Category Archives for "End of Day Analysis"

May 18

Another profitable mistake

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 crashed 4% Wednesday in the biggest loss since 2020.

The weekly losses were partially offset by Tuesday’s nice 2% pop, but no matter how we try to rationalize it, -4% is a horrific day any way you cut it.

As most readers know, I bought last Thursday’s late bounce and that trade was working well enough that I was able to lift my stops above my entry points this week. And good thing I did because that allowed me to lock in a modest profit Wednesday morning before the selling really got carried away.

While no one is getting rich arbitraging these small swings, the good news is I could be wrong about the bounce but still make money on the trade. It is hard to beat that risk/reward! If I’m right, I make a big pile of money. If I’m wrong, I make a small pile of money. I will take those trades every day of the week!

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Now, it doesn’t always work out this way, but for people that are willing to jump aboard these bounces early, it happens more often than you think.

Now, compare my modestly profitable trade to the more conventional approach of waiting for confirmation before buying. Those people bought Tuesday’s 2% bounce, and unfortunately, almost every single one of them got dumped out for a loss Wednesday.

Getting in early is scary, but it is usually the safest time to be buying.

As for what comes next, there is no silver lining to a 4% loss. Dip buyers had the opportunity to jump aboard this latest bounce, instead, they sold it with everything they had. If this market was oversold, it would have bounced and not looked back. Instead, we were left with this bloodbath.

At this point, I can’t see any way around crashing through last week’s lows near 3,850 and making the bear market official. And from there, only one bear market over the last 70 years bottomed at -20%, meaning odds are good once we hit -20%, the selling keeps going.

I’m still waiting for that next bounce, and it is coming, but lower prices are ahead of us first. Lucky, I’m watching this carnage from the safety of the sidelines. (Aggressive traders can short this weakness but be ready to take profits quickly because these things bounce hard and fast.)

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May 17

Why buying bounces is a lot easier and safer than most people think

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis , Free CMU

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 added 2% Tuesday and finds itself more than 200 points above Thursday’s intraday lows. Not bad, not bad at all.

Blink and you missed a great trade. But that was always going to be the case. Stocks snap back from oversold levels quickly. Wait a day or two for confirmation and you missed a whole lot of gains. And more than just lost profits, buying this late leaves a person vulnerable to a routine intraday step back, like the 40-point retreat we saw Tuesday morning.

As risky as it feels, buying the bounce early is the safest place to jump aboard. Distilled to its core, risk is nothing more than a function of height. The higher we are, the more room we have to fall. And on the other end, the further we fall, the less room we have left to fall.

It never feels this way in the heat of the moment. Most people are most confident at the top and scared at the bottom. But savvy traders know real risk is the exact opposite of perceived risk.

Everything felt great in January, but with 20/20 hindsight, obviously, January was a terrible time to be buying and holding stocks.

Now that the index is nearly 900 points lower, everyone is terrified of stocks, but common sense tells us it is far safer to be buying stocks down here than it was back in January.

It never feels good buying stocks after big pullbacks and buying Thursday’s late bounce was anything but easy. But three sessions later and the index is dramatically higher. It’s gotten to the point where my stops are already comfortably above my entry points, making this mostly a free trade for myself.

Keep going and I make a pile of money. Retreat and I get out at my stops and collect a few bucks for my time. Not a bad way to be wrong. But the only reason this trade is working so well for me is because I had the courage to get in early.

But none of this will surprise readers of this blog. As I wrote last Thursday:

While I feel a little silly buying [Thursday’s] bounce given how many false bottoms we’ve had over the last several weeks, I did it anyway because that’s what my trading plan told me to do. I started with a small position and a stop under intraday lows.

Will Thursday’s late rebound stick? Probably not. But I buy all of the bounces because I’m not psychic and I don’t know which one will work. The only way to make sure I don’t get left behind is to buy all of them. And by starting small, getting in early, keeping a nearby stop, and only adding to a trade that is working, I can buy these bounces with very little risk.

Well, here we are a few days later and I’m sitting on a nice pile of profits.

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As for what comes next, most of the market’s failed bounces turned tail within days, so four days into this bounce and it already looks different than the ones that let us down.

There are no guarantees in the market and this one can fail at any moment too, but it looks good so far and that means I will continue giving it the benefit of doubt. Anything above 4k and we are doing well.

I’m lifting my stops and watching to see how far this rebound goes. Hopefully, you are right there with me.

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May 13

Did something change Friday? It sure feels like it

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis 

The S&P 500 finished Friday up 2.4%, the first meaningful gain in nearly two weeks and the first strong Friday close since March’s big rebound.

There were not any meaningful headlines driving Friday’s strength and instead, this is simply a routine bounce from oversold levels. Without any real meat behind this move, it could fizzle like all of the other failed bounces over the last several weeks. But as we know, markets move in waves and a bigger bounce is inevitable even if lower prices are still ahead of us. After falling 700 points over the last few weeks, even bears should be willing to admit a near-term bounce is imminent (at least the sensible bears).

Is this the start of a bigger bounce? It definitely feels like something changed, most notably the willingness to buy stocks ahead of the weekend. Rather than fear the weekend and get defensive, investors were finally willing to buy ahead of it.

But as is always the case, only time will tell and Monday’s price action will give us big clues about the market’s mood. Unfortunately, anyone waiting for Monday’s confirmation will be a couple of hundred points late to the party.

