Category Archives for "End of Day Analysis"

Apr 28

Did this rebound finally crack?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

The S&P 500 gapped 1.5% higher at the open, reaching the highest levels since early March. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and prices skidded back to breakeven in the first two hours of trade. And just as concerning, prices eventually finished near day’s lows.

While the market only gave up a seemingly trivial 0.5% and it remains just under recent highs, it is never good to see the market retreat from a push to new highs. Rather than embrace this strength, traders were more inclined to take profits. That’s the first real sign we’ve seen this rally could finally be running out of enthusiastic buyers willing to keep chasing prices even higher.

Anything can happen on any given day and we shouldn’t read too much into a single day’s price action. But this fizzle is definitely enough to give us pause. And the significance increases exponentially with each additional piece of concerning information we get over the next few days. Maybe the market shrugs this off tomorrow and prices continue rallying. But if we see further weakness develop over the next day or two, this could finally be the start of the long-awaited pullback.

Now I want to be clear, I’m most definitely not calling for a big crash. This market is trading really well and at this point we have no reason to doubt the sustainability of this larger rebound. But at the same time, everyone knows even strong markets move in waves and it is only time before this one experiences a perfectly normal and healthy pullback to support. Maybe this is finally that time. Or maybe this turns into something bigger. Lucky for us, both trades start the same.

If we see more intraday rallies fall victim to waves of profit-taking over the next few days, that is the first signs demand is falling off. If prices bounce and close strong, all is forgiven and forgotten. But if prices keep closing weak, that tells us the pullback is finally upon us. Another midday fizzle gives us a short entry and if prices close near the daily lows, it is worth holding a small short position overnight. But as I said earlier, close strong close and all short trades are off. If this turns out to be another false alarm, no big deal. We cover and try again next time.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 23

The best way to approach this trading range

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

The S&P 500 continues consolidating inside the 2,700 and 2,900 range. We’ve been stuck in this region for two weeks following the mammoth rebound from the March lows. Thus far, the market refused multiple opportunities to breakout/breakdown and no matter what the bulls and bears claim, it continues chugging sideways.

It’s been a fantastic run and obviously the market deserves a break following a historic 20% surge. There are two ways markets rest and reset. The first is a more conventional pullback to support. The proverbial, two steps forward, one step back. That’s what a lot of people, myself included, were expecting. But as resilient as this market’s been over these two weeks, most longer-viewed owners are refusing to sell their favorite stocks at a discount. When owners refuse to sell, it makes no difference what the headlines say or what the experts think prices should do.

That said, supply is only half of the pricing equation. While owners are supporting prices by refusing to sell, our upside momentum has been blunted by prospective buyers refusing to pay ever-increasing prices. Owners not selling and those with cash not buying is the recipe for a sideways grind.

Which side caves first? That’s a good question and unfortunately, I don’t have the answer. Bulls have a good case that many states are already starting to reopen their economies. On the other side, bears point to the sharpest economic contraction in modern history and a stock market that’s only down 15%. There’s something definitely wrong with that calculus. Either stocks are way too high or the economy will bounce back a lot quicker than the headlines portend.

Luckily for us, we don’t need to place our bets just yet. As independent investors, our greatest strength is the nimbleness of our size. Rather than commit to one side or the other, we should wait for the bandwagon to start rolling before we jump aboard. Only the partisans need to be right. The rest of us are satisfied collecting a few bucks jumping aboard this no matter which way it goes.

Until proven otherwise, assume any dip to 2,700 will bounce and rally to 2,900 will stall. Buy the bounce off the lower end and take profits at the upper edge. If the market breaks above the highs or breaks under the lows, close those positions and flip the other direction. By staying nimble, we can profit no matter what the market does next.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 21

Is it finally time to short this market? (and how to do it safely)

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

The S&P 500 shed 3% Tuesday, adding to Monday’s nearly 2% decline. As well as the market has been trading lately, these two sessions closed nearly the daily lows and their price action stands out like a sore thumb.

Stocks have been defying gravity every since they launched off of the March lows. This has been one of the biggest and fastest rebounds in history and most seasoned observers were skeptical this strength could last given the frighteningly dreadful economic headlines surrounding us. But the same thing could have been said last week and the week before that. And unfortunately, a lot of anxious bears got themselves run over shorting this meat-grinder rebound a little too early.

