End of Day Analysis Archives - Page 19 of 56

Jul 28

What the indexes are telling is coming next, plus the best way to trade Bitcoin’s next move

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another do-nothing session for the S&P 500.

As dramatic as last week felt, it didn’t change anything and we are still stuck in the dog days of summer. Big money is on vacation and they are the only ones with enough firepower to move markets in a meaningful and sustainable way. The rest of these summer peanut-shooters expend all of their capital in a matter of hours and is why price moves bounce back so quickly.

As I wrote previously, it’s been a very nice, nearly 5% run this summer and a sideways consolidation is long overdue. Expect the market to grind sideways into the fall and that is when things will get more interesting. But until then, keep expectations low.

And remember, sideways includes lots of up and down that doesn’t go anywhere. Avoid the temptation to read too much into any and every gyration because most will fizzle and reverse not long after they get started.

The only thing that would change my mind is a sustained move above 4,400 or a dip under 4,250. Until then, the next few weeks is nothing more than a boring grind sideways.

Bitcoin’s pop back to $40k resistance this week has been impressive. And just as meaningful is holding those gains the last few days. Unsustainable moves tend to retreat under their own weight fairly quickly and staying at these levels tells us the market believes in this price. That said, I would be quick to lock in profits if this retreats back under $40k. Above $40k, this is a buyable breakout. Under $40k, it is stuck in a $30k to $40k trading range and we want to be sellers at the top of the range.

Which is this? Smart traders follow the market’s lead and we will have our answer soon enough.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 27

Why Tuesday’s loss was bullish, but it still doesn’t matter

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday was a mixed session for the S&P 500. The index opened with losses and the one-way selling knocked stocks down more than 50-points in midday trade.

The CDC reversed its guidance and now these alleged experts tell us vaccinated people should resume wearing masks in most of the country due to the pervasive Delta variant.

While this is a flip-flop from previous guidance and wearing masks is most definitely uncomfortable, this announcement was not an economic development. As we have seen over the last 12 months, mask-wearing is not a meaningful economic deterrent. The stock market rallied nearly 100% from the Covid lows while everyone was wearing masks and a return of those policies won’t make a difference to the stock market. Consumers (and investors) still have money burning a hole in their pockets and they will continue spending it regardless of their mask status.

And unsurprisingly, it didn’t take long for cooler heads in the market to prevail and the index bounced decisively off of those midday lows. Prices still closed in the red but they recovered more than half of those early losses and that resilience is considered a win for the bulls.

As I’ve been writing over the last few weeks, this remains a strong market and owners remain stubbornly confident. That is keeping a floor under prices and decisively rebutting things like last week’s selloff. But at the same time, we’ve come a long way and some sideways consolidation is long overdue.

The most important thing to remember about sideways consolidations, all of the ups and downs inside the consolidation are totally meaningless!!! Things will get more interesting this fall when big money managers return from summer vacation and start adjusting their portfolios ahead of year-end. Until then, these daily gyrations don’t matter.

The lone exception to the above analysis is if the index falls under last week’s lows. Slip under 4,250 and all bets are off. Until then, “this ain’t nothin’ but a thang.”

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 26

The index is back to making new highs, but for how long?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Following last week’s brief bout of volatility, the S&P 500 slipped back into its more leisurely summer mood on Monday, adding a modest 0.24%. But that was good enough for yet another record close and last week’s second thoughts are quickly fading from memory.

More important than this almost imperceptible 0.24% gain is the index continues holding last week’s bounce. False bottoms fail quickly and they most definitely don’t keep making new highs. By those measures, last week’s selloff is clearly dead and this bounce is the real deal.

But as I wrote last week, I also don’t have high expectations for big gains over the near term. It’s been a good run over the last few months and the rally will likely stall and grind sideways into the fall. That said, this is just my opinion and the market is always willing to prove me wrong. At the moment, the rally is trading well enough to be worth sticking with, just come into this trade with measured expectations.

