’s not realistic.

TSLA is trading well enough to stick with as long as it remains above $1k support. In fact, for those that missed the first bounce, this pullback is giving you a second chance to get in.

Buy the bounce with a stop just under support.

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Jan 13

The obvious reason traders should have been ready for Thursday’s pullback. Plus, is there hope for the meme stocks?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

Thursday started off well enough for the S&P as it opened with a 0.2% gain. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and it was all downhill from there. By the end of the session, the index shed 1.4% and it closed at the daily lows. Ouch!

As the saying goes, easy come easy go. Luckily this drop didn’t surprise readers of this blog and we were ready for it.

As I reminded readers Tuesday evening:

First bounces have high failure rates. And this bounce is not any different. When everything starts feeling easy is when the market tends to pull the rug out from underneath us.

Now don’t get me wrong, I was not predicting a top Tuesday evening. I learned a long time ago trying to predict the market’s exact turning points is a fool’s game. But just because we are not predicting the market’s next move doesn’t mean we cannot prepare trades based on probabilities.

The market covered a huge amount of ground from Monday’s very nice (and very buyable) bounce. That does two things. First, the higher we go now, the less upside we have remaining in the move. And two, risk is a function of height, so the higher we are, the more room we have to fall.

Less upside and more risk? That is a poor buying environment and tells us we should be shifting away from offense and getting into a defensive mindset.

If I traders came into Thursday with a defensive game plan, they would have been perfectly positioned to protect this week’s nice profits.

Anyone playing defense Thursday is now we’re sitting on a pile of profits. But rather than pat ourselves on the back, it is time to start looking for the next buyable bounce. It could come as early as Friday so we need to be ready.

Maybe the selloff continues Friday and the index crashes through 4,600 support. Or maybe prices bounce off of this support level Friday morning. Either way, cash is the best place to be because we don’t have to worry about how big this selloff will be. Instead, we eagerly await the next trading opportunity. And the lower this goes now, the more money we make buying the next bounce.

If the market bounces Friday, remember, start small, get in early, and keep a nearby stop. And if the index closes at the upper end of the day’s range, add more.

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The meme stocks are getting killed. Sometimes things get so bad they become good. But in the case of GME, AMC, and HOOD, bad is just bad. These are momentum stocks and the momentum is most definitely negative.

Savvy traders abandoned these stocks when they violated support back in November. But if a person is still hanging on to these deadbeats, it isn’t too late to sell. Things will only get worse the longer you wait.

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Jan 12

What to expect when trading feels a little too easy. Plus how savvy traders are handling TSLA’s dips and bounces.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Wednesday nearly 150 points above Monday’s early lows. It is truly amazing how much ground the market can cover when it sets its mind to it.

But now that the crowd is finally breathing a sigh of relief because “the first selloff of 2022 is already over”, is it time for savvy traders to start getting nervous?

As I wrote earlier this week, first bounces have high failure rates. And this bounce is not any different. When everything starts feeling easy is when the market tends to pull the rug out from underneath us.

But just because this week’s bounce could fail doesn’t mean buying it was a mistake. Those of us that got in midday on Monday are sitting on a healthy profit cushion. That gives us a lot of margin to protect ourselves in case this rolls over. In fact, this trade has progressed to the point my trailing stops are already above my entry points. Even if this bounce fails, I could be “wrong” and still turn a profit. (Gotta love it when even your bad trades make money.)

Low risk, high reward. These are the setups we live for. By starting small, getting in early, and keeping a nearby stop, we were able to jump aboard this bounce in a low-risk way.

And if you missed Monday’s bounce, don’t worry, another one will be along soon enough, especially if Monday’s bounce fails. You just have to keep your eyes open and be willing to move when everyone is paralyzed by fear and indecision.

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TSLA’s latest bounce off of $1k support is also progressing nicely. Sell the pullback from $1,200 at our trailing stop and buy the next bounce off of support. What’s not to like about that?

Sure, most owners held through the dip and are just fine. But that’s only because prices bounced off of support. What happens when prices don’t bounce?

There is no reason to hold a pullback if we don’t have to. For independent traders like us, getting in and out is so easy, there is no excuse not to.

Because you know what? One of these dips won’t bounce and that will make all of the extra effort worthwhile. Just ask the long-term holders of GME, PTON, ZM, and DOCU what that feels like.

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Jan 11

Why both bulls and bears were right and how we profited from that. Plus how TSLA is giving us another great entry.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 recovered 100 points in little more than 24 hours. As I often write, markets bounce hard and fast from oversold levels and the last two sessions of buying frenzy definitely count as hard and fast.

While Powell and the Fed keep talking up near-term rate hikes to combat inflation, aside from this little wobble, the stock market doesn’t seem all that concerned. After five days of selling, supply already dried up and confident dip buyers have cut those losses in half. If this is the best bears can do, we don’t have much to worry about.