As I often say, knowing what the market will do is easy, the hard part is getting the timing right and that’s where all the money is made. Without a doubt, this market was going to pull back, the hard part is knowing when. Are we finally at that point? Great question but if we are approaching this the right way, it shouldn’t matter.

Far and away the greatest strength we have as independent traders is the nimbleness of our size. We can go from full long to full short with just a few mouse clicks. We don’t have big money’s army of analysts, supercomputers, or inside connections, but those things are not necessary if we know how to exploit our size. We don’t need to know what the market will do ahead of time because we are fast enough to react to events as they happen. Rather than short the pullback before it rolls over, we can (and should) wait for it to happen before we jump aboard that move lower.

The keys are knowing what signals to look for and then being able to recognize quickly when we get it wrong. Get in, get out, and try again. That’s the formula for our success as independent traders. With that approach, we don’t need to predict the future. We simply react to it as it happens in realtime.

Yesterday’s weak close, this morning’s early dip and finishing again near the daily lows gave us the first interesting overnight shorting opportunity in a while. For several weeks I’ve been day-trading this market because opening gaps have been large and unpredictable. But this is the first time in a while I felt like there was something worth holding.

That said, this trade needs to be done carefully. Shorting today’s weak open gave us a profit cushion going into the close. And more than that, locking-in a portion of profits this afternoon both guaranteed some profits and reduced our exposure by leaving us with a smaller position.

If the short trade doesn’t work tomorrow, it won’t hurt much between the reduced position size, existing profit cushion, and the portion of profits already locked-in. If that’s the case, we get out and try again next time. But if it works, add more at the open and see where it goes. Close weak for the third day and we follow the same formula tomorrow afternoon.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 20

How to trade a market that lost its mind

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

As unprecedented and historic as this global shutdown has been, it keeps throwing curveballs at us that only a few weeks ago seemed too absurd to even be worth hypothesizing over.

The lastest unprecedented development was the most spectacular collapse in the history of commodity trading. $22 oil was shocking enough. Then we got barrels trading at $8 on the spot market a few days ago. But that was only warming us up for the main event.

People’s jaws were on the floor this afternoon when oil contracts for May delivery fell under one dollar. Fifty cents for 55 gallons of oil? Surely it couldn’t get any worse than that. And moments later, it did exactly that.

Traders were so desperate to avoid taking delivery of physical oil they became willing to pay people to take their oil. That’s just how bad the current situation is. And not just a dollar or two. The day closed with oil trading at minus $37 dollars! That’s right, traders were so desperate to get out of their positions they would pay you $37 for every barrel of oil you take off their hands!

How did one of the most important commodities in the world go from a coveted resource to something akin to raw sewage that requires payment to be disposed of?

But just as shocking as the collapse of May’s oil contract was the stock market’s indifference to it. The neighbor’s house was burning to the ground and the S&P 500 was too busy organizing its sock drawer to even look out the window.

Two months ago, if you told me oil would fall $55 dollars in a single day, I would have expected all financial instruments to be imploding. But not today. Today, it was just another headline the S&P 500 is ignoring.

At this point, we have three options. Argue with the stock market, fall in line, or get out of the way. No one wins an argument with the market, so please don’t do that. For our longer-term investments, buying at these levels still represents a decent discount if we plan on holding for a couple of years. For anything else, get out of the way!

There is a saying in the market, missing the bus is better than getting hit by the bus. If we don’t feel comfortable buying this strength for a long-term investment, there is nothing wrong with sitting this one out and waiting for a better opportunity. Remember, often the best trade is to not trade. Until the risk/reward lines up in our favor, wait patiently on the sidelines. That means waiting until this rebound is breaking down before shorting it. Or for the less aggressive, buying the next dip. But whatever you do, don’t allow yourself to argue with this strength.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 16

What’s going on with TSLA and AMZN?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

After weeks of dramatic moves, the S&P 500 finally seems to be getting comfortable at current levels. While we are still experiencing elevated volatility with 1% and 2% daily moves, they have largely been offsetting each other from day-to-day around 2,800.