We are a few weeks into earnings season and while we still have a lot of important companies yet to report, if there was something structurally wrong with the economy, it would have shown up already in the first wave of earnings. While we will continue to see individual winners and losers, overall, the economy looks to be in pretty good shape.

Inflation, money printing, deficits, the Delta variant, and all of the other reasons stocks should tumble from these highs are still out there. But most investors don’t seem to care and when they don’t care, I don’t care.

Knowing what we know now, selling last week’s dip at our stops was not necessary, but there was no way to know that at the time. Smart money trades everything as if it is the real deal because you know what, it often turns out to be exactly that.

That said, we actually got lucky last week. Locking in some nice profits the previous week near the highs allowed us to jump in at lower prices during last Tuesday’s bounce. While that modest exchange isn’t making anyone rich, it is hard to beat protecting ourselves from a much larger selloff and getting paid to do it!

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 22

What this week’s volatility means for the remainder of the summer (and it isn’t what you think)

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Blink and you missed this week’s collapse and bounce-back in the S&P 500. While Monday’s tumble was the biggest one-day drop in three months, Tuesday’s rebound was equally impressive. And here we stand a few days later, right back where we started and wondering what the heck just happened?

But this pick-up volatility isn’t a surprise for readers of this blog. As I wrote over a week ago, we needed to approach this run to 4,400 with a healthy dose of skepticism and that proved to be valuable advice as the index shed nearly 150 points over the next three trading sessions:

Now to be clear, I’m not calling a top, simply pointing out the risk/reward is no longer skewed in our favor. In fact, following a 5% move over four short weeks, the risk/reward is most definitely skewed against us.

The first part of my comment, “I’m not calling a top”, is now the most relevant part for us going forward from here.

Three days later and Monday’s selloff is dead. Emotional selloffs need emotion to keep going and this one lost all of its momentum following this three-day bounce. Nervous owners are no longer nervous and that makes a world of difference when it comes to convincing people to make irrational trading decisions.

But just because owners are confident again doesn’t mean everything is back to the way it was last week. No, those with cash are still having second thoughts and reservations about chasing stocks near all-time highs.

Confident owners that don’t want to sell and gun-shy buyers afraid of these high prices is the perfect recipe for a prolonged sideways grind under 4,400 resistance. Something that will stretch out for the rest of the summer.

That said, while I don’t expect this market to go anywhere anytime soon, buying Tuesday’s bounce was still a great entry point. For anyone that got in early, they can move their stops up to their entry points, giving themselves a free trade. While the market might not go anywhere for a while, it is hard to beat the risk/reward of a free trade! (go up and we make money, go down and we get out at breakeven)

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 14

Why bulls need to get defensive, plus an important lesson from ZM

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another lazy summer session for the S&P 500 as it added a barely noticeable 0.12%.

Nearly a month ago things looked far less constructive as the index crashed through 4,200 support. But four short weeks later, we are a stone’s throw from 4,400. Funny how that works.

But just like how last month’s dip was bound to bounce, this months’ rally is going to stall. That’s how this game works. Buy when other people are fearful, sell when they are greedy.

Now to be clear, I’m not calling a top, simply pointing out the risk/reward is no longer skewed in our favor. In fact, following a 5% move over four short weeks, the risk/reward is most definitely skewed against us.

Sometimes it makes sense to buy the uncertainty. Other times it makes sense to sell the confidence. And the most important thing to remember is we only make money when we sell our winners. And often the best time to sell is when we are the most reluctant to let go.

Often the most reliable trading signals are buying when you don’t want to buy and selling when you don’t want to sell. Think about that for a second. How many great trades did you miss because you were too afraid to pull the trigger? And on the other side, how many great trades did you let implode because you didn’t want to lock in some nice profits when you had them?

Maybe stocks continue higher. Maybe they stall at 4,400 for a while. Or maybe they retreat and retrench a little before the next leg higher. But no matter what they do, the odds are most definitely stacked against another 5% rally over the next four weeks.

