The 5k Hangover

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks slipped half-a-percent Tuesday, but it was actually a productive day. There was no headline driver for the opening weakness and it appeared like selling for selling’s sake. Monday’s “NASDAQ 5,000” headlines probably spooked a certain contingent and they placed overnight orders to sell the “obvious top”. The cascade of selling continued into mid-day where the market undercut 2,100 support. But just as things appeared to be spiraling out of control, supply dried up and we recovered half of the earlier losses.

While this would be more fun if every day ended in the green, I was actually impressed with the market’s resilience. If we were at overbought levels, today’s technical weakness would have been more than enough to trigger a wider wave of selling. When the market is poised to move one direction, all it takes is the smallest of excuses to get things rolling. If the market wanted to go lower, this was the perfect invitation. But we bounced instead. This tells me we are not excessively overbought and on the verge of collapsing.

While we struggle to find buyers above 2,120, we also cannot shake free sellers under 2,100. One of these day’s we will move out of this tight trading range. The market’s non-reaction to recent bearish geopolitical headlines and looming rate hikes tells us owners are confident and reluctant to sell. Right or wrong, it doesn’t matter. When no one sells, supply remains tight, and prices inch higher.

But all of this is null and void if we cannot climb out of this range. The longer we hold near 2,100, the more likely it is we will come across a dip that doesn’t bounce. I need to see today’s supportive trade continue. Another test of support probably won’t end as well for bulls.

Jani