As I wrote last week:

While both bulls and bears will tell you they know for certain what is going to happen next….in reality, both sides will probably be right. Prices will fall further, initially proving bears right. But inevitably, every selloff finds a bottom and prices bounce, proving bulls right.

The market fell another 100 points after I wrote that … and it has since reclaimed all 100 of those points.

While this up and down is a wash for most investors, for the nimble traders among us, selling high and buying low is the name of the game. Rather than sit through these dips, hoping and praying they bounce, I get out, wait for the bounce, and get back in at lower prices.

Cutting my risk and getting paid for the protection? Trades don’t get any better than that!

Now, I will be the first to admit there are no guarantees in the market and this bounce could fail. But by buying midday on Monday, our entry points are well underneath current levels and we have a huge profit cushion. My stops are already at or above my entry points, meaning this is already a profitable trade for me even if prices collapse.

And guess what? If I’m wrong and the market noses over later this week, even better. I get out above my entry points, collecting a small profit for my effort and then I get to buy even bigger discounts next week. Go up and I win. Go down and I win. Learn to trade proactively and this could be you too.

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TSLA bounced nicely off of $1k support Monday, giving us an attractive entry for this popular high-flying stock.

For those of us that bought TSLA’s last bounce off of $900 and followed it up to $1,200 with a trailing stop, we locked in some really nice profits. And a few days later, we are already buying back in, ready to do it all over again.

I don’t know if this bounce off of $1k support will stick or not. But by getting in early and keeping a nearby stop, the risks are low and the rewards high. These are the setups we dream of.

If it doesn’t work, no big deal, I get out and buy the next bounce.

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Jan 10

Bears tried to break the market and they were broken instead. Plus, is Bitcoin so bad it’s good?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Monday proved to be a wild ride for the S&P 500 with the index traversing more than 150-points intraday.

While it felt like the world was ending in the first two hours of the session, as is often the case when the crowd gives up hope, stocks found a bottom and it was all uphill from there. In fact, this decisive rebound carried us so far we nearly erased all of those early losses.

Bears tried to break the market and they were broken instead. This price action is as bullish as it gets. Bears threw everything they had at the market and all of it bounced off.

While this won’t end our near-term volatility, it did go a long way toward shaking out most of the weak hands and with them gone, there are a lot fewer people left to sell the next bout of weakness. Every selloff eventually runs out of sellers and that is the exact moment when the gettin’ gets good!

Hopefully most readers honored their trailing stops last week and locked in a pile of profits before this morning’s blood bath took place. At most, we should have carried a small partial position through the weekend, and even that would have been dumped not long after Monday’s poor open.

But like every nimble trader, as soon as we are in cash, the first thing we do is start looking for the next buying opportunity. And wow, was that bounce off of 4,600 was a thing of beauty. Entry points don’t get much better than that!

Now that our early buys have 70-points of profit margin in them and our follow-on purcahses are doing nearly as well, it is simply a matter of holding and seeing where this goes. This has already gotten to the point where we can lift our stops to our entry points, giving us in effect, a nearly free trade.

Huge upside and nearly zero downside, gotta love that risk/reward. These are the kinds of trades we dream about. Hopefully you didn’t miss it.

But as is always the case, the market is anything but predictable and that’s what our stops are for. But as long as this reams above Monday’s lows, this bounce is alive and there is nothing to do but keep holding and adding.


Bitcoin went through a similar whipsaw Monday morning when it undercut $40k support. While this felt horrible for anyone that’s been holding since the $60k’s, for those of us that used trailing stops and locked in really nice profits months ago, this bounce off of $40k support is a great entry point.

Buy the bounce with a stop underneath $40k and see where this goes. I don’t particularly care for bitcoin’s long-term prospects as an investment, but I know a good trade when I see one. While there is a good chance this bounce could fail, this is a clearly defined entry point with a sensible nearby stop. Low risk, high reward. Even with a lower probability of success, that’s still a great trade and very much worth making.

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Jan 06

The smart way to trade this week’s selloff. Plus is GME finally getting its mojo back?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 is traded mostly flat following Wednesday’s 1.9% blood bath, finishing Thursday down a modest 0.1%

Half-full or half-empty? Both sides have good arguments here.

Not extending the selloff is a bullish sign. Collapses are breathtakingly quick. Stop to ask questions and you are already too late. So holding at these levels for a full day is definitely helpful and is the first step in a recovery.

But on the bearish side, there was little dip-buying Thursday. Prices bounce hard and quick from oversold levels, meaning we might not be oversold yet.

So which is it? While both bulls and bears will tell you they know for certain what is going to happen next, the simple truth is no one knows and only time will tell.

In reality, both sides will probably be right. Prices will fall further, initially proving bears right. But inevitably, every selloff finds a bottom and prices bounce, proving bulls right.

What should traders do during turbulent times like these? Leave our biases at the door, stay nimble, and only trade what is happening right in front of us.

