Category Archives for "End of Day Analysis"

Apr 16

When to lock in profits in the index and what the FAANG stocks are telling us

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free End of Week Analysis:

After spending most of February and March consolidation between 3,900 and 4k, the S&P 500 finally broke out and launched itself nearly 5% in just two weeks.

Coil…spring…coil again…spring again…

So far everything is going according to plan. That said, 5% in two weeks is steep even for the most bullish of markets. That means at the very least, we should expect the rate of gains to slow down over the near term.

Expecting a slowdown doesn’t mean I’m bearish, just that I’m realistic and have been around the block a few times. Two steps forward, one step back.

That said, we don’t need to bail out of this market until the next dip actually starts. Keep holding for higher prices as long as the index remains above our stops in the upper 4k’s/lower 4,100s. Just because another 5% move is unlikely doesn’t mean it is impossible.

Savvy traders let the market tell us when it is time to lock in profits and so far this one isn’t signaling us yet. The biggest warning sign of faltering demand will be a couple of fizzles into the close. That is a good sign to lock in some profits proactively and we don’t need to wait for the market to hit our stops.


If there is one warning sign of a looming slowdown, it is the lethargic behavior of the FAANG stocks this week. These best-of-the-best stocks helped launch the 4k breakout, but these same stocks lagged behind badly this week.

If they get their act together next week and start outperforming again, all is forgiven and forgotten. But if their underperformance continues next week, expect this to weigh on the entire market and the near-term consolidation/pullback is upon us.

As we saw in February and March, the index cannot rally without the biggest stocks participating.

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Apr 15

How to protect profits in the index and the best way to trade $TSLA’s reversal

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped 1.1% Thursday and is up 8% in three weeks. (Trade that with a leveraged ETF and the profits are spicy!)

Three weeks ago investors were cowering from spiking Treasury yields. Now I cannot even remember the last time I saw an article mention Treasury yields. But that’s the way this always goes; buy the fear and sell the relief.

As good as this trade has been, only a greedy fool expects the index to surge another 8% by early May. I’m not suggesting people rush out and sell everything because “stocks are too high!”, but I am saying we need to be far more careful following a nice, one-direction run like this. (Everyone knows stocks move in waves.)

Keep holding for higher prices but move up our trailing stops and consider locking in some profits proactively if the index stumbles into the close on Friday or early next week.


Wednesday was an awful day for TSLA and things were only marginally better Thursday. The stock popped early Wednesday and challenged $800 resistance, but rather than chase prices higher, investors hit the sell button and the stock ultimately finished down 4%.

While I’m not going to give up on this stock because of one bad day, but this intraday fizzle was a huge warning flag. The important thing is the stock stabilized Thursday and the selling didn’t continue.

Everything is fine as long as TSLA remains above $700, but lock-in profits if this retreats under $700 because the selling won’t stop until it hits $600 support. (The most aggressive trader could short a violation of $700 with a stop just above this level.)

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Apr 14

What to expect from the indexes over the next few days, plus when to buy $GME

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 “tumbled” on Wednesday. Or at least that’s the way a 0.4% loss feels after such a pleasant climb following the 4k breakout.

This rally to the mid-4,100s has been a little too easy and as such, some near-term selling is inevitable. Nine up days over the last few weeks will most likely be evened out with several days of selling. (Everyone knows markets move in waves.)

That said, there is no reason to rush out and abandon this market simply because we’ve gone up too many days in a row. As ridiculous as this feels, nothing prevents this from getting even more ridiculous before the inevitable pullback. (Just ask all the people that sold at 3,800, 3,900, and 4,000.)

As long as this remains above our trailing stops in the mid-4k’s, keep holding for higher prices. While we might experience further near-term weakness, there is no reason to assume anything fundamentally changed and this bull market is still very much alive and well.


GME bounced back pretty hard following a long string of down-days. But until we get above $200, this is nothing more than another lower-high on our way back to $100. GME is definitely a buy above $200, but until we get there, this remains a strong short candidate.

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Apr 13

When to get worried about the bull market and what to do with bitcoin at $60k

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday was another record close for the S&P 500, this time cresting 4,140 for the first time ever.

These gains mean we rallyed more than 400 points since March’s Treasury yield pullback. That’s 11% over a handful of weeks if you play the normal game and a whole lot more if you take advantage of levered ETFs (like I do).