ZM is showing us what happens when we hang on a little too long. As I wrote a couple of months ago, the bounce off of $300 was an attractive buyable entry. But after the stocks rallied more than 30%, I told readers last week this was a good time to protect those profits. And here we are a handful of days later and the stock has already given back 40% of those nice profits. Easy come easy go.

As the stock market saying goes, “bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered”. Don’t be a pig.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 13

The critical moves to make now that the index is challenging 4,400

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday proved to be a mixed session for the S&P 500. Early strength tagged yet another intraday record high, this time cresting 4,390. This latest move put the index within whispering distance of the psychologically significant 4,400. Unfortunately, a midday selloff prevented us from closing at those levels and instead, the index gave up a very modest third of a percent.

Two steps forward, one step back, that’s how this game works. But the thing is, a third of a percent retreat doesn’t really count as a step back, especially following a 5% rally in less than a month…

At the very least, we should expect the rate of gains to stall at 4,400 for a while. Probably even the remainder of the summer. And here’s the thing, stalling at 4,400 doesn’t mean flatlining at 4,400. There will be some choppiness in this sideways trade, but there is no reason (yet) to think any near-term weakness will trigger larger declines. Instead, this latest run to 4,400 needs to catch its breath and this will most likely transition into a sideways grind.

Quite simply, we need to dial back our expectations for the remainder of the summer. This rally has been moving in 200 point increments and challenging 4,400 puts us at the top of that next step. It is totally unreasonable to expect this rate of gains to continue non-stop to 4,600.

So what’s a trader to do? There is no reason to abandon a flat market, but it does make sense to start locking in some of these nice profits. If this pops above 4,400 sooner than expected, it is easy enough to buy back in. But as I often remind readers, we don’t make money until we sell our winners. And for the nimble swing traders in the audience, these are definitely worthwhile profits that need some pruning.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 12

How what airplanes I fly on affects the index’s near-term outlook, plus what TSLA is up to

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 set yet another record closing high, this time cresting 4,380.

We didn’t have any headlines driving the buying and instead, this was little more than a continuation of the market’s half-full mood. Investors continue seeing the sunny side in everything and are sweeping everything else under the rug.

How much longer can this complacency last? Well, the last meaningful dip (10%) was right before the 2020 election and that was more than half a year ago.

While bears will point to this long stretch of uninterrupted prosperity as proof the next fall is imminent. I look at it the other way. If we lasted 180 days without a meaningful pullback, what are the odds the situation changes tomorrow? (FYI, I also don’t mind getting on rickety old airplanes with rickety old pilots because if they lasted this long, they will almost certainly last one more flight. I fear the young and untested, not the battle-proven.)

No doubt this rally will stall like all of the other rallies that came before it. But don’t expect this reversal to happen in the middle of the slow summer months on zero news. Things could get far more interesting this fall as large investors return from summer vacation and start moving things around ahead of year-end. But until that happens, don’t expect much.

Keep holding for higher prices and lift our trailing stops. The worst thing that will happen to this market is stalling near 4,400. And you know what, that means a few down days are ahead of us so resist the urge to overreact to every bump in the road.

If a person fears a routine 2-3% pullback in the indexes, keep stops close and be ready to lock in some nice profits soon. If these minor gyrations don’t bother you, then keep hanging on and wait to see what comes later this fall.

TSLA popped following Elon’s testimony on Monday. He will take the stand again on Tuesday, but so far most investors like what they hear. And to be honest, a worst-case, $2 billion fine is pocket change for one of the richest men in the world. So while this makes for juicy financial press gossip, it really isn’t material to TSLA. (Some people think this will land Elon in jail. LOL)

Far more important than this trial is $600 support. Fail that and it could trigger another wave of defensive selling. But until that happens, last week’s bounce just above support is buyable. That said, this doesn’t get real interesting until it gets above recent resistance near $700, but so far, so good.