Ideally, most of my readers were using sensible stops and bailed out Wednesday afternoon when the index undercut our stops. Now that we’re safely in cash, the first thing we start doing is looking for the next entry point.

Thursday morning gave us an interesting buying opportunity. Unfortunately, the opening bounce failed not long after it got started. But if we were disciplined and started small, got in early, and kept a nearby stop, any slippage from buying that early would have been trivially small.

Small risk, large potential reward, those are the trades we wait months for. Just because it didn’t work this time doesn’t mean it was a mistake. Give me a low-risk/high-reward trade like that and I will take it every time!

The market bounced again off of those mid-morning lows. Again, giving us another invitation to buy a partial position when it got above the opening levels. Again, start small, place a stop under the intraday lows, and wait to see what happens next.

While it would have been nice to see prices rally strongly into Thursday’s close, the market gave us an ambiguous close, deferring its next move to Friday. No big deal. These things happen.

Should we have held that small position overnight or pulled the plug?  That’s entirely up to you. If you like this bounce and are willing to let a small position ride. Go for it. A little uneasy, no problem, pull the plug and try again Friday. There are no wrong answers here.

And if a person feels like they missed a bounce, don’t sweat a few points here or there. Getting in 20 points late won’t matter much when the real bounce rallies another 200. More important is we get in even if that means missing the lows by a few hours. The timing isn’t nearly as important as most people make it out to be.

And if this isn’t the real bounce and we get dumped out again? No big deal. Trading small positions limits our losses and we simply wait for the next bounce.

Remember, periods like this is when we make our money. If this was easy, everyone would do it. But the payoff will be there as long as we stick with it and don’t give up.


GME popped as much as 30% in after-hours trade following reports it was getting into NFTs. If you don’t know what NFTs are, don’t worry, no one else does either. All you need to know is NFTs are the newest buzz term and companies embracing it is the equivalent of adding “.com” to a business’s name back in the 2000s. It’s good for some temporary hype, but real investors want to see the money and so far NFTs have been more hype than substance.

Even with this big pop, GME only reclaimed a few weeks’ worth of losses. This stock is in a strong downtrend and unfortunately a no TLA*, no matter how buzzy, is going to bring its momentum back. (*three-letter acronym)

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Jan 05

Why smart money was holding Wednesday morning and selling Wednesday afternoon. Plus what’s driving bitcoin’s selloff

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

A modest midday slump in the S&P 500 devolved into a late blood-bath after the Fed’s meeting minutes suggested interest rate hikes could be coming a whole lot sooner than many investors expected. That’s all it took to rain on the bull’s parade and send previously confident owners scrambling for the exits.

As I wrote yesterday evening, I was comfortable with the market’s recent price action. That even carried over to this morning’s modest slump. Everyone knows we cannot go up every single day and red days are a normal and healthy part of every move higher.

But that changed Wednesday afternoon when normal and healthy took a sharp turn into panic. While I was comfortable a few hours earlier, when conditions change, my outlook changes along with it. Only stubborn traders dig in and ignore the evidence in smacking them in the face. And luckily, I’m not one of them.

I came into Wednesday with sensible trailing stops spread across the lower to mid 4,700s to protect my profits “just in case”, but I was already pulling the plug on some of those positions long before those stops got hit. As easy as it is to buy back in, there is no reason to stick around when the tide so obviously starts turning against us. When the panic selling hits, I want to be one of the first to get out, not one of the last. And that means acting early and decisively.

Does Wednesday’s dip stand any better chance of succeeding than all of the other aborted selloffs the market shrugged off last year? Probably not. But as nimble traders, why do we need to pick sides? As easy as it is to jump out and get back in, why would anyone want to ride through a near-term dip if they didn’t have to?

Sell and see what happens from the safety of the sidelines is how I’m approaching this. If prices bounce Thursday, great, I’m getting back in. No harm, no foul. But if the selloff continues, even better, I wait for the next bounce and buy at even lower prices. That’s a win-win in my book.


Wednesday’s bloodletting extended to Bitcoin as cryptocurrency proves to be a follower and is nothing close to the alternative asset class proponents claimed it would be. If equities continue selling off Thursday and Friday, expect the carnage to take Bitcoin down with it.

But none of this should surprise readers. As I’ve been saying for a while, Bitcoin isn’t buyable until either it bounces off of $40k support or gets above $50k resistance. Until then, it is a no-touch.

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Jan 04

What the S&P 500 is telling us it wants to do next. Plus Bitcoin holders, what are you doing?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday was a mixed session for the S&P 500 as an early push to record highs fizzled and retreated into the red. While a bearish intraday reversal is never a welcome sight, the index bounced off of those afternoon lows and closed pretty much where Monday left off.

Ties go to the trend and even though the index is struggling with 4,800 resistance, the fact we keep holding near record highs is a win for bulls. Stocks fall from overbought levels fairly quickly and trading at these levels for over a week tells us most owners are fairly comfortable with these prices and few are rushing to lock in profits.