This remains a volatile market. While the risk of large swings feels scary, in reality, it actually makes this easier (and safer) to trade. That’s because once these things get going, they tend keep going. As we’ve seen over the last few weeks, violate support and the selling accelerates. But the same also applies in the other direction, once a rebound gets going, expect it to keep going as a wave of dip-buyers start chasing prices higher.

As long as we are decisive and make our moves early, it is easy to stay on the right side of a volatile market. Especially one like this that makes most of its big moves during trading hours (as opposed to large opening gaps).

I have no idea if Friday’s bounce will stick around next week, but it is acting well enough to give it the benefit of doubt. I bought Thursday afternoon’s bounce, added more Friday, and lifted all of my stops up to my entry points. Sitting on a nice profit cushion, even if this fizzles next week, I will get out near my entry points, no harm no foul.

One of these bounces is going to work, the problem is it will only happen after most people have given up. That simply means we need to be more persistent than most.

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May 12

The low-risk/high-reward trade staring us in the face. Plus a great way to play Bitcoin.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Thursday mostly where it started. While the final result sounds fairly innocuous, getting there was anything but a smooth ride. In mid-afternoon trade, the index was down as much as 2% before a late rebound came to our rescue and erased nearly all of those losses.

As has been the case for a while, not much new is going on in the headlines, ie everything that is broken has been broken for a while. Instead, traders are mostly arguing over how bad the looming US recession is going to be. And right now bears are winning.

As I wrote on Monday, if 4k failed, 3,840 was up next. Why 3,840? Because that represents a 20% pullback from recent highs and makes this officially a bear market.

Thursday’s pullback stalled at 3,858 before bouncing, but when it comes to the market, this isn’t hard science, and getting within a handful of points is close enough. At least that’s what Thursday afternoon’s dip buyers thought.

While I feel a little silly buying this bounce given how many false bottoms we’ve had over the last several weeks, I did it anyway because that’s what my trading plan told me to do. I started with a small position and a stop under intraday lows.

Will Thursday’s late rebound stick? Probably not. But I buy all of the bounces because I’m not psychic and I don’t know which one will work. The only way to make sure I don’t get left behind is to buy all of them. And by starting small, getting in early, keeping a nearby stop, and only adding to a trade that is working, I can buy these bounces with very little risk.

In fact, I’ve made more money over the last three weeks buying these quick bounces than I’ve lost. When the market gives us free trades, only a fool passes those up.

If this trade blows up Friday, I’m only on the hook for partial position and at worst, I take a small loss. But on the other hand, if this rebound takes us back to 4,300, that’s a whole lot of profits. Small losses versus large profits? Yeah, I’m taking that trade every time.

Buy Thursday’s bounce. If the index retreats in early trade Friday, I get out and wait for the next bounce. If the Thursday’s late bounce keeps going, then move my stops up and buy more.

Everyone knows markets move in waves and we’ve been going down for a while. Even bears should be willing to acknowledge we are setting up for a near-term bounce.


Did the cryptocurrency market just go pop? I don’t know. But 50% off the highs for Bitcoin is definitely not good. And unfortunately, most alt-coins wish they were only down 50%.

While I’m not a bitcoin fan, I do love bounces, and Bitcoin’s bounce back above $30k Thursday evening is interesting, especially if the equity indexes find a bottom Friday.

Start with a small position, a stop under $30k, and see where this goes. If the trade works, add more. If it doesn’t, pull the plug for a small loss.

Low-risk/high-reward? These are the trades we dream of.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $AMZN

May 09

Why the scarier this looks, the better it is for our trading accounts. Plus why we can’t trust NFLX, AMZN, and TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 crashed 3.2% Monday, closing under 4k for the first time in over a year. But this isn’t a surprise, as I wrote last week:

Failing to do anything with the biggest up-day in two years is not good. Not good at all. While I’m an optimist by nature, at this point, recent intraday lows near 4,130 are all but toast. And I doubt it will get any better once we get there. 4,400 didn’t hold. Neither did 4,200. And 4,000 is going to be the next victim.

Well, here we are a few days later and now we can cross 4k off the list.

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Now that 4k is a victim of 2022’s correction, the next big bogie is 3,840. While that number seems somewhat arbitrary, it is significant because that represents a 20% correction from recent highs and would turn this correction into a full-on bear market.

Markets tend to go where the crowd is looking and if we came this far, it wouldn’t be anything to see it take those last few steps to make this official.

The good news is once this becomes a bear market, we can finally stop talking about it. And once we stop talking about it, odds are good people will stop selling it too.

The silver lining is Monday’s 3% plunge was one of the largest down days of the year. As far as capitulation goes, the selling typically accelerates moments before the bounce. So a big tumble means we are getting really close.

The problem is we won’t know what is too far until after it happens. Maybe Monday was capitulation. Or maybe we have another 4% or 5% tumble coming Tuesday or Wednesday. As I said, we won’t know until after it happens.

But lucky for us, these things are super easy to trade because the resulting moves are large and in one direction. Once this thing gets moving on Tuesday or Wednesday (either up or down), expect it to keep going.

If that’s down, get out of the way and wait to pick up the pieces. If that’s up, grab ahold, keep adding, and moving our stops up.

If we can get past our fear, riding these swings is a fast and easy way to make money.


