All Posts by Jani Ziedins

Is the Worst Already Behind Us?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks bounced modestly following Friday’s bloodletting. We ended higher by 0.4% on less than average volume. The big headlines came from Apple’s product launch and the broad market followed AAPL’s lead higher, but it also peaked when investors were underwhelmed by the final version of the Apple Watch.

Today’s low-volume bounce was largely a placeholder for what comes next. We need to go back to last Friday’s price-action to get a feel for where the market stands. As we discussed last Thursday, the market needed a capitulation bottom before it could continue higher. Was Friday that day? We clearly smashed through 2,090 support in a very painful intraday selloff. It was also the first day in nearly a month with above average trading volume. While both of those traits are what we were looking for, was it enough?

Selloffs are rarely one day events and while the volume was elevated, it was well short of those that formed February’s capitulation bottom. Both of these factors suggest Monday’s bounce is not the all-clear bulls are hoping for. While sentiment came in quite a bit, one last plunge under the 50dma would do a far better job resetting sentiment and clearing the way for a move higher.

For this to be a “V” bottom, we need to rebound quickly and Tuesday is that day. If we don’t recover 2,090 tomorrow, expect this to correction to drag on a bit longer, either falling further, or at best trading sideways. There is no need to rush in and buy the dip. Let others gamble away their money trying to pick a bottom.

Jani

Waiting for Capitulation

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks finished modestly higher, hugging 2,100 support for most of the day. The low-volume gain was good enough to snap a two-day selloff as traders sat on their hands ahead of Friday’s employment report.

While the financial media loves to hype up non-farm payrolls every month, it’s been years since the report materially affected the market beyond a couple of hours of volatility. Good numbers, bad numbers, and everything in between haven’t been enough to slow down our six-year old bull. And I don’t expect Friday will be any different. While pundits speculate about the risk of too much or too little, barring a black-swan catastrophe, employment will be ancient history by lunchtime.

I’ve been rooting for the breakout, but its inability to mount any kind of follow through is concerning. Trading inside a tight, 20-point range shows both bulls and bears are stubbornly sticking to their positions. That leaves the rest of us wondering which side has more staying power.

I gave the benefit of doubt to bulls because the market didn’t flinch in the face of bearish headlines from Greece, Ukraine, and China. It even rallied as the Fed’s rate hike chatter heated up. Markets that disregard bad news are the best ones to buy. But then we kept hitting a ceiling at 2,120. Demand completely dries up every time we approach this level and we slip back to 2,100 support. While confident owners who refuse to sell keep supply tight, we need fresh demand to keep pushing this higher.

It appears like February’s strong performance sucked in all the potential buyers and now there is no one left to extend this move. While this would be a lot easier if the market went up every day, we know periodic pullbacks are normal and healthy. We shouldn’t fear a dip to the 50-dma at 2,060.

Two red flags hinting at further weakness are the absence enthusiastic dip buying and lack of a painful capitulation bottom. The importance of enthusiastic dip buying is self-explanatory, but to find that bottom, we also need a brutal dip that flushes out the last of the hopeful. This is a relentless intraday selloff that punishes bulls by methodically marching lower until they cannot stomach the thought of watching another dollar evaporate. Only after the hopeful are flushed out and replaced with courageous dip buyers will we find the bottom.

While the market sold off in recent days and undercut support, most of this weakness happened at the open and prices rebounded into the close. That price action is fairly easy to hold through since the afternoon bounce reinvigorates the spirit of the hopeful. It doesn’t feel like we’ve had that completely demoralizing day where everyone gives up hope and decides to sell before it can get any worse. Buying the high-volume capitulation is a great way to capitalize on other trader’s emotions.

The market could bounce on Friday, but I need to see enthusiastic buying before I’ll be convinced. More likely this weakness continues until we refresh the bullish skew carried over from February’s strong performance.

Jani

The 5k Hangover

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks slipped half-a-percent Tuesday, but it was actually a productive day. There was no headline driver for the opening weakness and it appeared like selling for selling’s sake. Monday’s “NASDAQ 5,000” headlines probably spooked a certain contingent and they placed overnight orders to sell the “obvious top”. The cascade of selling continued into mid-day where the market undercut 2,100 support. But just as things appeared to be spiraling out of control, supply dried up and we recovered half of the earlier losses.