As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. At this point, it is only a matter of time.


Bitcoin is stuck in the mud. $50k’s been a ceiling since early December and this cryptocurrency keeps finding itself falling back to the mid-$40k’s. In a mirror of the equity index’s analysis above, the longer this hold near recent lows, the more likely it is to make new lows.

This was a sell as it fell through $60k support in November and December’s $50k violation was yet another reason to abandon ship. At this rate, we will be saying the same thing about $40k as this trades in the $30k’s.

Remember, only fools hold all the way down. Use trailing stops to protect your profits. It is far easier to buy back in after a bounce than it is to wish something higher after a big pullback.

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Jan 03

Only fools give up on something that is working, plus TSLA answered our prayers

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 added 0.6% on the first trading session of 2022 is flirting with 4,800 again.

The calendar rolls over and we get more of the same. But this was largely expected. Nothing meaningful changed over the weekend and the market started right where it left off.

Without a doubt, something will change this year and 2022 won’t be as easy or generous as 2021 was, but these things take time to develop and it will come on gradually, to the point we won’t even realize something changed until after it is already well underway. But that’s the way this usually works. All too often people trade what worked in the past, not what is happening in front of them.

But rather than try to get ahead of the market, as independent traders, we are nimble enough to simply follow the market’s lead. If this wants to rally through January. Fine, we stick it. If it keeps going through February and March, even better. But when it finally noses over, we get out and look for the next opportunity. Until then, stick with what has been working.

No matter what we think the market should be doing, it is acting well and that means we stick with it. Weak and vulnerable markets don’t keep setting record highs. This rally will die like all of the others that came before it, but this is not that time. Until prices actually start to decline, we continue giving it the benefit of doubt.

Our stops are in the lower to mid 4,700s and until something changes, we keep doing what has been working.


Look at that, TSLA is back at $1,200. Funny how that works.

People always pray for their favorite stocks to pull back so they can add more. But every time the market answers their prayers, most people lose their nerve and instead of buying more, they impulsively sell what they have for a discount.

And wouldn’t you know it, as soon as these people bail out, prices bounce back to the highs. But that’s the way this game works. Always has, always will.

Profits come to proactive traders that move before everyone else. Everyone else gives all of their money to these savvy traders. It’s time to stop following and start leading.

As I wrote a few weeks ago:

I still like this company and stock, but I’m a trader and that means I sell things that are going down. I’m happy to buy this when it bounces, but until it gets back above $1k, I don’t have any interest. And in fact, I actually hope it falls back to $800 support because that gives me even more opportunity to profit from the rebound.

TSLA only fell to $900, but that was still plenty of profit opportunity for the people those of us that were acting instead of reacting.

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Dec 21

Why the index bounced back so quickly, plus a less painful way to trade Bitcoin at these levels

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.1% on Monday and gained 1.8% on Tuesday. So much for all the fear-mongering and panicked selling.

But this outcome was largely expected. As I wrote Monday evening:

The final weeks of the year are vulnerable to increased volatility because big money’s steadying hand already left for vacation. That puts retail traders in control through New Year’s. But lucky for us, these impulsive traders don’t have much money and they run out of ammunition quickly. While they can drive dramatic swings like Monday’s open, they struggle to sustain these moves and they tend to bounce back fairly quickly.

Barely twenty-four hours later and the market already erased all of Monday’s losses. After impulsive retail traders ran out of things to sell, prices bounced. Funny how that works.

As for how I’m trading this, as I wrote last week, I sold a good portion of my trading positions when the first wave of selling undercut my trailing stops. But as soon as I’m out, the first thing I’m doing is looking to get back in. Again, from Monday evening’s post:

Like any good trader, I don’t know when to give up. When the index bounced above Monday’s opening levels and again when it closed fairly robustly, I went ahead and bought more partial positions. And if stocks open well Tuesday morning, I’ll add even more.

Trading around these whipsaws can feel like a waste of time, but it is dirt cheap insurance protecting us against a much larger selloff. While I was fairly certain this latest dip would bounce, I’m not willing to bet my trading account on it. Selling and buying back in is so easy, there is no reason not to do it. Sometimes I even manage to pocket a few bucks buying back in at lower levels.

No one is getting rich arbitraging a handful of points like this, but protection against a larger selloff and actually making a few bucks in the process? It’s hard to beat that risk/reward.


Bitcoin has been mirroring the equity market and this cryptocurrency rallied nicely on Tuesday too. But as I’ve been saying for a while, I’m not interested in this until it gets back above $50k support.

For those that have been reading these posts for a while remember I was saying the exact same thing about $60k back in November. Now that we’re $10k lower, traders that heeded that advice are glad they did.

As I often say, it is better to be a little late than a lot early. Bitcoin will probably get above $50k. But it might need to go through the $30k’s first. There is no reason to ride through that dip if we don’t have to.