While the market has been finding its footing, there are a few stocks that have definitely been taking advantage of this calm to reassert their dominance. NFLX and AMZN are inherently well-positioned to do well during these lockdown times because they cater to customers at home.

As expected, these two companies navigated last month’s stock crash relatively well, losing less than the indexes. No surprise there. But then something curious happened Monday. Investors started piling into these stocks with reckless abandon. There wasn’t a definitive headline driving this strength. Instead, retail investors were hungry for something to throw their money at and these two stocks happened to be the beneficiary.

Fundamentally, nothing changed between last week and this week for NLFX and AMZN. Neither one found the cure to the Coronavirus or unlocked the secretes to sustained fusion. These were some of the best run and best-positioned companies last week when no one was paying much attention to them and they are the exact same well-run companies this week. The only thing that changed is they are now popping up every Tom, Dick, and Harry’s stock screen. Nothing attracts a crowd like a crowd and these two mega-caps are the hottest thing going right now.

Of course, this should look familiar to anyone who’s been following the market over the last few months. In late January, we saw the same thing happen with TSLA. A company that was doing well and going about its business when all of a sudden it became the hottest trade in the market, for seemingly no explicable reason. There wasn’t a headline breakthrough. TSLA reported earnings a couple of weeks before and showed a small profit but not much happened after earnings. And then all of a sudden, one day out of nowhere, the stock started racing higher, much like NFLX and AMZN are doing today.

Like TSLA before it, NFLX and AMZN are nothing more than momentum trades. People want to get in because they’re afraid of being left out. They’re not buying AMZN and NFLX because they love the companies. They’re buying them because everyone else is buying them. And unfortunately, these things rarely end well. I warned people to lock-in TSLA profits when the stock slipped under $800 and I definitely hope a lot of readers heeded that advice. As similar as NFLX and TSLA’s stock charts look here, only a fool would expect this to end any differently.

Unsustainable moves are unsustainable. They’re great while they last, but always recognize it for what it is. Stick with what is working and ride this higher, but never let it go to your head. Make sure you stay disciplined and use a trailing stop to protect your profits. No doubt this will pop like all of the other unsustainable surges higher that came before it. Some people will make money and other people will lose money. Make sure you are one of the people who end up on the right side of this trade.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM $AAPL $AMZN

Apr 15

Is this market too hot, too cold, or just right?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

The S&P 500 gapped lower at the open, making this the fourth consecutive day of large opening moves in opposite directions. One day the bulls are in charge, the next day belongs to the bears. As much passion as there is in the market, both sides have been equally wrong about this one.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve been discussing strategies to trade this rebound. Today I’m shifting gears and will get into why the market is doing what it is doing.

While it isn’t hard to point out a few historical examples of the market getting things wrong, the thing we need to remember is the market is right far more often than it is wrong. These cherry-picked instances ignore all of the other times the market got things right. This also means when the market is not doing what we think it should be doing, the very first thing we should question is ourselves. And even more important than who’s right or wrong, the market determines our profits and losses and by that measure, it is always right. Rather than fall into the argument of why the stock market should be dramatically higher or lower than it is right now, let’s figure out why it is where it is.

Tumbling 20% from the highs of only a few weeks ago is a dramatic move. But these are dramatic time and this kind of reaction is logical and expected. The world looks nothing like it did at the start of the year and that means the stock market should obviously reflect this new reality. Where we run into disagreements is if -20% is too hot, too cold, or just right.

At this point, most investors are encouraged by the moderating infection rates and they are hopeful people can start going back to work in a few weeks. This will require obvious adjustments to our old routines to include social-distancing and protective measures, but it will be a good start that gets most people back to doing what they need to be doing. There will be some outliers like concert venues and movie theaters that will continue suffering from bans on large groups, but the rest of the economy should start thawing soon. Or at least that is the market’s current expectation.

While the upcoming earnings reports will be some of the worst in history, the thing to remember is the market doesn’t care as much about what happened last month or what will happen next month, it is looking six months ahead and wants to know where we will be this fall. As bad as things look now, if the market expects economic activity to be picking back up this fall, that is how it will price stocks today. Everyone knows our economic numbers will be shockingly bad. But that also means we can assume this is already priced in. Just like the market, our attention needs to be focused on is where the economy will be six months from now.