While we are setting up for a nice bounce in the indexes, be careful with NFLX and AMZN. These stocks will bounce alongside everything else, but don’t be fooled. These growth stocks broke their sacred contract with the market and stopped growing. (How dare they!) Any bounces in these stocks are nothing more than a quick trade. It will be six or twelve months before these are investment-grade again.

While TSLA isn’t in this boat just yet, nearly 40% off the highs and it will be a while before people trust this stock again. Maybe Musk is selling as aggressively as he is because he knows something we don’t know yet.

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May 05

A profitable mistake, plus what to do with the FAANG stocks

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis 

I often say the market loves symmetry, but holy cow, I did not expect Thursday to turn into a mirror image of Wednesday’s huge pop. But that’s exactly what we got, 3% up followed by 3.6% down.

Add those together and we ended up with a fairly tame -0.6%, but wow did the market take the long way getting there.

The market popped Wednesday when the Fed did exactly what they said they were going to do, which was raise rates by 0.5%. Nothing surprising there and Wednesday’s pop was more sentiment-driven than anything. While we didn’t get any meaningful headlines Thursday, if we poped on sentiment, we can just as easily collapse on sentiment. And that’s exactly what happened.

All of this leaves us mostly back where we started. But failing to do anything with the biggest up-day in two years is not good. Not good at all. While I’m an optimist by nature, at this point, Monday’s intraday lows are all but toast. And I doubt it will get any better once we get there. 4,400 didn’t hold. Neither did 4,200. And 4,000 is going to be the next victim.

While Thursday turned into a dreadful reversal, buying Monday’s bounce actually worked really well for me. As always, I started small, got in early, kept a nearby stop, and added to a trade that was working. Following those simple rules and I was sitting on a pile of profits Thursday morning.

While Thursday’s progressive selloff wasn’t what I had in mind, I got out at my nearby stops and watched the trainwreck from the safety of cash. Ultimately, Monday’s bounce didn’t work and I was “wrong”, but if I can make a pile of money being wrong, then I don’t mind being wrong. (And if this is what being wrong looks like, I can’t wait to be right.)

All of this said, I’m still far more interested in buying 52-week lows than shorting them simply because that’s the way the market works. The time to sell was back in January when this first started. Not now that we’ve fallen 700-points.

Remember, markets move in waves and even if this is a bear market, expect some big bounces along the way. While it didn’t happen this week, the next big bounce is coming. Chances are good it will follow next week’s test of 4,000 support.


If the indexes look bad, the FAANG stocks are appalling. AAPL is the best of the bunch because it is “only” down 14%. On the other end of the spectrum, NFLX was murdered, dropping a whopping 73% from recent highs. Of the group, FB looks the most interesting and is buyable once the index finds its footing.

Don’t touch AMZN or NFLX with a 10ft pole because few things are worse than growth stocks that stop growing. It will be a while before these stocks get their mojo back.

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May 04

When it works, it really works!

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Monday evening I wrote the aptly titled post, “Why I’m not giving up and neither should you.” In it I said:

Everyone knows markets move in waves, yet people always forget this very simple fact in the heat of battle. Sell at the top, not at the bottom. Buy at the bottom, not at the top. While everyone understands that, so few people actually do it.

I bought last Thursday’s bounce. It looked great. But as is often the case, it didn’t work. I got dumped out near my entry points for a very inconsequential breakeven trade, and now I’m buying Monday’s late bounce. See how that works?

Will I make money Tuesday? Maybe, maybe not. But with my stops already near my entry points, I don’t have much to lose if I’m wrong and everything to gain if this finally takes off.

Well, here we are two days later and man did this thing take off. (Trade this in a 3x ETF like I do and that adds up to real money!)

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The Fed jacked up interest rates in the biggest one-day jump in two decades. How did the market respond? By rallying 3% on Wednesday. Funny how that works.

But this doesn’t surprise long-time market watchers. “Sell the rumor, buy the news” is as old as the market itself. Stocks tumbled weeks ago when Powell told us he was going to raise rates by 0.5%.

And guess what? The Fed did exactly what Powell told us he was going to do. But stocks rallied 3% anyway. That’s because as is usually the case, the market overreacts to bad news and then it pops back when reality turns out less bad than feared. In this case, the market cheered when Powell said the Fed wasn’t considering 0.75% rate increases anytime soon.

Anyway, as I wrote in Monday’s post, markets move in waves and it shouldn’t surprise anyone when a month-long skid ends in a big bounce.

While catching this bounce wasn’t easy and there were several false bottoms along the way. By starting small, getting in early, keeping a nearby stop, and only adding to a trade that’s working, I got out of my “mistakes” for breakeven.

More important than the result of those little tests is that I was making sure I was always going to be standing in the right place at the right time. While those previous bounces fizzled and dumped me out near my entry points, I knew the big pop was coming. And as it turned out, Wednesday was that day.

As for what comes next, Monday very well could be a near-term capitulation bottom and that means higher prices are still ahead. For those of us that got in early, move stops up to protect profits and keep holding to see where this goes.

For those that missed the bounce, the bounce will probably continue higher over the next few days and weeks, but buying late means taking a lot more risk. This shows why smart money is buying when everyone else thinks they are acting foolish. The real bounce doesn’t happen until after most people have given up, and that’s why savvy traders are more persistent than most people.

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May 02

Why I’m not giving up and neither should you

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Everything looked promising for the S&P 500 when it retook 4,300 last Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and it was all downhill from there. The index entered a death spiral Friday morning and the selling didn’t stop until Monday afternoon when the index hit 4,060.