As boring as this market seems, there have been plenty of opportunities to make good money riding this gentle glide higher.

The looming complication is sentiment typically flips after becoming too obvious. A few weeks ago, it was obvious spiking interest rates were going to kill this bull market. And now it is obvious fundamentals don’t matters and prices will continue higher forever.

As contrarian traders, we need to be ready to go against the crowd. That does NOT mean buying a falling market or selling a rising one. That is arguing with the market and no one every wins an argument wit the market. But now that prices have gone too far in one direction, we need to have A PLAN to deal with the inevitable snapback WHEN it happens (and not a moment sooner).

The easiest and most most braindead way of protecting our backside is following this rally higher with a trailing stop. The most undeniable aspect of any pullback is declining stock prices. If prices fall under our stops, we get out. Easy as that.

There are other signs the rally is running out of gas, but none of those apply to an index that keeps making fresh highs. We can dig into those warning signs when prices retreat from the highs, but until then, keep holding for higher prices and continue lifting our trailing stops.

This rally will end at some point, but this is not that point.


Bitcoin broke out above the old $60k highs and added another 5%. So far so good. Keep holding for higher prices with stops just under $60k. If this breakout fizzles and retreats back into the consolidation, demand isn’t ready yet. But as long as this cryptocurrency remain above $60k, keep holding for higher prices.

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Apr 12

An easy index trade and bad news for $GME bulls

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 spent most of the day ever so slightly in the red, but that 15-point dip couldn’t stick and this stubbornly bullish index finished near breakeven.

No doubt this rally cannot remain this easy and brainless for much longer, but as long as it continues trading well, there is no valid reason to argue with what is working.

Trading is hard enough and we don’t need to make it harder by arguing with the market. Keep following the index higher and lift our trailing stops. This will run out of momentum at some point, but it will go a lot higher than most people think before it does.


GME‘s latest flirtation with $200 is ending in disappointment. I was impressed with how well the stock was holding near $200 and that often indicates the stock wants to break through resistance. But there always comes a point where resting turns into stalling. As I wrote last week:

GME is a buy above $200 but it is struggling to close the deal and it cannot get above this key resistance level. Fail to deliver on this obvious breakout and this starts looking more like stalling than resting and we need to be extremely careful.

GME has clearly crossed the tipping point into stalling and things are not looking good for the stock. This is why it is so important to wait for the breakout before committing. One, it requires the stock to demonstrate its strength before we put our money at risk. And two, it creates a clear stop loss level to protect our backside.

If GME cannot arrest this fall in a real big hurry, expect the selling to accelerate and for prices to tumble under $100 in the blink of an eye.

This remains a strong short until it gets above $200.

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Apr 08

A simple trading plan for the indexes

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Thursday within three points of 4,100. Not bad for an “overbought” market.

It took a couple of months to rally from 3,900 to 4k, but it only took a few days to make the next step to 4,100. But that’s the way this goes; lunge…rest…lunge again…rest again…

I don’t expect this latest breakout to go a whole lot further before falling into the next consolidation. We will hit 4,100 imminently, but it could be a while before we get to 4,200. As the saying goes, two steps forward, one step back.

That said, as long as stocks keep going up, there is only one way to trade this. Keep holding for higher prices and lifting our trailing stops to the lower 4k’s.

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Apr 07

Why I like boring markets and what’s up with $TSLA?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Wednesday was another quiet session for the S&P 500 following last week’s 4k breakout.

While most traders are addicted to drama, boring is vastly underrated. Emotional markets produce big moves, unfortunately, most of the time the big action occurs in the wrong direction. On the other hand, boring markets make far smaller moves, but most of them line up in the positive direction. And lucky for bulls, we are in the middle of a very boring market.

Headlines remain benign and stocks continue rallying on “less bad than feared”. Until something changes, stick with what has been working. Hold for higher prices and keep lifting our trailing stops.


The index finished with a small gain but someone forgot to tell TSLA. The electric car maker lost 3% in an otherwise decent day for leading growth stocks.

While we don’t want to overreact to a single day of underperformance, we need to see TSLA lead this market higher, not lag behind it.

Last week’s nice bounce off of $600 support was buyable, but if this underperformance continues, we need to pull the plug and lock-in profits while we still have them. (And if this retreats under $600, that becomes an attractive short entry.)