While this would be more fun if every day ended in the green, I was actually impressed with the market’s resilience. If we were at overbought levels, today’s technical weakness would have been more than enough to trigger a wider wave of selling. When the market is poised to move one direction, all it takes is the smallest of excuses to get things rolling. If the market wanted to go lower, this was the perfect invitation. But we bounced instead. This tells me we are not excessively overbought and on the verge of collapsing.

While we struggle to find buyers above 2,120, we also cannot shake free sellers under 2,100. One of these day’s we will move out of this tight trading range. The market’s non-reaction to recent bearish geopolitical headlines and looming rate hikes tells us owners are confident and reluctant to sell. Right or wrong, it doesn’t matter. When no one sells, supply remains tight, and prices inch higher.

But all of this is null and void if we cannot climb out of this range. The longer we hold near 2,100, the more likely it is we will come across a dip that doesn’t bounce. I need to see today’s supportive trade continue. Another test of support probably won’t end as well for bulls.

Jani

5,000

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks bounced back from recent weakness as the NASDAQ closed above 5,000 for the first time since the peak of the dot-com bubble. While it is natural to draw comparisons to those go-go days, the underlying economics couldn’t be more different. Fifteen years later we finally grew into those lofty valuations and almost all the biggest tech companies are now boring dividend investments.

But since everyone wants to talk about bubbles, the one thing we all can agree on is they go waaaaaaaaaay too far before bursting. Markets don’t correct after getting a little carried away, they cross state lines and end up in Mexico before slowing down. While it is getting harder and harder to find good deals in this market, there is still plenty of room to go before this market screams of frothy excess.

Shorter-term, recent headline fear-mongering and weak price-action opened the door to wider selling, but bears just couldn’t get it done. When markets have every excuse to sell off, but hold steady instead, we have to respect that behavior and cannot fight it. While bears might ultimately be right, bulls are making all the money. It’s cliché, but I’d rather make money than be right.

I remain concerned about the elevated bullishness, but the price-action tells us this move isn’t done. Watch for either further sideways consolidation before moving higher, or a quick run up before pulling back to support. Tuesday will give us an indication of what the market intends to do next.

Jani

Time to Get Nervous?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Source: Stocktwits.com

End of Day Update:

Stocks slipped modestly on below average volume as the trend of tight trade continues. We remain above 2,100 support, but breakout buying is noticeably absent. I’ve been inclined to give the market time to make its next move, but this anemic wedge higher is a concern.

This resilience in the face of materially bearish headlines shows owners are reluctant to sell regardless of the economic and geopolitical news. The resulting tight supply has been propping us up. While this conviction is providing stability in an uncertain world, we need broader buying to keep pushing us to the next level. Short covering and technical breakout buying got us this far, but now we need a larger pool of buyers to step up. If few are willing to buy record highs, then it doesn’t matter how tight supply is.

My biggest concern is the swelling bullishness without much price appreciation. Stocktwits’ SPY stream has gone from 40% bullish in January to 62% bullish tonight. In recent months 60% has been the magical sell signal and is why it feels like this rebound is stalling due to a lack of new buying. When everyone believes in something and is fully invested, there is no one left to keep bidding up the price.

Depending on a person’s timeframe, they could hold through the dip to support that purges this excessive bullishness. But anyone with new money should hold off buying and wait for better prices in coming weeks.

Jani

Price Trumps Sentiment

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks traded in a tight, five-point range Monday, consolidating Friday’s breakout to new highs. While we spent all of the day in the red, such minor losses are constructive because it shows few owners are taking profits or selling defensively.

Bullish sentiment is ramping up and at the highest levels since December’s top. While rising sentiment gives us pause, 56% bullishness could easily give way to 65% or 70% in coming days. It is important to watch sentiment, but it is only a secondary indicator.

Price is the main driver of trading strategy and so far the price-action is strong. The most impressive thing is how well the market is weathering the storm of bearish headlines. On-again, off-again negotiations between Greece and Europe couldn’t dent this rebound. Neither could a failed truce in Ukraine. And it’s been a while since we had economic numbers exceeded expectations. All of these headlines should have sent us into a 200-point tail-spin, but when the market doesn’t do what it is supposed to, that is a very clear signal it wants to go the other direction. If we don’t selling off on negative headlines, what is going to happen when we finally get some good news?