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Dec 20

What really drove Monday’s tumble and why we should expect a bounce, plus how savvy traders are dealing with $TLSA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 gapped 1% lower at Monday’s open after Biden’s Build Back Better bill died in the Senate and Omicron spread like wildfire over the weekend.

But the selling didn’t accelerate as most owners continued holding their favorite stocks and the index finished the day almost exactly where it started. This definitely counts as a bad day for stocks, but after the dreadful open, the herd did’t rush for the exits and that follow-up stability was nice to see.

The final weeks of the year are vulnerable to increased volatility because big money’s steadying hand already left for vacation. That puts retail traders in control through New Year’s. But lucky for us, these impulsive traders don’t have much money and they run out of ammunition quickly. While they can drive dramatic swings like Monday’s open, they struggle to sustain these moves and they tend to bounce back fairly quickly.

I don’t read much into what retail traders are doing this week, but the price is the price and we have to respect these moves even if we don’t believe they will stick around.

We don’t change our trading plan just because this is a holiday week and little guys are running amok. We sell violations of our stops and we buy the (inevitable) bounces by starting small, getting in early, and keeping stops nearby.

Monday morning’s slump under the opening levels forced me out of my partial positions for a loss, but the potential for this to happen is why Friday’s purchase was only a partial position.

But like any good trader, I don’t know when to give up and when the index bounced above Monday’s opening levels Friday afternoon and actually closed fairly robustly, I went ahead and bought another partial position. If stocks open well Tuesday morning, I’ll add even more. If not, no big deal, I pull the plug and keep watching and waiting for the bounce. Maybe Wednesday.

But the market traded well Monday afternoon, all things considered, and I don’t see any panic in the midday price-action, which is a good first sign.


Bad keeps getting worse in TSLA as last week’s violation of $1k is now testing $900.

This stock is down nearly 30% from this Fall’s highs and is just another reminder that holding too long is just as bad as selling too early.

Always follow highfliers like this with a trailing stop because these things fall even quicker than they rise.

While no one wants to sell their favorite stocks, selling our biggest winners is the only way we make money in this game.

If $900 doesn’t hold, then $800 is up next.

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Dec 17

When a half-full market becomes half-empty, plus why TSLA is on the naughty list

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

On Friday the S&P 500 tested and bounced off of 4,600 support for the second time this week.

Between the exploding number of breakthrough Omicron cases and the Fed accelerating taper and rate hikes plans, it was a busy week for financial newsrooms. But for as dire as the headlines seem, the market was surprisingly resilient and remains steady near all-time highs.

Sure, the index finished the week down nearly 2%. But last Friday was an all-time closing high and having traded through 2013’s Taper Tantrum, the market “only” falling 2% after the Fed penciled in three rate hikes next year is actually quite impressive.

If this market was truly overbought and fragile, these headlines could have knocked us down 5% or more in the blink of an eye. The fact it took five whole days to shed a measly two percent is fairly impressive.

The counter point to the above half-full argument is the index is hovering just above recent lows. Fall a little further and that violation of support could unleash a big wave of stop-loss driven selling.

So, the question is if we should be focused on the half-full side of the market or the half-empty?

Well, surprisingly enough, the answer is pretty easy. Above 4,600 is half-full territory and anything under 4,600 puts us in the half-empty side of the glass. Trade accordingly.


While I’m giving the S&P 500 the benefit of the doubt, TSLA’s violation of $1k support this week puts the stock on my naughty list.

I still like this company and stock, but I’m a trader and that means I sell things that are going down. I’m happy to buy this when it bounces, but until it gets back above $1k, I don’t have any interest. And in fact, I actually hope it falls back to $800 support because that gives me even more opportunity to profit from the rebound.

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Dec 16

The thing bears don’t understand about this bull market, plus an update on TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

It’s been a volatile few sessions for the S&P 500 as the index keeps jumping between dramatic up and down moves.

While we’ve been living with elevated volatility since late November, every bit of down has been matched by an equal amount of up. While these fear-mongering headlines and choppy price action are good for Tum’s sales, equities seem to be taking everything in stride.

If there is one thing we know about stock market crashes, they are breathtakingly quick. Stop to ask questions and you get left holding the bag. But here we stand, three weeks from the initial Omicron outbreak and the index is still within 1% of all-time highs. If these headlines were going to break us, it would have happened by now.

To further compound bears’ confusion, Wednesday the Fed told us to expect three interest rate hikes next year. Conventional wisdom warns us that rate hikes are bad for stocks, yet prices surged 1.6% on the news.

As I’ve been saying for a while, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. Bears have thrown everything they can at this bull and it keeps shrugging it off. If this was going to crash, it would have happened by now. Argue with this market at your peril.

No doubt this bull will die like all of the others that came before it. But this is not that point and bears will continue getting humiliated by this stubborn bull.