Keep holding TSLA for higher prices but always be ready to pull the plug if this falls under $600.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 07

Why complacency cannot kill this bull market, plus what comes next for the meme stocks

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 added 0.34% Tuesday, bouncing back from Monday’s modest decline. This makes it 10 up days out of the last 12 trading sessions. Not bad.

Headlines remain benign during these slower summer trading sessions. Not much is going on and the market’s half-full mood keeps shrugging off all of the reasons stocks should be lower.

And so far, there is no indication anything is going to change anytime soon. Monday’s 1% midday swoon would have broken a weaker market. Instead, most owners shrugged and kept holding. Say what you want about complacency, but when confident owners refuse to sell, that makes it really hard for any selloff to establish a toehold. And as such, the index finished Wednesday at yet another record close.

After-hours futures are down a quarter of a percent and maybe that means stocks open lower Thursday. But if a person believes a trend is more likely to continue than reverse, any near-term weakness is simply giving us another buying opportunity.

Until selling pushes the index under 4,250 support, I’m holding for higher prices.

As well as the indexes are doing, the meme stocks cannot catch a break. GME fell under $200 support and AMC was rejected by $60 resistance.

I wrote on these pages back in May that GME’s $200 breakout was buyable and the same applied to AMC’s $15 breakout. While I’m no fan of these stocks, I trade the market and when it tells me to buy, I buy. And the same applies when it tells me to sell.

No matter what you think about these stocks long-term, they have been flashing sell signs for a while. When AMC struggled with $60, that was our signal to lock in profits. The same followed GME’s failed flirtation with $300.

Remember, we only make money when we sell our winners. And guess what? If we sell too early, we can always buy back in. It is far easier to do that than it is to wish a stock back up to a level that we regret not selling at.

As for what comes next, there is zero excuse to hold GME under $200 and there is still time to lock in respectable profits in AMC before this one retreats back to support.

As for entry points, GME is buyable only if it reclaims $200 support and AMC is buyable when it breaks above $60 resistance. Until then, these are very clear sells.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jul 06

Why Monday’s index selloff was bullish, plus what ZM has been up to and what we should do with it

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Monday started off well enough for the S&P 500 with the index poking its head into record territory at the open. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and prices tumbled 1% from those early highs in a relentless, one-way selloff.

There wasn’t any news driving the morning selling and instead, this was simply a counter-reaction following seven consecutive days of new record highs, a streak that hasn’t been matched since the late ’90s.

Two steps forward, one step back, that’s all Monday’s selling was. No matter how good things are, down days are inevitable. And as expected, most owners didn’t flinch and prices bounced in midday trade because confident owners refused to succumb to the selling.

While the index ultimately finished 0.2% in the red, this intraday rebound confirms this is still a very resilient market. That means sticking with what has been working and continue holding for higher prices. The only thing that would give me second thoughts is if the selling crashes through 4,250 support. Until then, lookout above.

It’s been a while since I wrote about ZM, but that’s because this stock has been grinding away out of the spotlight. As I told readers a couple of months ago, this stock was buyable following it’s bounce off of $300 support. And look at that, two months later prices are 30% higher.

But as is always the case, we don’t make money until we sell our winners. 30% is a very worthwhile profit for two months of work and demanding more than that is getting a tad greedy. If a person really likes this stock, they can keep holding but move stops up to protect those profits. And even better, take a little off the table. Remember, we can always buy back in if this grind continues through $400. Until then, expect this stock to take a breather at current levels for a while. (Two steps forward, one step back)

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 29

The only thing that would give me second thoughts about the SPX. Plus what’s next for FB.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 touched 4,300 momentarily Tuesday morning before slipping back into the 4,290s in afternoon trade.

There is nothing wrong with a little give-back following a push to a psychologically significant level. While 4,300 isn’t conventional resistance in terms of being an area of prior overhead supply, it can act like resistance simply because people intuitively think in round numbers. And after a nice run like this, it is natural for people to start wondering if this has gone too far?

Initially, the market was attracted to 4,300 because it was where everyone was looking. But once we got there, it turned into a popular spot for like-minded people to start taking profits. And that’s what let the air out of our tires this afternoon. But in reality, this was nothing more than the market moving in waves; two steps forward, one step back. Don’t all yourself to read anything more into it than that.