Source: Stocktwits 2/23/2015

While I remain cautious of this market because of the rising bullishness, this strength cannot be ignored. Right or wrong, stock owners are not interested in selling. Without sellers, supply stays tight and prices continue creeping higher. Until we find something that finally cracks bulls’ resolve, the only direction to trade this market is higher.

Jani

Stalling or Consolidating?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks were unable to break through 2,100 for a fourth day. Should we be worried?

There are two ways to interpret this price-action. If demand dries up above 2,100, that tells us this rebound is running out of steam. The more bullish interpretation is we are consolidating recent gains before making the next leg higher.

How do we know which scenario applies here? Technicians claim all we need is price, but price alone doesn’t give us the answer. We need to dig deeper into the market’s psyche to figure out what traders are thinking and how they are positioned.

We would be stalling if the market was unable to break 2,100 with bullish headlines blowing at our back. When things are as upbeat as they can get, yet the market fails to make further progress, that tells us we ran out of buyers. With headlines screaming Greece, Ukraine, rate hikes, falling oil prices, and slowing global growth, it is a big stretch to claim this rally has a tailwind.

It is far easier to make the argument we are stubbornly holding up in the face of a tidal wave of bad news. Bears are dumbfounded by how “stupid” this market is for not breaking down when there are so many obvious reasons we should be plunging. But here’s the thing, these bearish headlines have been around for weeks. Anyone who fears these stories sold weeks ago to buyers willing to own these risks. Once everyone who is afraid of an event leaves the market, then it can no longer hurt us because there is no one left to sell it. And that is exactly what happened. Greek and European negotiations blew up in a spectacular fashion Monday, yet Tuesday we set record highs. Strength in the face of bad news tells us this market still wants to go higher. Short this market at your peril.

Jani

Why We Should Stop Worrying About Greece

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

Stocks ended flat as all eyes were turned toward a meeting between Greece and European finance ministers. While progress was made, they failed to reach an agreement and pushed the final deal making to Monday’s meeting.

Clearly the market should be paying attention, but is it something we need to worry about? It seems every bearish amateur investor with a Twitter account is proclaiming the #Grexit will annihilate our market. They confidently believe they have some cunning insight that everyone else is too stupid to recognize. But do they really?

In the summer of 2008, very few professionals knew what MBS and CDS stood for, let alone the risks they posed to our financial system. Only in the aftermath of the collapse did people finally realize what happened. Now compare that blindside to the Grexit that retail investors have been discussing in coffee shops for nearly five years. Everyone in the market is fixated on each twist and turn in the Greek story, meaning if this thing blows up, it won’t catch anyone by surprise. Some predict this is just another false alarm, but even the optimist is well aware of the risks because this story is moving so slowly it is nearly old enough to enter kindergarten. With so much time to prepare, major institutions long ago hedged their exposure and a Greek default will be as traumatic to our financial system as Y2K was.

And there is another thing, markets tend to blow negative news out of proportion. The herd gets spooked and traders stampede for the exits. But we haven’t seen the fear of the unknown and the herd selling yet. What gives?

While every bearish amateur is waiting for the other shoe to drop, what if it already dropped, only no one heard it? If everyone knows about something and has plenty of time to prepare, doesn’t that mean it is already priced in? Hasn’t everyone who fears the #Grexit had plenty of time to sell? If all these people sold ahead of time, then who is left to sell when it happens? Contrary to popular perception, the market doesn’t need to crash for bearish news to be priced in.

There are a lot of things for us to worry about, but the Grexit is not one of them. The market is not reacting to these headlines, not because it is stupid, but because it is more savvy than the amateur investors predicting its demise.

Jani

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To Grexit or not to Grexit

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 rebounded from recent weakness and ended at the highest close of the year. Declining oil prices were no longer an excuse for traders to sell stocks as oil gave up a portion of recent gains.

The headline justification for today’s rally was a softening of the standoff between Greek leadership and the ECB. Greece’s new leaders are discovering there is a difference between making campaign promises and being held accountable for the unintended consequences of those decisions.