TSLA slipped under $1k support last week and that was our final, undeniable signal to get out. Smart traders were already peeling off profits as the stock slipped from $1,200 resistance, but now that we’re under $1k support, there is no excuse to keep holding.

I’m not giving up on this stock and it will probably make higher highs at some point, but I don’t need to hold through the pullback in the meantime. And in fact, I’m looking forward to buying back in at lower prices.

For the time being, this doesn’t get interesting until it gets back above $1k. Until then, keep watching from the safety of the sidelines.

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Dec 13

How to handle Monday’s disappointing close, plus is smart money buying Bitcoin under $50k?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 set a new record closing high Friday and then proceeded to give it all back Monday. Easy come easy go, but that’s the way this goes sometimes.

I don’t mind occasional down days mixed in with up days, in fact, I prefer my rallies balanced this way. It keeps things from getting overheated and how healthy, long-term rallies progress.

That said, Monday’s close falls in the disappointing category because it finished on a swift wave of selling and closed at the intraday lows. Thirty minutes before the close, the situation looked pretty decent. But those final 15-minutes changed everything and left me with an uneasy feeling. Not panic, abandon hope, and run for the hills kind of feeling, but it was enough to warrant caution.

If a person is cautious by nature, they could have peeled off some nice profits near the close just in case. But that is only a partial position reduction to better manage risk. On the other hand, a more aggressive person could continue holding since the close was still well above our stops in the mid-460s.

Like a lot of trading, this situation falls in the gray area where individual discretion plays a major role in decinding what to do. Nervous? Sell some. Confident? Hold and see what happens tomorrow. Both are valid ways of dealing with Monday’s disappointing close.

But no matter what we do, anytime we sell, we are always looking for that next opportunity to get back in. If we sold anything Monday afternoon, be ready to buy a bounce Tuesday morning. And if Monday’s selling continues instead, always respect our stops spread across the mid-4,600s.

But no matter what happens Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, any near-term weakness is giving us a buying opportunity. No matter what the cynics claim, weak markets don’t keep setting new record highs. This remains a strong market and there is only one way to trade this and that is from the long side.


Bitcoin keeps hitting its head on $50k resistance and dip-buyers are nowhere to be found. This weekend’s quick poke above $50k didn’t last long and the cryptocurrency retreated back to the mid-$40k’s.

For me, this doesn’t get interesting until it can hold $50k. Until then this is a no-touch. As I often say, it is better to be a little late than a lot early. Just ask anyone that bought a few weeks ago in the upper $50k’s.

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Dec 08

The biggest mistakes people make trading dips and bounces, plus what smart money is doing with GME

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 added a modest 0.3% Wednesday, but that was good enough to make this three up days in a row and leaves the index within 1% of all-time highs. Not a bad result given all the panic selling we were experiencing only a few sessions ago.

But that’s the way this usually works. Prices don’t bounce until the crowd has given up and now a lot of impulsive sellers are left watching this rebound from the outside.

I’m a huge believer in using stops to protect my backside. There is never a valid reason for a nimble trader to hold through a larger pullback. But at the same time, I also recognize stops often get us out unnecessarily.

So what’s a trader to do when faced with these competing concerns of selling just before the bounce or holding through a larger decline?

It actually isn’t that hard if we start with a sensible trading plan.

First and foremost, never be foolish and cheat our stops by holding a falling market. I always get out when I say I’m going to get out.

But once I’m out, the first thing I do is start looking for that next opportunity to get back in. Maybe that causes me to chase my tail every once in a while. But you know what? I would much rather chase my tail than A) hold through a larger decline or B) miss out on the next big rebound.

As it turns out, tail chasing is really cheap insurance that helps ensure we sidestep the big declines while also making sure we are in the right spot at the right time to catch the next big wave higher.

All too often people get hung up, thinking a trade is dead once they sell and they have some phobia about getting back in. If it was a great trade before, it is probably still a great trade and there is no reason to avoid it because of a perfectly normal, healthy, and temporary step back.

As for stops, the best way to avoid getting out at the wrong time is by getting out early. Sell at the beginning of the decline when the first signs something is wrong emerge. Not the bottom of a dip when impulsive traders pull the plug after getting overcome by fear and regret.

As I often remind readers, start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working. Follow those simple rules and events like Omicron hubbub are nothing more than a blip on our way higher.


GME posted disappointing earnings after the close.

But did this actually surprise anyone? This is a retailer with an obviously obsolete business model.

Their last hail mary is Christmas shopping and if they cannot get their act together this quarter, the company won’t survive, let alone justify of $13 billion valuation.

At best, this is a $15 stock selling for $170. Get out while you still can.

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Dec 07

Why smart money was betting on the bounce, plus a savvy entry in FB is paying off

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 popped 2% Tuesday and the index is back within 1% of all-time highs.