I’m not giving up on this stock just yet, but I have it on a short leash.

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Apr 06

Why the index keeps going higher and the next buy point for $GME

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Tuesday mostly flat (-0.1%) after spending all day bouncing between small gains and losses. But flat after adding nearly 120-points over the previous three sessions is actually quite constructive.

Everyone knows stocks cannot go up every day, so pinning our hopes on a fourth, fifth, or sixth strong day is unreasonable. But holding all of last week’s 4k breakout and most of yesterday’s strong follow-on gains tells us investors are not rejecting this latest push to all-time highs. Confident owners continue holding for higher prices and few are interested in taking profits at these record-high prices.

No matter what the cynics claim about complacency, as long as confident owners keep holding for higher prices, supply remains tight and it is easy for stocks to keep rallying. As the saying goes, what is high tends to get even higher.

This bull market will fall like all of the others that came before it, but this is not that time. Stick with what has been working and that is holding for higher prices and moving up our trailing stops.


GME is a buy above $200 but it is struggling to close the deal and it cannot get above this key resistance level. Fail to deliver on this obvious breakout and this starts looking more like stalling than resting and we need to be extremely careful.

This is a perfect example of why we must wait for confirmation before jumping in. Sometimes close isn’t good enough and this is one of those instances where it is safer to be a little late than a lot early.

Wait for the $200 breakout and we can buy the bounce for a quick trade, but only after this gets above $200.

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Apr 05

Why stocks don’t care about the risks and the best FAANG stocks to own

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 exploded higher Monday morning following last week’s breakout through the psychologically significant 4k level. But this isn’t a surprise, as I wrote last week:

Never bet against a market that keeps making new highs. Until we start getting a series of lower-highs and lower-lows, this bull market is alive and well and there is only one way to trade this.

Most of the things cautious investors worry about are still hanging over us (Covid, rising interest rates, elevated unemployment, sky-high stock valuations, etc), but the stock market is no longer bothered by these things. But this is normal as headlines eventually become priced in.

Nervous owners that fear these headlines sell to confident dip buyers who don’t mind the risks. After enough time passes, we exhaust the supply of fearful sellers and prices resume their climb. That’s exactly what happened here. The environment is not great, but we have definitely avoided the worst-case scenarios and less-bad is all we need to keep the rally going.

From a trading perspective, there is nothing to do other than stick with what has been working. I’m holding for higher prices and lifting my stops, now spread across the 3,900s.

We can argue with the market or we can profit from it. I choose profit every single time.

No doubt something will come along and rain on this parade (because it always does), but until we see a series of lower-highs and lower-lows, there is only one way to trade this.


The FAANG stocks finally turned it on are helping propel the indexes to these record highs. FB is back making record highs while GOOGL was already near all-time highs and keeps adding to them.

AMZN, AAPL, and NFLX are a little further back, but that is actually a good thing for us because that means these stocks have more profit potential during their recovery.

I really like FG and GOOGL, but right now, AMZN, AAPL, and NFLX are even more attractive.

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Apr 01

After 4k, is it finally time for a contrarian trade, and are the FAANG stocks back?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 surged to record highs and closed 20 points above the psychologically significant 4k level. It’s taken a few weeks, but we finally did it.

Wall Street brokers are already handing out the 4k hats. While that sounds like the perfect invitation to make a contrarian bet, only fools trade against something for no other reason than it looks “too high”. Before giving up on this bull market, we need a concrete and compelling reason to stop going along with this strength.

Without a doubt, this 4k breakout could be the beginning of the end, but the very first thing that needs to happen is for prices to stall and retreat. The very most important part of that sentence was “retreat”. Until stocks actually retreat from these levels, there is nothing to do but keep holding for higher prices.

A lot of people got out prematurely at 3,600, 3,700, 3,800, 3,900 and now 4k because stocks are “too high!” The thing these people forgot is “too high” often ends up going even higher.

Never bet against a market that keeps making new highs. Until we start getting a series of lower-highs and lower-lows, this bull market is alive and well and there is only one way to trade this.


The S&P 500 broke through 4k and the FAANG stocks came back to life! It’s hard to say who is leading who, but the most important thing is both are finally working together. As long as the FAANG stocks keep this newfound strength, expect the indexes to continue pushing higher.