While that sounds dreadful, the silver lining is the index bounced nearly 100-points in the final hours of Monday’s session and actually finished in the green.

I know I sound like a broken record, but savvy traders sell strength and buy weakness while fools do the exact opposite. The time to abandon March’s huge rebound was back in March, which is exactly what I told readers back on March 31st:

If a person has been following this blog, they were sitting on a nice pile of profits after buying March’s spectacular rebound. But rather than get complacent by our good fortune, we were getting nervous at these towering highs and played defense by snugging our trailing stops up near 4,600.

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In case anyone’s counting, that was 500-points ago. People selling last Friday and this Monday morning are waaaaay late to the party.

Savvy traders look at a market that fell 500-points see a buying opportunity, not a reason to abandon ship.

Everyone knows markets move in waves, yet people always forget this very simple fact in the heat of battle. Sell at the top, not at the bottom. Buy at the bottom, not at the top. While everyone understands that, so few people actually do it.

I bought last Thursday’s bounce. It looked great. But as is often the case, it didn’t work. I got dumped out near my entry points for a very inconsequential breakeven trade, and now I’m buying Monday’s late bounce. See how that works?

These are the kinds of trades I live for. If I’m right, I make a boatload of money. If I’m wrong, I lose little to nothing.

Maybe Monday’s late buys work, maybe they don’t. But if this isn’t the real bounce, it will come eventually because markets ALWAYS bounce. Even bear markets bounce. In fact, bear markets have the biggest and fastest bounces of them all, so bear markets are some of the best times for nimble traders to buy the bonce.

Buy weakness, sell strength, and repeat as many times as the market lets us.

Will I make money Tuesday? Maybe, maybe not. But with my stops already near my entry points, I don’t have much to lose if I’m wrong and everything to gain if this finally takes off.

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Apr 29

Why smart money is getting ready to buy the bounce

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The market giveth, and the market taketh away. The S&P 500’s huge rebound on Thursday was swallowed by an even larger collapse Friday.

Friday’s -3.6% implosion was the biggest single-day loss since the depths of the Covid crisis. But as bad as that sounds, if you net Thursday’s gain with Friday’s loss, we are only down -1.1% from Wednesday’s close. Not great, but not set-your-hair-on-fire bad either.

This time it wasn’t Covid, inflation, interest rates, oil, or even the war in Ukraine. Instead, it was yet another tech highflier fumbling the ball. This time, the offense was committed by AMZN, falling -14% on disappointing earnings. Combine that with NFLX and TSLA and many of the highflying pillars that propelled the market to record highs in 2021 have come crashing down.

When the biggest and most important companies let us down, it hurts everyone and last year’s unflappable half-full mood has given way to this year’s half-empty outlook. Actually, it’s more like three-quarters empty at this point.

But as dramatic as these whipsaws have been, they have been amazingly easy to trade and avoid.

The hardest whipsaws to trade are the ones that happen when the market is closed. Those are the ones that jump our stops and leave us with a smoking pile of wreckage the next morning. But this market hasn’t been doing that to us. Instead, the majority of these huge swings happened during market hours, meaning nimble traders had plenty of opportunities to get in and out before the serious damage happened.

Anyone that’s been reading this blog knows I like buying bounces. Sometimes they work amazingly well, like March’s hugely profitable 10% surge over a couple of weeks. (Ride that wave in a 3x ETF and now we’re talking real money!)

But April has been far more stingy. Lucky for me, the bounces have been large enough that after jumping aboard early, I’ve been able to quickly move my stops up to my entry points, giving myself a free trade. When the bounce collapses the next day, I get out at my entry points for a breakeven trade, no harm no foul. Which is exactly what I did Friday morning.

Without a doubt, I would rather be making money. But when my “bad” trades don’t lose money, it is hard to complain too loudly about that.

Making money in the market is easy (everyone has good trades), the hard part is keeping it (giving back all of those profits in the next bad trade). But as long as we follow a sensible trading plan, we make big bucks when the wind is at our backs and we sidestep the losses when it isn’t blowing our way.

We don’t need to know what the market will do next if we are nimble enough to follow its lead. That means starting small, getting in early, keeping a nearby stop, and only adding to a trade that is working. Follow those simple rules and making money (and keeping it) gets a lot easier.

As for what comes next, markets rarely kiss the lows and bounce. Instead, they tend to crash through them, scare the hell out of everyone, and then bounce. While fear is really high following Friday’s collapse under 4,200 support, it will probably get even worse before the next bounce.

4,200 failed and 2022’s intraday lows near 4,100 are up next. Maybe after tagging that level, we will finally run out of fearful sellers and bounce.

Even if this is a bear market, buying bounces is still a very profitable strategy. The biggest and most powerful bounces happen in bear markets, so I’m definitely not giving up on buying bounces. As bad as April was, odds are good May will give us another tradable 30% rally in a 3x ETF. I sure wouldn’t want to miss that huge trade because I got discouraged and gave up too early.

Remember, savvy traders sell highs and buy lows. And right now we are a lot closer to the lows that the highs, meaning the next good trade is going to be a buy.

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Apr 28

Is the index finally buyable? Plus what to do with NFLX, TSLA, and AMZN

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Keeping the theme consistent, Thursday’s session was another wild seesaw day. An opening pop fizzled and retreated back to 4,200 support before bouncing hard and launching 100 points higher by the close.