So much for Omicron. But that’s the way this usually goes. As I wrote last week:

Trends are far more likely to continue than reverse. That’s because a bull market bounces countless times but dies only once…Bears have been wrong all year, so what are the odds they’re right this time? Yeah, not very good.

While this is really easy to say following two big up days, there was nothing easy about buying Friday’s late bounce and adding more money Monday morning. But from years of experience, personal reluctance is usually a really good sign.

As a rule, if I really want to make a trade, it is probably too early. And f I’m dragging my feet and trying to find an excuse to avoid a trade, that is usually a really good sign.

This was definitely the case last Friday. After stubbing my toe buying the previous bounces, it was hard to not get discouraged. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know these trades only work after most people have given up, so the key is being more stubborn than most.

As long as we have a sensible trading plan that is both nimble (getting in early and getting out early) and manages our risk (starting small), we don’t have a lot to fear from buying these bounces and being wrong.

Without a doubt, I got caught on the wrong side of some of last week’s whipsaws, but if the risk is a dozen points on a partial position last week and the reward is more than 100 points of profit on a full position this week, sign me up! I don’t mind being wrong a few times when it pays this well.

And now that the market’s bounced nicely, there is nothing to do but lift our stops and see where this goes.


Last week I asked if FB is so bad it’s good? 

Well, we got our answer this week and the answer is a resounding yes. FB is up nearly 8% from last Friday’s lows and anyone that bought the bounce is sitting on some healthy profits.

As I wrote last week:

Violating support before bouncing is an even more bullish trading signal than simply bouncing off of support because it shows selling capitulation and that bears have lost control of this trade.

That’s exactly what happened on Friday and Monday and this FB trade is setting up really nicely. Just like our index trade, lift our stops up to our entry point and see where this goes.

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Dec 06

A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Monday nicely higher as the pattern of alternating up and down moves continue.

Omicron remains a major headline, but while this variant is definitely more transmissible, it doesn’t seem obviously more dangerous than previous strains. In fact, some initial indications suggest it could actually be more mild, especially for those that have been vaccinated.

In separate news, the Fed is still hinting it will scale back monetary stimulus next year. While everyone loves free money, an economy that can stand on its own is even better for stocks.

Despite all of the fearmongering, the index remains within 3% of all-time highs. As much as cynics ridicule this bull, owners are comfortable and continue confidently holding for higher prices.

While conventional wisdom warns us about complacent markets, this bull has been fat, dumb, and happy all year and it doesn’t look like this latest crop of headlines is changing anyone’s minds.

Headlines don’t need to be good for stocks to rally, only less bad than feared and so far none of the worst-case scenarios are playing out. As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.


While buying bounces sounds easy enough, the market is never easy and most bounces throw a few curveballs at us first. If trading was easy, everyone would be rich and we know that’s not the case.

Sometimes we get caught on the wrong side of these whipsaws, but that’s just the nature of the beast. If we can’t handle a little up and down, then we’re definitely in the wrong line of work.

But as long as we stick to our trading plan, these speedbumps are fairly easy to navigate. Remember, success in the market isn’t about individual trades, but the cumulative result when we put all of our trades together.

While riding these whipsaws is frustrating, the reward will be worth it when we find ourselves in the right spot at the right time when the market finally bounces.

Remember, start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, only add to a trade that is working, and if we get stopped out, no big deal, wait for the next bounce and do it all over again.

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Dec 02

Why bears keep getting it wrong, plus is FB so bad it’s good?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis


Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Surprise, surprise, the S&P 500 recovered from Wednesday’s massive intraday reversal. Okay, no one was really surprised because Thursday’s 1.4% bounce was the market’s third rebound attempt this week.

“If at first, you don’t succeed; try, try again.”

You definitely have to give bulls credit for not giving up. The level of selling since Thanksgiving has been staggering, yet here we stand, only 3% from record highs. Talk about a can-do attitude!

As I often write, trends are far more likely to continue than reverse. That’s because a bull market bounces countless times but dies only once.

Maybe this bull market is dying, but smart money is sticking with the higher probability trade. Bears have been wrong all year, so what are the odds they’re right this time? Yeah, not very good.

The smartest way to trade this volatility is continuing to give the benefit of the doubt to the bull market while protecting our backside with a sensible stop-loss; ie, buy the bounce but keep a stop under recent lows.

Monday’s bounce didn’t work and neither did Thursday’s early rebound, but you know what, more often than not, the third time’s the charm.

It is hard to buy a third bounce after the first two unceremoniously dumped us out. But the harder it is to buy a bounce, the more likely it is to succeed. (contrarian trading)

I bought the bounce early because if I’m wrong, no big deal, I sell at my stops and wait to buy the fourth bounce.

Remember, getting in early is critical because 1) it greatly reduces our risk by giving us a healthy profit cushion, and 2) by the time the bounce is obvious, most of the discounts will be long gone.