This remains a half-full market and I don’t see anything suggesting the market’s mood is changing.

(That said, a bigger selloff Wednesday that pushes the index back to 4,250 and we need to reevaluate our outlook. Bounce off of 4,250 and everything is back to normal. Finish at the daily lows and more near-term pain is ahead. But until something fundamentally changes, every dip is a buying opportunity.)

High keeps getting higher and FB is living proof of that.

Things didn’t look so good for the company last fall given all the threats of regulation, breakups, and backlash from the way the company handled the election. But as is often the case, the market knows what the headlines will be long before they are announced. This stock bounced off the lows last winter and it’s been rallying ever since. And the cherry on top is this week a judge threw out the FCC’s antitrust lawsuit.

While a person that waited for these bullish headlines missed a whole lot of upside this year, there is little reason to think this stock has topped here. The trend is higher and we always give the benefit of the doubt to the trend.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 28

Is 4,300 finally too high? Plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free-After Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished Monday at the highest levels in history and the index sits a few points shy of 4,300.

As I’ve been saying for a while, high tends to get even higher and that’s definitely the case with this market.

We will eventually reach a point that is too high (because we always do), but cynics have been calling for a top at 3,800, 3,900, 4k, 4,100, 4,200, and soon to be 4,300. Is there any reason to believe they will be right this time?

That said, this rally could very easily stall at 4,300, but there are not any signs this is going to happen. And until we see evidence in the price action that the trend is changing, we stick with what has been working.

This rally will die like all of the others that came before it, but that cannot happen as long as this bull market keeps making higher highs. Until something changes, keep giving this market the benefit of the doubt.

The FAANG stocks are finally getting their act together after lagging behind all spring. FB and GOOGL have been leading the charge with both making record highs for a while. And AAPL and AMZN are not far behind. NFLX has been the lone laggard, but even that one is showing life following its latest buyable bounce off of $500 support.

Now that the FAANG stocks are trading well again, look for these highfliers to start leading the rest of the market higher.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 24

When complacency will finally catch up to this market and what to do until that happens

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped to record levels at the open and it held those gains through the close.

Weekly unemployment claims are stabilizing at reasonable levels and investors are cheering moderation. Too high signals economic weakness and too low suggests this wave of inflation is only just getting started. Holding between these two extremes is the “just right” investors were looking for

The market’s half-full sentiment keeps getting even fuller. That’s been the theme of the year and it doesn’t look like it will change anytime soon. Owners are confidently holding for higher prices and are shrugging off all of the reasons for stocks to go lower. When owners don’t care about the negatives, supply remains tight and prices are stubbornly buoyant.

No doubt something will come along and knock us down, but until that happens, all lights are green. If this market was as fragile and vulnerable as the bears claim, it would have collapsed by now. Things will get more interesting this fall when institutional investors return from summer vacation and start positioning for year-end. But that is still months away and until then, we should expect more of the same.

Cynics claim this market is fixed/rigged/etc, but if they know that’s the case, shouldn’t they be riding along and making money instead of complaining about it? There is only one way to trade this market and that is sticking with what has been working.

The index is trading well but someone forgot to tell AMZN. But one off day doesn’t mean we should abandon a stock that has been working well for months. On the positive side, NFLX seems to be finding its footing. While this could have slipped under recent lows, that didn’t happen and it looks like dip buyers are finally warming up to these discounts. This remains a buy above $500.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 17

Why the indexes keep telling us they want to go higher, not lower. Plus Bitcoin’s next move.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday turned into another choppy session for the S&P 500 with second thoughts pushing the index back to 4,200 support for the second day in a row. But just like Wednesday, this follow-on selling stalled and bounced back within hours and the index finished the day right back where it started.

Investors keep fretting over the Fed’s interest rate comments, but as has been the case all year, most owners shrugged at the news and kept holding. And Thursday’s wave of selling didn’t change many minds.