Of the group, FB and GOOGL are clearly the best and either at highs or very close to them. That said, the FAANG laggards often catch up and that means we shouldn’t give up on AAPL, NFLX, and AMZN. In fact, there is more upside in betting on these catching up than chasing FB and GOOGL near the highs.

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Mar 31

Another good day for $SPX and a buy signal from $TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

After spending most of Wednesday at record levels, the S&P 500 pulled back modestly at the end of the day and just missed a record close by a measly 2 points. Close, but no cigar.

While it is never helpful to see a stumble into the close following a push to fresh highs, the market deserves a pass this time. Wednesday was the final day of the first quarter and some institutional investors move things around for housekeeping and reporting purposes. This window dressing isn’t significant and doesn’t mean anything. I won’t give this late fizzle a second thought as long as the selling doesn’t continue Thursday.

At this point, the market is in good shape and passing through 4k seems inevitable, if for no other reason than the market tends to go where everyone is looking.

It’s taken the market nearly two months to go from 3,900 to 4k. That’s a very reasonable amount of time and cooled off some of our previous “overbought” conditions. Sometimes markets rest by pulling back, other times they rest by trading sideways.

This sideways consolidation hasn’t been long enough to support a dramatic rally, but we are on pace for a continued grind higher. As long as we keep getting more up than down, everything is going according to plan.


TSLA has done a really nice job bouncing off of $600 support. As I wrote on Friday:

$600 is our line in the sand. Above support and TSLA is buyable. Under support and it becomes shortable. It doesn’t get any more straightforward than that.

If anyone was fortunate enough to be reading this blog back in February and locked in some nice profits near $800, this is a good place to be adding some of that money back. Place a stop under $600 and see where this bounce goes.

That said, be wary of any retreat back under $600, especially so quickly after bouncing off of support. If dip buyers don’t show up and this falls under $600 over the next few days or weeks, that shows demand is a problem and lower prices are ahead. And the scary thing is there is a lot of clear air between $600 and $400 support.

But that is simply a contingency. As long as TSLA remains above $600, all lights are green.

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Mar 30

Why the S&P 500 is headed higher and $GME is worth a second look

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

On Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped for the second day in a row following Friday’s record close. That said, these two losses only added up to 0.4% and the index remains within easy reach of the psychologically significant 4k milestone.

The 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to another post-covid high. But as alarmed as equity investors were when this yield rally took off earlier this year, this latest round of increases are largely being met with a yawn. But this isn’t a surprise. We’ve been living under the clouds of higher interest rates for a couple of months and if they were going to kill this bull market, it would have happened by now. Instead, most stock owners remain confident and are holding for higher prices.

A popular stock market truism warns us of complacency. While complacency often proceeds the fall, the thing most people forget to mention is just how long compliance lasts before the fall. Markets can stay complacent for many months, even years. That means anyone trading the early signs of compliancy is getting out long before they should. While these cynics will eventually be right, they will be wrong for a long, long time before that happens.

Weak markets don’t keep making record highs. That means this market is strong, not weak. Until we have compelling evidence to the contrary, continue giving this bull market the benefit of doubt. Hold for higher prices with stops spread around 3,900.


While the charade in GME will eventually come crashing back to earth, there are no limits to what fools and their money can accomplish when they pool their resources. While GME is headed back to $20 over the medium term, the near-term upside looks interesting. As obvious as the inevitable collapse is, we have to take note of just how stubbornly the stock is holding near $200.

One of the most powerful signals in the stock market is when something is not doing what everyone thinks it should be doing. In this case, the obviously overvalued GME should be tumbling back to $20. The fact we are still holding near $200 tells me there is still a lot of demand at this level and the stock wants to take another run higher.

This might be the last gasps of a dying stock, but if this gets above $200, it is buyable for a (very) quick trade. If you get a 20% or 50% pop, take your money and run because those profits will likely be gone hours later.

And once this near-term pop fizzles and retreats back under $200, this becomes a great short entry point.

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Mar 29

An imminent milestone for the S&P 500 and a warning for $ZM owners

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Monday started with a modest wave of selling as the S&P 500 digested weekend headlines of a major institutional investor blowing up and unfilled margin calls leaving several banks with massive write-downs.

Experienced traders are taking note because similar episodes triggered a cascade of falling dominos sent the indexes into a bear market. But so far, this story seems contained and hasn’t spread beyond a few directly affected stocks.