FB’s recent price action looks downright dreadful. But is this finally getting so bad it’s good?

The stock is setting up for a nice bounce off of $310 support. Above this level, the stock is buyable. Under this key level and we get out. It really doesn’t get any simpler than that.

Okay, maybe it gets a little more complicated if the stock dips under $310 for a bit before bouncing back above this key level. In that case, we get out under $310 and buy back in above $310.

(Violating support before bouncing is an even more bullish trading signal than simply bouncing off of support because it shows selling capitulation and that bears have lost control of this trade.)

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Dec 01

A savvy index trade, plus GME is showing its true colors

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Wednesday started off well enough for the S&P 500 as prices popped more than 1% at the open. And a wave of follow-on dip-buying pushed the index even higher through the morning. By lunchtime, it looked like this was just another example of alternating up and down days.

But the afternoon session had other plans and hit the rebound with a sledgehammer, knocking it down more than 3% from the intraday highs, turning this into the largest bearish intraday reversal we’ve seen in a while.

Was the market spooked by the first confirmed American Omicron case? Or was it an echo of Powell’s Tuesday comments about winding down the Fed’s bond-buying program? Or maybe traders finally started looking down and realized just how high we are above the October lows?

Most likely it was a cocktail of all of these plus a few others that sent a shiver of second thoughts through the market.

No matter the source, the price action was dreadful; a nice bounce turning into a big loss. And not only that, we undercut Tuesday’s lows and closed at the bottom of the intraday range. Who knows how much further this would have gone if the closing bell didn’t stop the bleeding.

But these things are obvious to everyone that watched the day unfold. What readers really want to know is how to trade this.

Hindsight being 20/20, we know buying the bounce this morning was a mistake, but for anyone that bought the bounce, it actually wasn’t a bad trade. Get in not long after the open and the morning rally gave dip buyers a nice profit cushion. And when midday selling started, retreating under the opening levels was a clear signal to get out.

Buying near 4,610 and selling near 4,610 isn’t a bad trade. If this was the real bounce, the upside potential of returning to the highs would have been 90ish points. Ten-ish points of risk for a shot at a 90 point reward? I’ll take that risk/reward every day.

As it turned out, buying the bounce didn’t work and savvy traders move back to cash long before the day’s real selling started.

While insecure critics love to taunt people for making “wrong” trades, buying the bounce this morning was actually a savvy play. While it didn’t work out this time, there is always next time.

Maybe the selling continues Thursday. Or maybe this was the capitulation bottom and the next bounce is the real deal. Often the third time is the charm and it would be a shame to miss a really nice profit opportunity simply because we were too scared or stubborn to buy the next bounce.

I’m buying the next bounce and if that one doesn’t work, no big deal, I get out and try again next time.


GME tumbled under the all-important $200 support level Tuesday and the bloodbath continued Wednesday. If the Christmas shopping season can’t save this physical retailer, I don’t know what will. This is a no-touch under $200 and we could challenge $150 support before Christmas.

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Nov 30

The key to success in the market: Try, try, and try again. Plus an update on TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Fear of Omicron came roaring back Tuesday morning and Powell’s late morning comments about scaling back bond buying added fuel to the fire. By the end of the day, the S&P 500 shed 1.9% and undercut Friday’s lows.

While Monday’s bounce looked promising, often these things go through a few false starts before finally finding their footing. For anyone that tested the water buying Monday’s bounce, the clear signal to abandon ship was undercutting the morning lows near 4,620.

Any give-back stings a little, but as the saying goes, the first loss is the best loss. And that was clearly the case here with the index falling another 50 points from the sell signal before the close.

No one likes losing money, but if a person jumped aboard Monday’s bounce early and started with a partial position, the actual losses are fairly modest if they were disciplined and got out near 4,620. Given the potential reward of a bounce back to the highs, the risk-reward was definitely skewed in favor of the dip-buyer even if this particuar trade didn’t work out.

But now that savvy traders are out of the market, it is time to start looking for the next bounce. Maybe it comes Wednesday. Maybe it doesn’t happen until next week. But savvy traders know the bounce is coming and they don’t want to miss it.

We only have to look back a handful of weeks to see the last time this strategy paid huge dividends. While there were a few whipsaws near the October lows, as long as a trader stuck with it, they were rewarded with a nice, nearly 400 point rally when the move finally took hold.

While no one likes taking 10, 20, and even 40 point losses. If that’s what it takes to be in the right place at the right time to catch the next big 400 point wave, who’s really complaining about a little tail-chasing here and there?

Monday’s bounce didn’t work. And the next one probably won’t work either. But as long as we start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that’s working, we will minimize losses while guaranteeing we’re in the right place at the right time for the next big move.


TSLA keeps making hay following November’s bounce off of $1k support. Despite all of the noise in the broad market, TSLA’s bounce is alive and well. This remains holdable above $1k no matter what Elon is Tweeting or doing with his personal shares.

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