The end result is the index tested 4,200 and bounced off of it for the second time in two days. This is the behavior of a strong market, not a weak one.

That said, a third test of support won’t end as favorably. Fall back under 4,200 so soon after bouncing off of it means the ride is about to get a little bumpier. But just like all of the other dips we came across this year, this is a buying opportunity, not a reason to run for the bomb shelter.

Keep holding for higher prices with stops under 4,200. If prices dip under our stops, get out and be ready to buy the next bounce, something that could happen as soon as a few hours later.

Bitcoin popped above $40k this week after Elon said TSLA would consider taking bitcoin payments for cars again if the cryptocurrency can clean up its carbon footprint. That said, the push above $40k was short-lived and we are back in the upper $30k’s again.

At this point, $40k is the line in the sand. Get back above this key level and we are headed back to $50k. But if we keep hitting our head on $40k resistance, anticipate another retreat back to $30k support.

Anyone that bought the bounce off of $30k support should at least consider taking some partial profits near $40k. It is always easier to buy back in than it is to wish prices higher after missing a good selling opportunity.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 16

Will this bull market please let us have one big pullback??? Plus, what ZM’s doing out of the spotlight.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was a choppy session for the S&P 500 as the Fed spooked investors with suggestions of higher interest rates by late 2023.

This accelerated the timeline a bit and convinced some people to hit the “sell everything” button. But as has been the case all year, the selling proved to be fleeting and the index bounced off the midday lows.

Should we be worried about higher interest rates 30 months from now? No, probably not. And that’s why the market’s reaction was fairly subdued.

Maybe we are the lobster and the Fed is slowly raising the temperature on us. Or maybe the Fed is the lobster and the economy is slowly raising the temperature on them. Either way, these things are still a long way off, and as nimble traders, we respond to what is directly in front of us.

While I don’t think any of this really matters over the near term. The market has never once cared what I thought. So I erase “what should” from my mind and replace it with “what is”.

If traders shrug off these headlines on Thursday, everything is already forgiven and forgotten and higher we go. But if the selling continues and knocks us under 4,200 support, few things shatter confidence like screens filled with red.

While I don’t expect anything from Wednesday’s headlines, I sure would love to see this turn into full-on panic selling because that creates a far more interesting (and profitable) trade. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get that lucky.

Until further notice, I’m holding for higher prices. A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up…..

The ex-darling ZM has been staging a stealth comeback over the last several weeks. I have been telling premium subscribers to keep an eye on this bounce since reclaiming $300 support and now the stock finds itself 20% higher. And this doesn’t look like this is the end of the run either. Expect this thing to keep chugging back to $400.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 15

The only way to approach this “do-nothing” market

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday was another “do-nothing” session for the S&P 500. The index slipped 0.2% and this continues the trend of inconsequential tenth-of-a-percent moves near record highs.

Two steps forward, one step back. This is a very boring market, but lucky for us, boring is almost always bullish. As long as we keep getting more up than down, everything is going according to plan.

There have been countless economic data points released over the last few months and the market is taking a half-full attitude toward all of them. Fear-mongering is not spooking investors and as long as the government’s free money keeps flowing, expect stocks to continue grinding away at record highs.

While many of these issues (namely inflation) might come back to haunt us, we trade the price action and as long as the market doesn’t care about these things, then we don’t care about them. If something changes, it will show up in the price action and that is when we will reevaluate our outlook. Until then, ignore the chatter.

Complacency often proceeds the fall. The problem with trading this way is periods of complacency last a long, long time. Anyone who sold the absurd complacency at 3,600, 3,800, or 4k is no doubt kicking themselves for being too hasty.

Savvy traders take their cues from the market, not their intuition. While the cynics might eventually be right, they will be wrong for a long, long time before that happens.

