Menu
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
Wednesday was a shockingly bad day for American democracy. But as dramatic as the pictures were from inside the Capitol, the stock market barely flinched.
As I wrote Tuesday:
The index opened just above 3,700 support and that was all the confirmation investors needed that Monday’s selloff was truly dead. A couple of hours later, frenzied buying pushed prices 80-points higher and the S&P 500 was carving out yet another intraday record high.
Unfortunately, the afternoon unrest at the Capitol dampened the market’s mood slightly before the close. But finishing up 0.5% on a day when the U.S. Capitol is ransacked by an angry mob shows just what a bizarre period in history this is.
As I often say, if the market doesn’t care about these things, then as investors, we shouldn’t care about them either. While it seems like the world is crumbling around us, as long as stock keep going up, there is only one way to trade this. A market that refuses to go down on bad news is one that clearly wants to go higher. Stocks took a breather in December and now they are rested and ready to start charging higher in January. There is only one way to trade this stubborn strength.
If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!
Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 kicked off 2021 with the biggest one-day loss since late October. Fortunately, Monday’s selling proved fleeting and the index rebounded smartly Tuesday, reclaiming half of Monday’s losses.
What counts more, Monday’s losses or Tuesday’s bounce? Good question.
The thing to keep in mind is one day of selling doesn’t kill a bull and a one-day bounce doesn’t end a dip. Quite simply, the information we need is coming Wednesday.
Tuesday’s bounce was definitely helpful for bulls. The biggest stock market crashes are multi-day affairs with no break in between. Tuesday’s bounce prevented this from turning into a runaway selloff. This is important because it gives stock owners a moment to collect their composure. And most of the time when you give stock owners the chance, they will choose to keep holding their stocks, ending the flow of supply.
As long as the index remains above Monday’s lows, expect stock owners to maintain their cool and keep holding for higher prices. Dip under 3,660 so soon after bouncing off of this level tells us Tuesday was a false bottom and lower prices are ahead.
It doesn’t get any more straightforward than this. Stocks are buyable above 3,660 and sellable/shortable if the index falls under this level. Plan your next trade accordingly.
If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!
Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The first trading session of 2021 got the new year off to a rocky start. The S&P 500 shed 1.5% in the biggest daily decline since late October.
Election uncertainty is flaring up. A super version of Covid-19 is spreading across the U.S. England is going back into lockdown. And the vaccine rollout is progressing far slower than planned. In all, it was a dreadful weekend for headlines.
But none of this should surprise anyone. The news has been dreadful for ten months and this latest spurt is nothing new. Stocks didn’t rally to where they are because our environment has been good. They got here because the future is a lot brighter than the present.
It’s common knowledge stocks are priced for what investors expect in six to twelve months. And so the question we have to ask ourselves is if anything that happened this weekend changes this six to twelve month outlook?
By this summer, the election will have long since been settled. Even with this slow vaccine rollout, most people who want a vaccine will have been given one by this fall. Or at the very least, the vulnerable populations and essential workers will be inoculated, allowing the rest of us to resume our normal activities without putting other people at risk.
If anything, this latest headline brouhaha increases the urgency for another round of stimulus. And if there is anything we learned from 2020, at least as far as the stock market goes, stimulus trumps everything else.
Monday’s selling could continue into Tuesday and even Wednesday. But this is nothing more than a minor wobble on our way higher. Two-steps forward, one-step back. Nothing meaningful changed this weekend and the prior uptrend remains intact. Any near-term weakness is giving us a buying opportunity, not an excuse to abandon ship.
As always, respect your stops. But if you get stopped out, be ready to jump back in as soon as this proves to be a false alarm. This latest dip will rattle nerves but it will also bounce far quicker than anyone expects.
If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!
Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
You must be logged in to post a comment.