At least for the moment, the market is treating this as an isolated incident and Monday morning’s dip was shallow and fleeting.

The afternoon rebound reversed all of the early selling and left us a small fraction shy of all-time highs. As much as the cynics rant about complacency, vulnerable markets don’t keep making higher-highs. The thing the critics forget is just how long complacency lasts before the fall.

At this point, we are only a handful of points from the psychologically significant 4k level. It’s taken us a couple of months to go from 3,900 to challenging 4k, but it looks like the breakout is finally coming. After two months of resting and consolidating, the market is ready to go.


I’ve been ragging on ZM for months and unfortunately, the situation isn’t getting better. After a brief bounce above $400 support last month, the stock retreated back to recent lows and is poised to start making fresh lower-lows. This remains a short under $400 and for anyone still holding ZM, it is about to get worse.

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Mar 25

Is the $SPX dip already over and what should we do with $TSLA at $600?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Thursday gave us another rough start for the S&P 500 and the index easily undercut last week’s lows. But rather than trigger a follow-on wave of defensive selling, supply dried up and prices bounced back above 3,900 support before the close.

Sometimes things appear the most hopeless moments before turning around. Between violating 3,900 support in a poor finish Wednesday afternoon, gapping even lower Thursday morning, undercutting last week’s lows, and crashing through the 50dma, everything lined up for a free-fall. And that’s exactly when the market found a bottom and bounced.

We could dissect employment reports, Fed comments, and Congressional testimony, but in the end, the only thing that matters is how the market reacts and it actually took all of these developments in stride. Rather than devolve into a herd of panicked sellers, confident owners shrugged and kept holding.

Thursday’s dip and bounce wasn’t dramatic enough to qualify as real capitulation, but it was good enough to confirm most owners still don’t want to sell. As long as they continue holding for higher prices, dips will remain shallow and quick.


Following a similar theme, TSLA slumped back to $600 support before catching a bid and finishing the day closer to the mid-$600s.

So far so good. TSLA remains ownable above $600 support and we can keep holding. But if prices retreat and fall under $600 support, this turns into an attractive shorting opportunity.

With such a powerful momentum stock like TSLA, there is only hot or cold. Either we are riding a wave higher or we are getting out of the way. A violation of $600 support means there is more pain ahead and we should do our best to avoid getting pulled down in another wave lower.

It is okay for a person to be both bullish on the stock and also defensively locking in profits when prices retreat past our trailing stops.

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Mar 24

A strategy to protect $SPX profits and beating the $GME horse

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another rocky session for the S&P 500 and the index lost half a percent. That makes four down days out of the last five sessions.

Interest rate headlines continue dominating the financial press. That said, the reactionary selling has been relatively constrained and the index is only marginally below last week’s record highs.

The thing to remember about stock market crashes is they are breathtakingly quick. In comparison, we’ve been dealing with bond yield headlines all month, yet here we are within 2% of all-time highs. That hardly qualifies as panic selling.

But while the rally still appears to be in good shape, we always need to have our line in the sand. While this dip will most likely bounce like all of the other dips that came before it, there are no guarantees in the market.

The greatest advantage we have as independent traders is the nimbleness of our size. There is no reason to hold a position all the way down given how effortless it is for us to sell and buy back in.

While picking stops is never easy, spreading stops across a range helps minimize indecision and second-guessing. Pick a high point, a low point, and something in between. This way you are locking in some profits quickly and you are giving other positions a little extra room to avoid a routine shakeout.

If prices bounce quickly, only a small portion of your position was shaken out. If prices fall further, you got out at higher levels and can actually take advantage of buying the bigger discounts.

The most important thing is as soon as you get dumped out, start looking for the next buying opportunity to get back in. Many times the pullback proves to be a false alarm and the bounce can be within days if not hours.

While riding through whipsaws is annoying, I’d much rather deal with that minor inconvenience than suffer a large loss by stubbornly holding a larger dip that doesn’t bounce.


It was another brutal session for GME. The stock lost 1/3 of its value and odds are it will never get back above $200 ever again.

As much as the cheerleaders are willing this to go higher, it seems everyone who wants to pay $200 for a $20 stock has already bought it and there are no other fools left to keep pushing prices higher.

Volatility will remain off the chart for a while but expect every dip make a lower-low and every bounce to make a lower-high.

If a person didn’t sell this latest echo, they have no one to blame but themselves and their greedy impulses.

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Mar 23

Tales of a stubborn bull market and a warning for $GME owners

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 lost 0.8% Tuesday in the second-largest give-back over the last few weeks. Yet even when combined with last week’s -1.5% down day, the index remains within 1.6% of its all-time closing high. Hardly bearish material.

That said, you have to give the bears credit for their persistence. But so far they have been unable to crack this resilient bull market. No matter what is thrown at this rally, it just keeps shrugging off the bad news. While the cynics have been wrong 100 times up to this point, they insist this time they are finally right. Could they be right? Sure. But will they be right? No, probably not.

Successful trading is a game of probabilities and right now odds favor a continuation. This is a stubbornly resilient market and rather than fight the stubborn strength, we should be going along for the ride.

I’d love it if this market cracked wide open and panicked sellers started giving away stocks at huge discounts. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening. We need to get cautious if Tuesday’s dip continues under Friday’s intraday lows. But until then, stick with what has been working, which is holding for higher prices.


GME reported earnings after the close and they missed pretty big on both the top and bottom lines. That didn’t stop after-hours traders from bidding up the stock right after the earnings release. Unfortunately, that initial strength was short-lived and the stock ultimately closed down 15% by the end of the after-hours session.

I’ve been skeptical of the sustainability of this latest “echo” and it seems the bounce’s momentum is quickly petering out. As I’ve been telling Premium subscribers for over a week, once this thing falls under $200, it ain’t coming back. There are only so many fools willing to pay $200 for a $20 stock and it looks like we finally ran out of them.

This was a momentum trade and now that the momentum’s gone, there is no reason to own this. Hopefully, regretful buyers from the first runup were able to get their money back during this impressive echo. But if they didn’t, they have no one to blame but themselves.

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Mar 22

Why the $SPX’s bull market isn’t dead yet and a trading plan for $TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The week started well for the S&P 500 as it continued Friday’s bounce off of 3,900 support. Treasury yields moderated modestly and slipped under 1.7%. While not a big pullback, the decrease was enough to put stock traders in a dip-buying mood and the index is back within 1% of last week’s record close.

While the stock market is trading well and this resilience would be a big green light to start buying more under more conventional circumstances, I have a lot less confidence the worst is over in the bond market. In fact, I fully expect Treasuries to challenge 2% over the next few weeks.

Bond investors are human beings and prone to the same emotional mood swings as stock investors. That means these large moves tend to go way too far before eventually moderating. And in this instance, 2% seems to be the next target.

But as long as that move to 2% is relatively measured and turns into capitulation before retreating back to a more manageable 1.5%, this rise in yields shouldn’t threaten the bull market. Instead, this will simply be another bump on the stock market’s way higher.

That said, all bets are off if the bond selling intensifies and yields shoot past 2% and keep going. That’s the worst-case scenario. And as is usually the case with the worst-case scenario, the likelihood is of this outcome is slim. Most of the time reality turns out less-bad than feared. But that doesn’t mean equity investors won’t overreact to the risks over the near-term.

I really like the way the S&P 500 bounced off of 3,900 support and this move is buyable as long as the index remains above 3,900. Tumble under 3,900 on Tuesday and we need to pull the plug and reevaluate.


TSLA is struggling to add to March’s bounce off of $600 support and the rebound appears stalled under $700. The bounce is still holdable with a stop near $600, but if prices fall under $600, get out and even consider shorting the weakness. If $600 support doesn’t hold, the next obvious support level is $400. IMO, there is no reason to sit through a 33% pullback if we don’t have to. And if the stock bounces back above $600, it is easy enough to buy back in.

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Mar 11

Why bears got the interest rate trade wrong and what’s coming up for TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday was a good day for the S&P 500 with the index notching yet another record close. That’s miles from last week’s apprehension over the looming stock market collapse.

It’s been a few weeks since the last record high, but more important is this rebound extends the trend of higher-highs. As much as the cynics try to bash this market, fragile markets don’t keep making new highs. That confirms this a strong market, not a weak one.

The other nice thing to see Thursday was was a modest decoupling between bonds and stocks. Previously, stocks were rising and falling at the mercy of the bond market’s whims. Thursday, the bond market was mostly flat while stocks staged this nice rally to record highs.