As I’ve said previously, this remains an emotional and volatile market, meaning big moves in both directions. But after four days of testing 4,200 support, it is still holding. That’s no small feat. Now the question is if bulls can do something with Thursday’s monster rebound.

Sell the breakdown and buy the rebound. While that approach lead to a lot of tail-chasing lately, the daily moves have been large enough that if we get in early, we build up a nice profit cushion relatively quickly, making all of these low-risk trades.

While I haven’t been making money from these whipsaws, that was never the intent. The only goal is to be in the game with the lowest risk possible. While the first few trades didn’t work, one of them is going to. And that’s the one that makes all of this effort worthwhile. (March’s rebound covered 10% in a few weeks. Catch that in a 3x ETF and no one even remembers the first few failed bounces.)

Will buying Thursday’s bounce turn into our next mega trade? Maybe. Maybe not. But we can’t profit if we don’t try. By getting in early, we already have a nice profit cushion, making this yet another low-risk/high-reward setup.

Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. But if the worst thing that happens is I get dumped out at my entry point, why not give it a shot?


This is turning into an ugly month for expensive stocks. First, it was NFLX. Then TSLA. And now AMZN.

While the index looks like it wants to bounce, all of these falling highfliers are making it difficult. It will take NFLX and AMZN a while to dig out of these holes, but TSLA could be interesting since the volatility in the stock has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals. Buy Thursday’s bounce with a stop under the intraday lows and see where this goes.

As for NFLX and AMZN, they could be good for a quick, dead-cat bounce trade, but it will be months before these are investable again. Expect both of these to carve out a series of lower lows and lower highs over the net six months. And then they will probably be dead money for another six months before finally recovering.

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Apr 27

Finding support before the next bounce or pausing before the next crash?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Wednesday was another back-and-forth session for the S&P 500.

This half-full/half-empty session gave both Bulls and Bears something to crow about. Bulls are excited the early violation of support ran out of sellers and bounced. Bears see a rebound that couldn’t find buyers and slumped back near the intraday lows. And as is usually the case, one side’s half-full is the other side’s half-empty.

For me, Wednesday was largely a push, meaning the market was not willing to commit one way or the other, forcing us to wait for Thursday.

To be honest, both the Bears’ and the Bulls’ arguments are equally valid. A clear violation of support that fails to attract follow-on selling suggests we are running out of supply. But on the other side, bounces from oversold levels take off and they don’t look back. Slumping back near the intraday lows tells us there are just as few interested buyers.

What this really confirms is neither side has the strength to press their position and that is why moves in both directions failed. Wednesday’s indecisive price action was more about each side’s weakness than either side’s strengths.

This remains a volatile market and that means this standoff will eventually end in a big move. The problem is we don’t know which direction yet. But for nimble traders, that’s not a problem. We could be like everyone else and try to predict the market’s next move with a 50% chance of being wrong, or we could simply follow the market’s lead and have a 100% chance of making money.

Personally, I like the sound of that second strategy a lot more than the first one. And that’s the way I’m trading this. I’m ready to buy the next bounce and I will be ready to sell the next breakdown. (Start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a position that’s working.)

If I know this will eventually resolve with a big move in one direction or the other, all I need to do is be patient, wait for that move to start, and then grab hold. I’m happy to let everyone else argue over what should be happening. Don’t mind me, I will be over here profiting from what is happening.

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Apr 26

Why even bulls should expect lower prices. Plus what the market is trying to tell Elon.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Bad gets worse for the S&P 500 as Monday’s rebound gives up the ghost and the index tumbles under 4,200 support.

While not quite the lowest levels of the year, we are not far away and the market rarely gets this close without shattering such widely watched levels.

I’m still looking for a buyable bounce, but this one is quickly shaping up as a double bottom, meaning the second bottom undercuts the previous low, usually by a meaningful amount. It’s gotta be shocking enough to convince all the fence-sitters to sell.

But not to despair, once those weak holders abandon ship, supply dries up and prices bounce. Hence why double bottoms are such reliable trading patterns.

(Or you know, the market could fall another 2,000 points in the biggest bloodbath since 2008. Either way, my trading plan is ready. Is yours?)

As I wrote yesterday, I bought the beautiful bounce off of 4,200 support. Obviously, that bounce didn’t work, but since I got in early, I was able to move my stops up to my entry points and that meant I didn’t lose anything when prices retreated Tuesday.

Free lottery tickets? Only a fool would turn his nose up at those and that is why I don’t mind buying failed bounces. For every two or three failed ones, I catch something spectacular, like March’s 10% surge, which produced some truly eye-popping profits when traded in a 3x ETF like I do.

But yeah, Monday’s buy failed, I got out at my entry points, and now I’m looking for the next bounce. Maybe it arrives Wednesday. Or maybe Thursday, Friday, or even next week. It doesn’t really matter to me. All I know is I will be standing in the right place at the right time when this thing finally pops and those profits will taste oh so sweet.


TSLA got murdered when it was revealed Elon plans on using his TSLA stock as collateral to buy TWTR. For anyone that’s been doing this for a while, they know collateral means margin calls. If TSLA falls into a slump, that gives the banks the right to dump Elon’s stock, adding fuel to an already falling stock price. That’s a recipe for disaster and is why TSLA fell 12% Tuesday. Luckily, my subscribers pulled the plug when the stock couldn’t hold $1k support.

If there is a silver lining to this story, it’s that TSLA’s tumble puts the entire TWTR deal in jeopardy. Hence why TWTR is trading so far underneath Elon’s offer prices. That tells us the market doesn’t believe this deal is going to happen.

Maybe the situation will change over the next few days, but at this point, neither stock is in favor of this deal. Maybe Musk will get the hint.

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Apr 25

Did you buy the bounce off of support? If not, why not?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Monday presented us with another boomerang session as the S&P 500 swung from -1.5% midday losses to finishing up +0.6%.

There were not any new headlines driving this whiplash and instead these gyrations were propelled by the market’s ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Fear the collapse or buy the discounts? That’s the million-dollar question.

While lower prices could very easily be ahead of us, the midday bounce off of 4,200 support gave us the perfect bounce entry. No matter how this trade turns out, it will be hard to go wrong buying this bounce. Start small, get in early, keep a nearby bounce and add to a position that’s working.

Anyone following these simple rules is already sitting on a comfortable pile of profits and can move their stops up to their entry points, giving themselves a free trade. Even if the selloff resumes Tuesday, we get out near our entry points, no harm no foul. And if the rebound continues, move our stops up and let those sweet, sweet profits come to us.

While bulls and bears are busy arguing over what’s coming next, I’m over here minding my own business and collecting profits. When it comes to partisanship, I’m an equal opportunity capitalist.

If the rebound continues Tuesday, lift our stops. If the selling resumes, get out near our entry points and wait for the next bounce. Simple as that.

This isn’t my first bounce buy and it probably won’t be my last bounce buy, but as long as I keep getting out near my entry points when these bounces fizzle and fail, I’m in great shape. The most important thing keeping at it so I guarantee I will be standing in the right place at the right time when this thing finally pops. Just like back in mid-March when I caught that 450-point rebound in a 3x ETF and was printing money.

And even if we are falling into a bear market, that’s okay too, because bear markets have the biggest bounces.

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Apr 22

Why this was actually a good week for nimble dip buyers

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

What a difference two days make. The S&P 500 was well on its way to recovering from April’s intermediate step back when the index popped above the 200dma Thursday morning. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and it was all downhill from there, with the index shedding nearly 250 points by Friday’s close.

To be honest, I really liked Tuesday’s bounce back above 4,400 support and I welcomed that rebound with open arms. Things looked even better Thursday morning following that opening gap higher. It really felt like this trade was firing on all cylinders. Nice!

Then Powell opened his mouth. From that moment on, the index did nothing but skid lower. Aa my dad loved to remind me when I was younger, easy come easy go…

While this late-week reversal sounds painful for a dip buyer like myself, it was actually an easy (and profitable) trade for myself.

By getting in early Tuesday, I was already sitting on a pile of profits by that afternoon and was able to move my stops up to my entry points. Then Thursday’s opening gap allowed me to nudge those stops even higher.

And that’s when the bottom fell out. But that’s not a bad thing. In fact, that’s exactly why we use stops. By that point, my stops were already spread around 4,450.

But the thing to remember is stops are only our last line of defense. There is nothing that says we cannot sell before they get hit. In fact, many trades are obviously broken before our stops get hit. And that was definitely the case with Thursday’s meltdown.

From the moment Powell opened his mouth, the market started skidding and it didn’t stop. That’s not what a good trade looks like. Anyone looking at that chart knew the market was broken and there was no reason to stick around waiting for our stops to get hit. Pull the plug and get out of the way.

Buy the lower 4,400s, sell the upper 4,400s, and watch the carnage from the sidelines. That was the story of my week.

Now that the index crashed through 4,400 support, things get a lot more interesting. Either the selling continues next week or it stalls and bounces.

From the safety of the sidelines, I’m fine with either outcome. If we bounce Monday, great, I’m a buyer. If that bounce doesn’t happen until Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, that’s fine too. In fact, that’s even better because the lower we go now, the more money I make when this bounces back.

Never forget, we cannot buy the bounce if we are fully invested. That means always be willing to pull the plug on trades that are not working.

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Apr 21

Turning lemons into lemonade

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Thursday was a truly dreadful session for the S&P 500 as an early 1% gain disintegrated into a 1.5% loss. It doesn’t get more ominous than a strong open turning into a weak close.

We can blame this intraday reversal on Powell when he was very direct in saying a 0.5% interest rate hike is coming next month and we should expect more of the same in subsequent months.

It’s been two decades years since the Fed raised rates in half-percent increments and while most investors knew this was possible given our absurd 8% inflationary environment, some people were hoping for a more measured runup in rates.

But to be honest, simply falling back to 4,400 support is not horrible. It was definitely a dramatic reversal, but the bottom hasn’t fallen out from under us…yet.

As bad as Thursday looks on a daily chart, it was actually a very tradable decline for those of us that were paying attention. We started high and then skidded in a methodical way through the day. We weren’t caught off guard by a huge opening gap. There wasn’t a nearly instantaneous selloff. Instead, prices simply ground their way lower. And lucky for us, these slow-motion declines are the easiest to trade because they make it super easy to get out at our stops.

And to be honest, with something as telegraphed as this selloff, there was no reason to wait until our stops got hit. It was fairly obvious early in the session something was wrong. And when a trade isn’t working, there is no reason to ride it all the way back to our stops. Never be afraid of pulling the plug early. Buying back in is a heck of a lot easier than wishing prices would go back to the levels we regret not selling at.