As for this -20%, the bears think we haven’t fallen far enough and bulls believe prices are already too low. Split the difference between these two extremes and we end up right where we should be. That said, it is impossible for the market to stay at one level so we should expect these volatile gyrations to continue for the foreseeable future. But no matter how high or low we go, unless something dramatic happens (i.e. a vaccine is released or a flare-up races out of control), expect these big swings to cancel each other out and for the prices to move mostly sideways around these more moderate levels. That means buying the bigger dips and selling the bigger rebounds for the next six months.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 13

Don’t count this rebound out just yet

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 stumbled at the open following the long holiday weekend. Coronavirus headlines were actually fairly encouraging with infection rates moderating in a lot of areas. Unfortunately, much that optimism was already priced in during last week’s 12% surge. Now that we are at the upper end of the recent range, the market requires even better news to keep pushing higher and today’s headlines didn’t cut it.

That said, after the morning’s selling ran its course, the market held up surprisingly well. I’ve been one of the countless cynics that are suspicious of this market’s nearly 30% rebound from last month’s lows. But despite the widespread criticism, this market keeps hanging in there. And today’s price action was no different. Rather than devolve into a mass of panicked sellers, supply dried up in late-morning trade and we spent the rest of the day climbing out of that hole. While prices still finished in the red, I actually count this as a win for the bulls. When owners were given the invitation to sell, they shrugged and bought the dip instead. How much longer this lasts is anyone’s guess, but for the time being, the market is still acting well and it still demands our respect.

While odds are high the market will stumble and test support at some point, it doesn’t seem like we are at that point yet. Maybe it finally happens tomorrow, the day after, or even next week. But either way, we need to be careful shorting a resilient market. Lately, I’ve been day-trading this market because I’d rather not be caught on the wrong side of a 3%, 4% or even 5% opening gap. There is still plenty of money to be made trading during regular hours and most importantly, this allows us to exercise prudent risk management by preventing prices from leaping over our stop-losses in the middle of the night. While I might miss some profits when the market gaps in my direction, inevitably, I am also missing those days when it would have run over me instead.

I don’t need to make all of the money, just the easier, lower risk stuff. I’ll leave everything else to the gamblers. If you want to read how I’m trading this market, check out last week’s free posts.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 08

How to make money when you’re wrong

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

In Tuesday’s free after-hours post, I explained why I felt the market’s recent runup left us vulnerable to a near-term pullback. Those suspicions seemed confirmed by yesterday’s intraday selloff that erased all of the impressive opening gains. While I liked what I saw and in a normal market I would have held that short for multiple days, unfortunately, these are most definitely not normal times.

It has been my policy for a few weeks now to not hold positions overnight. These 2%, 3%, and even 5% opening gaps leap over any sensible stops we use to protect ourselves. Sometimes the gaps are higher, other times they are lower, and so far I haven’t figured out a reliable way of anticipating how the market is going to react to the overnight headlines. Rather than risk losing my profits the next morning, I take those profits in the afternoon and look for a new trade the next morning. While I normally don’t like day-trading, we trade the market we are given and this is the one we get.

But as unreliable as the open gaps have been, the market’s first move has been quite reliable and often signals a much larger intraday move. Most of the time that means buying the early move, hanging on, and taking profits in the afternoon.

While it’s been a good strategy, it doesn’t always work and that’s why we need a nearby stop to minimize the cost of any mistakes. And more than just that, the other thing I noticed lately is when I’m wrong, I tend to be really wrong. Rather than simply pull the plug and try again the next day, I pull the plug and switch directions. As much as it feels wrong to go against my gut, it gets a lot easier to tolerate when we see the profits pile up.

And that’s exactly what happened today. I started the day flat and the initial dip from the open got me in on the short side. This is the swoon I was looking for and everything was going according to plan. But by midmorning, the early slide bounced and overtook the opening levels. Rather than argue with the market or convince myself to give the trade a little more time to work, I pulled the plug. And more than just pull the plug, as I said, when I’m wrong, I tend to be really wrong, so I switched directions, went long, and held on.