While the Greek situation could continue to unravel, anyone who fears a Grexit already sold. Those that are left demonstrated they are mostly indifferent to the whole situation and are just as likely to ignore the next round of headlines out of Europe.

When the market is sitting 1% from all-time highs in spite of the fearful headlines, it shows it doesn’t care about these concerns because they are already priced in. Market strength in the face of fear mongering is a buying opportunity. That doesn’t mean the rally is invincible, only that bears will need to come up with something new and unexpected if they want to break the market.

Technically the market is acting well. We found support near 2,050 and the 50dma, setting the stage for today’s upside move to 2,070. The pain trade is betting against the bears since further upside will force them to cover their shorts.

While I expect higher prices in the near-term, I remain cautious further out. The last few years have been an easy, elevator ride higher, but a recent increase in realized volatility shows the market’s personality is shifting. At this point I’m far more likely to sell a breakout to all-time highs than buy it. But I reserve the right to change my mind as new information comes to light.

Jani

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Do We Need to Worry?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks stumbled for a second day on intensifying rhetoric from Greece’s new leadership. That was enough to spook European markets and bring ours down in sympathy. But the low-volume, 0.4% loss was almost sleepy as compared to recent volatility.

While the S&P500 failed to hold 2,050 support, there was little urgency from participants to sell the violation. Owners seem fairly comfortable with these headlines and price-action. That confidence would crumble if losses accelerate, but as long as owners continue holding, we won’t have the supply necessary to pressure prices.

Last week’s rebound relieved bulls, but sentiment remains cautious. AAII and Stocktwits sentiment measures saw a big drop in bullishness last week, no surprise given recent headlines. But stable prices in the face of fear-mongering means most of it is already priced in. Those afraid of these headlines had plenty of time to sell, meaning anyone still holding stocks is demonstrating a willingness to own this risk.

While any number of geopolitical situations could flare-up, stability around 2,050 for a couple more days tells us the market is inclined to continue higher. When the market has every reason to sell off, but it insists on going higher, don’t fight it. On the other hand, if we cannot hold the 50dma Tuesday, we have a date with the 200dma.

Jani

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Bullish Signs

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks continued the rebound, adding another 1% and closing just shy of January’s double tops at 2,065. Volume was average, but lower than the last six days of elevated trade.

While the market surged 15-points at the open, from there it was one of the most benign days of the year as we traded inside a five-point channel between 2,055 and 2,060. I cannot remember the last time we saw such laid-back intraday trade. We finally “broke out” to the upside in the final minutes of the day, if you count a two-point move to 2,062 as a breakout.

Just a few days ago I was talking about 120-point intraday swings and now a two-point surge at the close is the best we can do. Amazing how quickly things change. Calm, rational, stable trade is good for the markets, suggesting this is more than a dead-cat bounce.

Sentiment remains in the toilet. Stocktwits’ SPY stream is 55% bearish while the latest AAII survey showed bearishness surging 10% and bullishness plunging 9%. It appears recent volatility and fearful headlines have discouraged a large number of retail investors.

But just when things look the worst is usually when they turn around. This is where the last of the hopeful holdouts call it quits and sell their stock at a discount because they cannot stomach the thought of another downday. But once they finish selling, supply tightens up and we bounce. And so far that is exactly what’s happened.

Everyone who fears falling oil prices, Euro uncertainty, and volatility sold to thick-skinned bargain hunters willing to hold the risk. The current crop of owners demonstrated a willingness to own this uncertainty. That’s why when oil falls or tensions flare up in Europe, the market is indifferent. The new owners don’t care about those issues. Right or wrong, prices remain firm when no one sells.

Friday morning we get employment. While this is usually good for a few minutes of volatility, it’s been years since an employment report changed the direction of the market. The talking heads love to hype it up, but it will be ancient history by lunchtime.

Technically the big milestone is 2,065. We were turned back twice in January at this level and a lot of traders will be watching it. If we break it, expect a wave of breakout buying and short-covering. From there we will have to see how the market behaves before deciding if this bounce has the resilience to continue to all-time highs.

Jani

Does Oil Still Matter?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks slogged through most of the day in the red, taken down by a huge drop in oil prices. A late-day rally shook off the early doldrums, pushing us into the green, but that was short-lived as a last-minute headline out of Europe sent the market tumbling into the close.

As dramatic as that sounds, the day was a fairly benign relatively speaking. The market traded sideways, mostly staying between 2,040 and 2,050. This compares favorably to the massive swings we’ve seen in recent sessions.

With oil down as much as 9%, it was constructive to see the market slip only a fraction of a percent. That shows a big chunk of the oil story is already priced in. Anyone afraid of plunging oil prices sold weeks ago, and is why today’s oil dip didn’t concern current owners much. In fact, it was quite bullish to see the market break into the green toward the end of the day. That is, until the ECB rained on our parade.

Without getting too technical, the ECB decided to play hardball with Greece’s newly elected, anti-austerity leaders. This high-stakes game of chicken roiled markets in the final minutes. But the question we have to ask is if Greece still matters? We’ve been down this road before. Back then numerous financial institutions were vulnerable to a Greek default, but this time it is less of a surprise and the bulk of Greek debt is held by governments. While German taxpayers won’t be happy, at least this time it shouldn’t threaten to seize European banking flows.

But that kind of thinking uses logic, not the market’s strong suit in uncertain times. This afternoon’s sell-first, ask-questions-later later mentality could send prices careening dramatically lower Thursday. But at the same time, many traders who lived through multiple Greek crises could see this as just another Red Herring trying to get them to sell their stocks for a discount. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. It will be interesting to see which mindset traders show up with Thursday morning. So far overnight futures are down modestly, suggesting the Greek story is not spiraling out of control.

Technically, the market struggled with 2,050 resistance the last two days. Look for a surge of breakout buying and short-covering if we get through this level. That should push us to 2,060, which will be a far larger test of this young rebound since that is where we stalled multiple times in January. On the downside, be wary of an inability to reclaim the 50dma and 2,050. If the market cannot keep recent gains and slips under 2,020, then we will most like continue sliding through the 200dma.

Jani

Why This Isn’t Done Yet

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks exploded higher for a second day. Some claimed headlines out of Australia, Europe, and the oil market were the catalyst for this rebound, but the market’s stubborn resilience at 2,000 was telling us days ago that it wanted to go higher. When prices refuse to break down on bearish headlines, it doesn’t take much to send us higher.

Volume was well above average as shorts were squeezed when we crossed technical resistance at 2,020 in early trade and broke above the 50dma late in the day. Any short with disciplined stop-losses was sent scrambling by this strength. We closed just a hair under 2,050 and this will be the next meaningful level the market needs to summit if this rebound is to continue. But the bigger test will be the third attempt at 2,060, a level two previous rallies stalled at in January.

Sentiment remains fairly bearish. While today’s rebound softened some of that pessimism, the 70-point rebound has been so swift, few have had the opportunity to buy back in. That means there is still a huge pool of recent sellers that need to get back in if the market keeps going up. Reactive sellers become reactive buyers, and the volatility continues.

An increase in volatility is a common symptom of changes in trend and I remain wary of this market over the medium-term, but as a swing-trader is hard not to exploit this bounce for a quick buck. I’m not sure if we will set new all-time highs, but breaking 2,060 and triggering another round of breakout buying and short-squeezing seems likely.

Jani

Where is the Breakdown?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

This morning stocks continued Friday’s late-day sell off and undercut recent support at 1,990. This was the lowest we’ve been since mid-December and the technical weakness triggered a wave of stop-loss selling. But it didn’t devolve panicked rush of the exits and we quickly bounced off 1,980, ultimately closing higher by a very respectable 1.3%.

Today’s wild, 120-point intraday ride continues the wide and loose trade. While volatility is rarely good for markets, the inability for threatening headlines and dramatic price-action to trigger wider selling leads me to believe we are close to a near-term bottom. The market’s given us plenty of reasons to sell, yet owners and buyers have stubbornly hung on to this 2,000+/- region.

Source: Stocktwits.com 2/2/2015

I remain fairly pessimistic, but when the market isn’t doing what I think it should, then I have to reevaluate. Resisting so many opportunities to breakdown tells us there is more support than most assume. I continue to be wary of the market’s medium-term prospects, but when it doesn’t want to go down, then we cannot fight it. Even if this is just a bull trap that stalls near the 50dma, it is best for shorts to take profits and step aside.

Part of what makes me reconsider my negative outlook is how pessimistic traders have become. Stocktwits’ SPY bullish sentiment dipped under 40%, a fairly reliable buy signal recently. Many of the gurus on TV also expect us to continue sliding. But if the pessimists have already sold and those still holding are hunkered down and prepared to sit through bigger declines, then who is the incremental seller? When we run out of supply, then it doesn’t matter what the headlines are.

Jani

Does This Mean We’re Safe?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks bounced back, reclaiming a big chunk of Wednesday’s losses. Volatility remains insane as today’s 35-point intraday surge nearly matches yesterday’s 40-points intraday slide.

While today’s third bounce off of 1,990 revives bull’s confidence, it is hard to feel good about a market that whips around 2% a day. Boring markets are healthy and bullish, but this market is anything but boring.

We are only three-percent from all-time highs, but this volatility shows uneasiness creeping in. The Wall Street Journal reports intraday price ranges have swelled 50% this year as compared to 2014’s more sedate trade. Yet the VIX remains under its 10-year average of 20, showing lower than typical levels of fear. And not only is the market near all-time highs, we are also trading at premium forward earnings multiples versus historic averages, 17 vs 14.6.

Source: WSJ.com

Record stock prices, increasing realized volatility, low implied volatility, and stretched multiples; makes you wonder if smart money is buying or selling here. Okay, I admit that was a rhetorical question because the answer is obvious.

Stay safe.

Jani

That Hurt

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks took bullish, blowout earnings from AAPL and turned them into a gut wrenching selloff. When the market crumbles on good news, you know we are in trouble. Some blame the weakness on the Fed’s midday policy statement claiming the economy is expanding at a “solid pace” and job gains are strong. Funny the world we live in when great news triggers a 40-point intraday selloff.

But this shouldn’t surprise regular readers of this blog. For a while we’ve noted the weak demand every time this market tried to rebound. The elevated volatility is also a grave concern because it tells us the market’s personality is changing. That doesn’t mean we are headed for a 2008 style collapse, but we shouldn’t automatically expect every dip to be a buying opportunity. We knew this pattern couldn’t last forever and this time the weakness feels different.

Today’s selloff closed above key psychological support at 2,000, but the market closed before the late-day sell off could take us any lower so I’m not sure that qualifies as holding support. There is a lot of pressure on bulls to get this turned around Thursday. If we break under 2,000 support, December lows and the 200dma are the next stop as formerly confident and complacent bulls turn into scared sellers.

While I remain skeptical of this market, I will have to reevaluate my outlook if the market bounces and breaks through overhead resistance at 2,060.

No doubt Thursday will be an interesting and insightful day.

Jani

Failing Support

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks stumbled on a combination of disappointing economic news and weak blue chip earnings. We crashed through technical support at the open, recovering some of those losses by the close, but not enough to push the market back above support.

It is a strange world we live in when markets rally on seemingly devastating news for Euro stability, but then a hodgepodge of obscure economic indicators and company earnings take the market’s legs out. Volatility has become par for the course and nothing should surprise us anymore.

The thing that troubles me is we have seen very little volatility in the market’s steady ascent from the 2011 lows. For a long stretch, we could count all the 1% moves on our fingers. But more recently, a 1% move is benign and more often we are surging and crashing from day-to-day. It really feels like the market’s personality is changing. If that’s the case, it means we are going from steady up trend to something else. Maybe that’s choppy sideways trade. Maybe it’s the long-awaited correction. Or maybe we explode higher in one last surge before collapsing. Only a few percent from all-time highs, it is hard to conclude which of these outcomes is happening, all we can say for sure is this feels different.

Index futures are up after Apple’s blowout earnings, but the market decoupled from Apple a few years ago and the two often trade independently. A big move for Apple doesn’t automatically raise all boats in the S&P500. Outside of a brief pop at the open, the Apple story will become a single stock event and the rest of the market will quickly return to whatever else has been driving it recently.

Technically, if the market cannot reclaim 2,050 by Wednesday’s close, that shows we are running out of buyers and should prepare for a test of the 200dma. This the time for bulls to show they are still in control. If they cannot, lookout below.

Jani

What Grexit?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks bounced back from opening weakness following the Greek elections. While this result significantly increases the chances for a “Grexit”, we’ve been down this road before. Last time selling Greek uncertainty was a mistake and it appears traders don’t want to be fooled a second time. Headlines that triggered a wave of selling a few years ago, barely budged the needle today.

Two mitigating factors are the election’s result was widely expected and most institutions have hedged their exposure to Greek default. So it’s not a surprise the market’s reaction was so muted. Of course the thing to be aware of is the lack of a selloff leaves us vulnerable if the situation devolves and is worse than expected.

But just because we don’t have to worry about Greece doesn’t mean we have nothing to worry about. The market is up nearly 100% from the 2011 lows and anyone betting on this market is fat, dumb, and happy. While the market can always continue higher, it is getting harder and harder to find cynics to convert into believers. Markets top when everything looks the best because that is when everyone has already bought all the stock they can.

Trading near record highs, it is hard to identify the next buying catalyst since there is so little fear. While we could see a temporary surge if we break through recent resistance at 2,060, that momentum will likely only carry us to previous highs near 2,100. After that it is hard to figure out what is going to get those that haven’t bought yet to start. If we run out of demand, that leaves us with two outcomes, an extended trading range, or the larger selloff everyone’s been predicting since 2011.

If we hold 2,050 through Wednesday, then we will test the old highs. Fail and prepare for a swift ride to the 200dma.

Jani

Not Done Yet

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update:

Stocks slipped for a fifth consecutive day as overseas concerns dominated financial headlines. After three years of currency manipulation, Switzerland gave up and let the franc float. It exploded higher, catching many traders and institutions off guard.

While this move won’t have much of an impact on US earnings, it affects the financial system. Traders who have margin calls in one asset class, raise capital by selling other assets, often those showing the biggest gains. That means we could see some liquidation pressure on US equities. But bigger than just margin calls, this also affects sentiment.

We went from all-time highs a few weeks ago, to obsessing over the half-empty side of the glass. Since every dip has been a buying opportunity, many owners are complacent and not worried about headline noise. The market bounced before and they assume it will bounce again. That’s why we haven’t seen huge waves of selling yet. It also means there are a lot of potential sellers still hiding in the market.

Currently overnight futures are down nearly a percent. If this weakness holds to the open, that puts us near December’s lows. Break that and previously confident owners will start getting nervous. Not far below is the 200dma. Undercutting both of these key levels would trigger a large wave of selling and finally form a capitulation bottom. And that is the bullish scenario. Things get ugly if we crash through 1,950 without finding a bottom. That’s when panic selling takes over and we retest October’s lows.

Jani

What Was That?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily at end of day

End of Day Update: 

Stocks gapped higher at the open, but buyers failed to embrace the surge and we crashed into the red by early afternoon. It is difficult to come up with anything constructive to say about this price-action. The market gave bulls the perfect kick-start to setoff a short-squeeze and trigger another wave of dip-buying. If we were oversold, that is exactly what would have happened…but it didn’t.

The obvious takeaway is this market is not oversold and we are not poised to rebound. That means we still have more downside before this correction is done. While today’s volume was higher, this wasn’t capitulation. We didn’t undercut recent lows and even though the intraday move was more than two-percent, the closing loss was a barely noteworthy quarter-of-a-percent. The only people who noticed the enormity of today’s move were the ones who follow the market tick-by-tick. To everyone else, this was another uneventful day.

The market is searching for direction. While we are several percent off the highs, we are also making a series of higher-lows. This pennant pattern can only last so long before the market has to breakout to either the upside or downside. This morning we stubbed our head on the high side, but we also found afternoon support on the low-end.

For all the reasons I listed in previous posts, it looks like we have more downside ahead of us. Breaking 2,000 will set off a wave of selling that takes us down to the 200dma. Fail to hold that and a retest of October’s lows is in the cards. While this could be a plunge over a few days, it could also be a slow grind lower over several months. We will see what happens in coming days, but it is hard to get excited by anything the market is showing us since logging new highs two weeks ago.

Jani