But this shouldn’t be a surprise. As I wrote last week, stock investors are not afraid of these historically low 1.5% interest rates. They were worried this surge would continue to 3% and beyond. But so far, yields are settling in around a very reasonable 1.5% and that level seems good enough for the equity market.

Every pullback feels real. By rule, it has to. That’s because if it didn’t feel real, no one would sell and prices wouldn’t drop. Buying last week’s bounce was hard, but so far it looks to be the right call.

The thing to remember is risk is a function of height. The higher we are, the further we have to fall. And the opposite is true. The more the indexes pullback, the closer we are to the next bounce.

It is hard to buy when everyone else is predicting a collapse, but that is often the safest time to be buying. If a trader waited until today’s “conformation”, they would be getting in at record highs. The trader that took a chance on last week’s bounce already has a nice profit cushion protecting their trade.

Start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working. That’s how we keep ourselves out of trouble.


TSLA is riding on the coattails of the index’s rebound and has bounced hard off of Monday’s lows. Was this capitulation and enough to end the 40% collapse from the highs?

That’s a good question we cannot answer it right now. It’s been a long time since this stock followed anything remotely close to fundamental analysis. That means this is a momentum trade and either momentum is still behind this stock or it’s not. With a PE measured in the thousands, there is no option other than another race higher or a spectacular collapse.

TSLA’s bounce is buyable above $600. On the other hand, this turns into a strong short if this rebound fizzles and the stock retreats back under $600.

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Mar 10

Why the S&P 500 is headed higher and the latest warning for GME owners

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 finished Wednesday up as the relative calm in the bond market continues.

Bond investors are not fundamentally any different than stock investors. They are humans that feel the same tugs of greed and fear and are equally prone to overreacting to a selloff.

Chances are good a big portion of this latest runup in bond yields was triggered by a wave of contagious herd selling that got carried away. And that is the way equity investors are treating this as they buy last week’s dip.

The thing to remember in both stocks and bonds is most owners would rather keep holding than sell what they have. These episodes of runaway selling are triggered by fear. But after several days of calm, that fear dissipates and investors are able to make more rational trading decisions. And those rational decisions almost always include continuing to hold.

For the time being, the S&P 500 is acting well and there is only one way to trade this. Keep holding for higher prices with stops in the lower 3,800s. The advantage of buying the dip early is now we have a profit margin to protect us if the selloff resumes. Move your stops up to your entry points and see where this goes.


Silliness is returning to GME and the stock was up $100 Wednesday afternoon. That was until it fell $175 in a few short minutes. The size of the collapse was spectacular and shows just how thin the buying is in this stock. While most GME owners are “holding with diamond hands”, there are not many fools left willing to pay $300 for a $20 stock. All it takes is a few owners to start locking in their profits and this will get real ugly, real quick.

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Mar 09

Why Wednesday is so critical for this rebound

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 continues bouncing between big gains and losses depending on what is going on in the bond market that day. Treasury yields fell Tuesday and that sent stocks sharply higher as equity investors let out a sigh of relief.

The S&P 500 is trading really well and extending last week’s decisive capitulation and rebound. I love the way stocks are behaving but I have far less conviction about what is going in the bond market. That makes it hard to have a lot of confidence in the sustainability of this equity bounce because it is built entirely on the bond market keeping its cool.

But as I often write, the best trades always have uncertain starts. By the time we get more clarity, the discounts will have long since disappeared. And that means we have to get in before it feels safe.

I’m not convinced this is the last we’ve heard from the bond market. In fact, I believe higher rates will be responsible for the next recession and bear market. But this is a 6-12 months story, not a right now story. At least for the time being, equity investors are feeling better and there is a good chance this week’s bounce will stick.

Without a doubt I could be wrong, but for that to happen, we need to make a lower-low. Last week’s dip set a fresh low mark around 3,750 and as long as we remain above this level, everything is progressing well enough. While I’d love to see a new higher-high, at this point, avoiding another down wave is far more important.

That makes Wednesday a critical day for the market. Extend the rebound and all is good. Violate 3,800 support and lower-lows are in our immediate future.

The best part of being aggressive and buying the bounce early is that gives us a nice margin to play with. We should have already moved our stops up to our entry points. Few things are better than free trades and even if buying this bounce turns out to be a mistake, it won’t cost us much, if anything at all.

That said, I’m still expecting higher. Hold it together Wednesday and everything is setting up for a move to fresh highs.

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