While no one is getting rich from a 1% or 2% intraday move, do it enough times and the profits start to add up.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 07

What to expect from the market’s next move lower

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Update

The S&P 500 3% popped at the open as global Coronavirus infection rates showed their first hints of moderating. This was welcome news for fatigued markets and the relief extended the market’s rebound more than 500-points above our lowest point.

As I often write, the market loves symmetry. It was almost inevitable that a historic crash would be followed by an equally historic rebound. As incredulous as people were two weeks ago when the market rebounded 20% and headlines proclaimed the bear market was over, here we are, still standing. As bad as things seem in their darkest hours, we always manage to push through them and this episode will be no different.

That said, there is a huge difference between starting to heal and being recovered. This market is still incredibly volatile and that means big moves in both directions. While the free-fall might be behind us, that doesn’t mean we should expect clear sailing back to the highs. There are definitely promising signs in the battle against the Coronavirus, but the economic cost of this progress is staggering and cannot be ignored. Following this brief relief rally, expect our economic reality to start weighing on stock prices again. We saw the first signs of this second-guessing show up this afternoon as stocks retreated from their early highs.

Markets move in waves and this latest rebound will invariably end in the next move lower. I don’t expect a major crash, but any retest of support feels scary. It has to. If it didn’t feel real, people wouldn’t sell and we wouldn’t dip. But rather than tumble out of control, realize this next move lower is simply an exhale, not a crash.

As for how to trade this, anyone with short-term trading profits should have locked them in. As volatile as this market is, waiting a day too long is the difference between harvesting profits and accumulating tax write-offs. While no one likes taxes, I definitely prefer paying taxes on profits than using losses as a tax deduction.

More important than how the market opens tomorrow is what its initial move is. Gap lower or higher doesn’t matter as much as that move in the first 30 minutes. Buy an early bounce with a stop just under the opening levels or short a dip with a stop just above the open. If we get stopped out, consider switching direction and going the other way. Collect profits before the close and limit overnight exposure. Repeat this process again on Thursday.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM

Apr 02

The only way to figure out where this market is headed next

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

In a bit of a mixed day, the S&P 500 recovered a big chunk of yesterday’s selloff. Initial unemployment claims surged past 6 million, easily shattering last week’s record and the economy continues screeching to a halt at an unprecedented rate. That said, the stock market is already coming to terms with this staggering uncertainty. As dramatic as the crash seems, we are only down about 25% from February’s highs. While it felt like we fell off a cliff, stocks are actually holding up fairly well all things considered.

As usual, there are two ways to interpret this. Bulls are impressed by the market’s reluctance to continue falling. If we already chased off most of the fearful sellers, supply will dry up and prices stabilize. Remember, headlines don’t move markets, only people actually buying and selling stocks do that. Quite simply, when owners stop selling the headlines, the headlines stop mattering. The bear’s counterpoint to this resilience is it is little more than a pause on our way lower and we are in the middle of a dead-cat bounce.

Who’s right? That’s a hard question and people are desperately searching for answers in many different places. Some are consulting charts, moving averages, and ratios. Others are looking to fundamental data. Some are even consulting the stars or reading tea leaves. At this point, one approach isn’t any better than the other. This scenario has never happened before and nothing based on historical data is of any use in figuring out what comes next.

The effectiveness of these social-distancing campaigns and lock-downs can’t be found in stock charts, ratios and moving averages that are based on past price data. The only thing that matters is if this epidemic continues spiraling out of control, or if the fever finally breaks and we start getting a handle on it. No moving average or ratio that can predict what happens next so quit looking for one. Trade this market by looking ahead, not behind. Watch what the market does next and then react to it. If prices keep falling, get out and go short. If they find support and bounce, buy it and hang on. Quit looking for the easy answer. There isn’t one. This is a very tradable market, we just need to cut out the noise and focus on what matters. Follow the market’s lead and the rest will take care of itself.

Over the next couple of weeks, expect prices to retest 2,300. While dipping back to those levels will feel scary, as long as they hold, this situation is getting better, not worse and we should be buying this dip, not selling it. But if prices slice through 2,300 and the selling accelerates, short the weakness and see where it goes. One of the greatest strengths we have as independent traders is our nimbleness. We don’t need to predict the future if we are nimble enough to follow the market’s lead.

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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM