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Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and financial analyst that has successfully traded stocks and options for nearly three decades. He has an undergraduate engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines and two graduate business degrees from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes engineering at Fortune 500 companies, small business consulting, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two children.
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 slumped 2.5% in the biggest one-day loss since the election. While everyone is waiting for the inevitable demise of these frenzied bubble stocks, they were some of Wednesday’s few winners with GME popping 135% and AMC adding a staggering 300%.
While experienced investors are growing concerned about bubble mania, clearly the fringe speculators driving these frothy stocks higher are not heeding the clear and obvious warnings.
As I wrote yesterday, bubbles take far longer to inflate and pop than most people realize. As crazy as things appear right now, most likely we still have a ways to go before this bull market is taken down by valuation worries. But just because higher prices are ahead for the indexes doesn’t’ mean we cannot take a few step backs along the way.
While I still believe higher index prices are ahead, that doesn’t mean I’m holding “no matter what”. As I wrote previously, I’ve been following this rally higher with stops in the mid to upper 3,700s and those stops got hit today. Regardless of what I believe, that’s my signal to get out and reevaluate. As easy as it is to buy back in, there is no reason to stubbornly hold a falling market.
Most likely this is just another false alarm on our way higher, but I’m not willing to bet my money on it. If prices bounce tomorrow, I’ll get back in. If they keep falling, even better, that means I’m entering at even lower prices.
I still like this market but that doesn’t mean I’m blindly following it. These are the times we follow our thoughtful trading plan, not shoot from the hip while overcome with anxiety and second-thoughts.
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 continues hovering near all-time highs. As I often say, something that refuses to go down will eventually go up. And that’s definitely the case here.
With the election behind us, Covid vaccinations finally starting to roll, and infection rates coming down from the post-holiday peak, investors need something new to worry about. And right now bubble talk is taking over the financial headlines with outrageous moves in names like GME, BB, TSLA, and Bitcoin.
I’m equally concerned by these obviously unsustainable moves and am certain they will end in tears for most of the retail investors piling into these trades. But I also know it takes a long, long time for bubbles to burst. The dot-com bubble started in 1995 with Netscape’s IPO and it didn’t burst until 2000. That was five years worth of inflating.
Without a doubt, we are already multiple years into this inflation and the burst is a lot closer than five years. But it is still more than six months out and it might not even happen until next year or the year after. Do we really want to pull the plug on a great rally two years early because a handful of stocks are obviously overvalued?
I don’t condone the buying frenzy going on in parts of the market and it will end poorly for those gullible chasers. But for the time being, there is nothing for index traders to do except keep following this bull market higher. When the time comes, there will be plenty of concrete signals in the indexes’ price action. Until then, stick with what is working.
If there is one thing we know for certain about bursting bubbles, they don’t make new highs.
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
I don’t cover penny stocks because a lot of unsavory things go down in that shady portion of the market and it isn’t suitable for most investors. That said, I never expected to see penny-stock style manipulation occur in a well-known, billion-dollar company.
No doubt almost everyone is aware of the sheer craziness going on in GME. The stock rallied nearly 1,000% since January 1st, with the biggest portion of that move taking place this morning. But not to be outdone, this morning’s 150% gain was quickly erased by a 50% plunge from the highs a few hours later. Easy come easy go.
While it is tempting to jump aboard this seemingly easy trade, these things are best watched from the sidelines. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money trading this and you don’t want to be one of them.
That said, I’m not really interested in analyzing the crazy hive-mind driving GME’s wild swings. But I am interested in what something like this tells us about the state of the broad market.
Having been around for the wild dot-com days, there are some noteworthy parallels. While most of the market isn’t outrageously overvalued, there are several companies that have been driven to undeservedly high levels. GME is only the tip of the iceberg. TSLA being the fifth most valuable company despite the fact it hasn’t figured out how to turn a profit selling cars is a concern. (TSLA’s profits come from selling tax credits, not cars.)
By all accounts, the Robinhood crowd has lost its mind. And while it seems like a big pullback in the share price of GME, TSLA, and bitcoin shouldn’t affect the wider market. This fails to take into account stock valuations are a game of confidence. If one segment pops, that stink spreads to everything around it. Given how far we came since the March lows, there is a tremendous amount of air underneath us if sentiment flips from a half-full to a half-empty.
That said, even with all of the warning sirens going off, these things usually go even further before they pop. We might be in the later innings of this game, but we are not at the end and it is most definitely not time to abandon ship simply because a few stocks have gone “too far”.