Tuesday was a great buying opportunity and Thursday sent us scrambling for cover. But that’s the way this goes sometimes. If trading was easy, everyone would be rich.

While obnoxious bears will taunt me for being foolish enough to buy Tuesday’s bounce. I got in early Tuesday and then I got out early Thursday. While this bounce didn’t work and I was “obviously wrong”, buying in the lower 4,400s and selling in the upper 4,400s isn’t that bad of a deal. If that’s what being wrong looks like, then I definitely don’t mind being wrong.

And guess what? Now that I’m out, I’m already looking for that next bounce. If I’m lucky, my next trade will be just as “wrong” as this trade.

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Apr 20

Why Wednesday’s price action was bullish, plus what the next 12 months in NFLX will look like

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Wednesday almost exactly where it started.

While flat is not as much fun as up, hanging on to all of Tuesday’s gains was a nice win for bulls.

As I’ve been saying since this latest test of 4,400 support started, real bounces take off and don’t look back. Last week’s failed bounces unwound their gains within hours. While Wednesday’s 24 hours of price stability isn’t enough to hang our hats on just yet, it is already doing better than last week’s fizzles.

As I wrote back on March 29th when the index hit multi-month highs:

Now that we’re at the highest point since the 2022 correction started and within 200 points of all-time highs, we should expect the rate of gains to stall, if not outright retrench in a very normal and healthy step-back. Retesting 4,400 wouldn’t be a surprise. 

And wouldn’t you know it, here we are testing 4,400 several weeks later. Funny how that works.

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But rather than freak out and predict a much larger selloff like everyone else, to me, this looks like the “very normal and healthy step-back” I anticipated back in March.

Rather than freak out alongside the crowd, we should be buying these discounts fearful sellers are so graciously giving away.

I have no idea if this is the real bounce or not. But I do know Tuesday’s buys are sitting on a pile of profits and my stops are already above my entry points, making this a free trade. If I’m right, I make a pile of money. If I’m wrong, I get out near my entry points, no harm no foul. Boy do I love it when trades work out like this.

At this point, there is nothing for me to do other than keep holding and moving up my trailing stops. And if I get stopped out, no big deal, I collect some small profits and try again next time. Being “wrong” doesn’t get any better than that.


I could write a book about what’s going on with NFLX, but the Cliff Note’s version is it is setting up for a very tradable dead-cat bounce over the near-term before resuming the long-established down-trend.

Swing traders can buy the next bounce for a quick profit.

Anyone still holding NFLX needs to be looking for an exit because as bad as this looks, it is going to get even worse over the medium-term. Use any bounces as an opportunity to get out.

And for the most aggressive traders, shorting the dead-cat bounce is probably the best trade going here.

As for what comes next, expect a saw-tooth decline with plenty of fool’s bounces on our way down to $140ish over the next six months. From there, expect this to turn into dead money for the next six months as people give up and forget about this stock. And then, and only then, will this finally become buyable for a longer-term hold.

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Apr 19

Is this finally the bounce we’ve been waiting for? Plus what to do with NFLX on Wednesday

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 shot up 1.6% Tuesday, easily retaking 4,400 support and reclaiming even more ground before the closing bell.

Monday’s violation of 4,400 support couldn’t go any further than 4,370 before it ran out of impulsive sellers and bounced. To be honest, that was a pathetic showing by the bears. If that was the best they could do, what are people so worried about? And now that the index is back above 4,400 support, all lights are flashing green.

Is this finally the real bounce? Maybe. Maybe not. But as a nimble trader, I don’t care. I jump aboard these things early and within hours, I was already lifting my stops up to my entry point, giving myself a free trade. If the bounce continues, great, I let those profits pile up. If the bounce fizzles and retreats, no big deal, I get out near my entry point and I get to try again next time. No harm no foul.

While critics claim I’m stupid for buying bounces that are so obviously destined to fail, I don’t mind. Any low-risk trade is worth taking no matter how unlikely it is to work. It’s like I found a pile of lottery tickets. Just because the first three didn’t payout doesn’t mean I give up and throw the rest in the trash. I will keep scratching until I find the one that makes it all worthwhile. And if they are all losers, no big deal, the only thing I lost was my time.

In March, I hit the jackpot, catching that 450-point surge in a 3x ETF. Will the next bounce payout like that? Most likely not. But since I like free money, I’m willing to give it a shot.

Buy the bounce above 4,400. Move stops up to our entry points. And if a person isn’t already fully invested, add more Wednesday if the index continues trading well. And if prices rollover, no big deal, get out near our entry points. Simple as that.

In fact, there is no reason to hold this all the way back to our stops. If this looks broken, then it is broken. Real bounces take off and don’t look back. If this retests support so soon after bouncing, it’s not the real deal. Get out and wait for the next bounce. Remember, buying back in is always easier than wishing stocks will go back to the levels we wish we sold at.

I love buying bounces, but I will never keep holding one that’s stopped working.


NFLX got murdered in after-hours trade after badly missing subscriber growth projections.

Growth stocks are great…until they stop growing. Down 25% after the close. Ouch!

But this is nothing new for NFLX. This stock is already down 50% from last year’s highs. Anyone still holding from those highs is just plain foolish. We only make money when we sell our winners and right now, anyone that bought NFXL over the last few years watched big piles of profits vanish. And worse than that, they let a great trade turn into a big loser.

It is impossible to make money in the market with a strategy like that.