The greatest strength we have as independent investors and traders is the nimbleness of our size. We can flip from full-long to full-short with a few clicks of the mouse. We don’t need to predict the market when we can react to it in real-time.
Stick with what is working as long as it keeps working. But be ready to get out once the cracks start showing because when this goes, it could get really ugly.
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By Jani Ziedins | Weekly Analysis
Free Weekly Analysis:
This was another record-breaking week for the S&P 500. The index rallied 1.9% and all-time highs continue getting even higher.
Biden assumed the presidency on Wednesday with far less drama and rancor than we’ve seen in recent weeks, which was a welcome sight. That said, investors were not really concerned and the market rallied modestly on the news of a peaceful transition. But this makes sense. Stocks were not selling at a discount because of this political uncertainty and that meant there wasn’t much room to bounce when reality turned out less-bad than feared.
If we step back and look at the big picture, this was one of the most contentious elections in recent memory and Covid infection and fatality rates are off the charts. How does the stock market react to all of this bad news? By carving out fresh highs.
If this bull market really was as overbought and fragile as the cynics claim, there have been more than enough bearish headlines to send this crashing. Yet here we stand.
As ugly as the headlines have been, these things are old news and already priced in. Investors are always looking six months ahead and no matter how bad things look today, between a highly effective vaccine, warmer summer months, and an endless supply of free money, investors are actually in a pretty good mood.
While it feels like this market has gone too far, it always feels that way at the highs.
Stick with what has been working and that is holding for higher prices. Keep our stops in the mid to upper 3,700s and see how far this goes.
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
Exactly one week ago, I wrote a bullish post about FB as the stock fell off a cliff:
This latest leg lower kicked off after [FB] announced it was suspending Trump’s accounts for violating their terms of service. No doubt investors are expecting backlash from Trump supporters and there will be an incremental hit to their revenues.
But as far as boycotts go, this one will be mild. Very few corporate advertisers are interested joining this boycott because they don’t want to get dragged into the dumpster fire taking place in Washington D.C. That means FB’s advertising rates won’t take a meaningful hit.
As far as users go, FB’s target audience is suburban soccer moms that share cupcake recipes. They are highly unlikely to abandon FB and head over to these unmoderated free speech alternatives.
Seven days later and the stock is up nearly 10%. Not bad for a few days of work.
Now don’t get me wrong, publishing that post on the exact day this stock bottomed was pure luck. But recognizing the buying opportunity was most definitely not luck.
Trading successfully comes from recognizing opportunities when the odds are stacked in our favor. One of the most profitable trades is when the herd starts rushing out of a perfectly good company for an immaterial reason. And even when the reasons are legitimate, most of the time the stock market takes the selling too far and even defective stocks are primed for a snapback.
Headlines affecting FB over the last several weeks and months will do little to damage one of this country’s most profitable companies. I would view any further weakness in FB as a buying opportunity. Unfortunately, I don’t think we will get that lucky because this stock is giving off vibes it is ready to head back to the highs.
A big shoutout to everyone liking and sharing these posts!!!
That positive feedback motivates me to keep writing these free posts!
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 popped to record highs on the first day of the Biden presidency. While there were some shocking and unprecedented events along the way, most people believed there would be a peaceful transition of power and that included most investors. Despite the political rancor and discord of the last several weeks, the stock market barely budged from record levels.
The broad market has been notching numerous new highs over the last few weeks, but notably absent was strength in the high-flying FAANG stocks. These best-of-the-best companies have been struggling to pull themselves off of recent lows and were stuck in consolidation patterns.
Some of this underperformance makes sense since Democrats have been vocally targeting these titans of tech for their anti-competitive business practices. Add in last week’s moves to censor Trump and popular right-wing social media platforms and the storm clouds were swirling around these former market darlings.
But as the popular saying goes, it is darkest right before the dawn. Tuesday night NFLX smashed earnings expectations and the stock surged 17% to record levels. GOOGL also popped to record highs. And FB, AMZN, and AAPL all had good days too.
The biggest red flag of the S&P 500’s recent strength was the lack of participation by this country’s best companies. But as the saying goes, better late than never. The FAANG stocks are getting their mojo back and expect them to not only catch up to the indexes, but actually start leading the charge higher.
There is no reason to fight what is working. Continue holding for higher prices and keep moving our trailing stops up.
If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!
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What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
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