As for nimble traders, I don’t mind buying bounces and Tuesday’s bounce was buyable with a stop under Monday’s lows. But every disciplined trader starts with a small position and lets a trade start working before adding more. While waking up tomorrow to a 25% haircut is painful, it hurts a lot less with a 1/3 or 1/2 position.

As for how to handle NFLX going forward, the stock will probably bounce early Wednesday. Owners can keep holding with a stop under the early lows and try to reclaim some of those losses, but don’t get greedy and be ready to lock in losses later Wednesday or Thursday.

As for opportunistic traders, can buy the bounce with a stop under those early lows.

This bounce will probably fail and if (when) it does, there is no excuse to continue holding under the opening lows. From there, the pain will only get worse.

But don’t take this stock out of your scan. In a few weeks, just when things look their most hopeless, there will be a very large bounce from those grossly oversold levels.

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Apr 14

Why Thursday’s fizzle could actually be bullish price action

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 stumbled into Thursday’s pre-holiday close, finishing the session under the all-important 4,400 support level.

Thursday’s dip wasn’t a make-or-break moment for the index, but it did reveal demand isn’t ready to power the next leg higher…yet.

It isn’t unusual for investors to be a little gunshy ahead of a three-day weekend. Big money is thinking, “Why take unnecessary risk here when I can just wait until next week to buy?” And given all of the headline uncertainty surrounding us, that cautious approach makes a lot of sense.

As poorly as the index acted Thursday, I don’t read much into holiday-affected sessions. In fact, I think the market could be setting up for a nice bounce next week. Slip to 4,350, squeeze out the last of the weak danglers, and then pop back above 4,400 support. (capitulation bottom) To my eye, that would be the perfect setup for a buyable entry.

Will we get it? Maybe. But there are no guarantees in the market and that is why I bailed on Wednesday’s bounce when the market retreated under my entry points.

While it feels like buying a failed bounce is a waste of time, getting out at the level I got in means the market gave me a free lottery ticket. If the bounce worked, great, I made money. If the bounce failed like it did, no big deal, I got out at my entry price and it didn’t cost me anything.

That’s about as good of a risk/reward as a person could ask for. (My favorite “bad” trades are when the bounce is a little bigger before fizzling and I actually make a profit by being “wrong”.)

Anyway, I’m out and looking to buy a bounce back above 4,400 support next week. (Start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working.)

Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn’t. But either way, my trading plan is ready for the next opportunity.

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Apr 13

Why savvy traders don’t give up

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Wednesday turned into another promising session for the S&P 500 as the index attempted a second bounce off of 4,400 support.

While it feels like we are chasing our tail when trying to catch the next bounce, that’s simply the cost of doing business. And I most definitely prefer tail chasing to the alternatives of holding a big tumble lower or missing the next big rebound higher. Compared to those alternatives, a little tail chasing isn’t bad at all.

I bought Tuesday morning’s bounce, sold when prices retreated back near my entry points Tuesday afternoon, and bought the next bounce Wednesday morning.

By starting small, getting in early, keeping a nearby stop, and only adding to a position that is working, getting in and out of the market hasn’t been a problem for me. And given Wednesday afternoon’s nice close, my stops are already near my entry points, making this another low-risk, high-reward trade. (That only happens when we are willing to act decisively.)

Maybe Wednesday’s bounce sticks. Maybe it doesn’t. But if I’m wrong and I get dumped out near my entry points, no big deal, I take my money and try again next time.

The most important thing is I stick with it because the real bounce is coming and I don’t want to miss it. (Every failed bounce brings us that much closer to the real one.)

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Apr 12

The best thing about days like Tuesday

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped Tuesday morning after inflation hit a new 40 year high.

While record-high inflation and rising stock prices don’t go together intuitively, that didn’t stop people from chasing that early wave higher. Apparently, a fair number of traders were relieved inflation was not even worse.

Unfortunately, that relief proved short-lived and stocks ultimately slumped under 4,400 support in late afternoon trade.

But as wild as the intraday ride felt, it was actually a fairly benign session with the index finishing down a modest 0.3% and just a hair under 4,400 support. Not exactly panic material.

As I wrote yesterday, I was out of the market and looking to buy the next bounce. Which I did Tuesday morning. But as always, I started small, got in early, and kept a nearby stop.

While that initial buy started working right out of the gate, by midday, it was pretty obvious the bounce was faltering and it was time to pull the plug on my small position.

The thing about bounces from oversold levels is they take off and don’t look back. Any kind of second-guessing like we saw Tuesday afternoon tells us stocks are not yet oversold and further weakness is likely.

While my initial stops were back at Monday’s close, there is no reason we need to wait until our stops are hit before we sell. When a trade isn’t working the way it is supposed to, don’t wait for the losses to pile up, get out and start looking for the next trade.

If Tuesday afternoon’s fizzle turned out to be a false alarm, no big deal, there is no reason I can’t jump back in. But most of the time when these things don’t stick, things are only going to get worse the longer we wait.

The greatest strength we have as independent traders is the nimbleness of our size. If we give that up because we are too scared to jump aboard an early bounce or we are too hesitant to pull the plug on a trade going wrong, then we have no chance at surviving this game against bigger, stronger, and more sophisticated opponents.

Big money has its strengths and we have ours. And we can both make money if we stick to our trading plan.

As for what comes next, I’m out and looking to get back in. If prices bounce Wednesday morning, then I get to do this all over again. The best thing about a failed bounce is it means we are that much closer to the real one.

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