High tends to get even higher and that is exactly what is going on here. Keep holding for higher prices until the market gives us a reason not to.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 14

Shut up and take the free money

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 brushed off early weakness Monday and closed in the green, making this the fourth positive day out of the last five trading sessions. While it takes a magnifying glass to see these 0.1% and 0.2% gains, the most important thing is we keep making higher highs.

As the well-worn market truism tells us, stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. As trivial as these individual gains seem, a pile of them turns into some really nice profits and that’s exactly why this market keeps setting record high after record high.

There are plenty of reasons to dislike stocks at these prices, but most investors have heard all of these recycled criticisms and they still don’t care. When the market doesn’t care about the headlines, then neither should we.

Without a doubt, this bull market will die like all of the others that came before it. But it will hit 4,300 and probably even 4,400 before that happens.

Stick with what has been working and that is holding for higher prices. Trading is rarely this easy. But when it is, the last thing we should fight it. Shut up and take the free money.

While the index added a modest 0.18%, the FAANG stocks popped 1% and 2%!!! This outperformance is absolutely noteworthy. For months these supposed best-of-the-best stocks have been lagging behind and their underperformance has been holding the entire market back.

While one day doesn’t make a new trend, we’ve been seeing pockets of strength bubbling to the surface. GOOG has been trading well for a while. FB is back at the highs. Even AAPL and NFLX have been getting their mojo back. And the laggard of the group, NFLX, has been carving out what looks like it could be a base if the stock holds above $500 support.

The indexes struggled this spring without the FAANG leadership. But if the tide is changing, these stocks could start pushing the entire market higher. If the indexes and the FAANG stocks start rowing together again, it will be a very good summer for everyone that didn’t sell in May.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 10

What’s bad for me is good for you

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped 0.5% Thursday even though inflation came in at the highest level in modern history. But anyone who’s been to the grocery store knew this was coming, so this report didn’t catch anyone off guard.

Inflation is turning into one of those Goldilocks things. Too high and it would have threatened further fiscal and monetary stimulus. Too low and it shows economic stagnation. Instead, the economy threaded the needle between these extremes and investors cheered the “just right” news.

As has been the case all year, this remains a half-full market and most investors continue finding the positives in every headline. While this cannot last forever, the market’s mood doesn’t look like it will change anytime soon.

Cynics believe they’re smarter than everyone else, but those that want to make money have been following the market’s lead. Telling people to embrace a long-established rally sounds like the most brain-dead and uninteresting thing ever, but hey, if it works, who cares?

We are so far into this rally, it is getting hard for me to think of anything new and interesting to say that I haven’t already said. Lucky for you, what’s hard for me has been good for readers that stuck with this rally.

Everything is still on track for a run to 4,300 over the next week or two. From there, 4,400 is easily within reach.

Until the market gives me a reason not to, stick with what has been working.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 09

Why boring indexes are bullish, plus what it takes to hold GME and AMC

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another quiet session for the S&P 500. The index finished in the red, but it is hard to read much into a minuscule, 0.18% dip. More important than red or green is the index remains within a whisper of all-time highs.

Nothing much is going on in the financial headlines and that is allowing the market to do what it wants to do, which is to rally to record highs. Sentiment remains half-full and stock owners are not letting any fear-mongering get in their way.

While this bull market will die like all of the others that came before it, this is not that time. We’ve been stuck near 4,200 for a couple of months and it is getting ready for the next leg higher. A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

This slow grind higher is boring, but that’s the way most successful trades go. While it is fun to ride a bolt of lightning, we only get a few of those per year. The rest of the time we are stuck with these slow-motion moves. That said, I’d rather be bored while making money than excited and losing money.

Maybe something more interesting will happen tomorrow, but probably not. That said, don’t take this calm for granted. One day soon we will be looking back at these calm days longingly. Until then, lookout above.

Nothing makes sense about GME and AMC, but it doesn’t have to. As I’ve been saying for weeks, stupid is prone to getting even stupider and that is the case here.

It would be foolishly reckless to rush into these trades now, but for those that were paying attention and bought the early breakout, we can keep holding for higher prices. That said, stay close to the exits. As quickly as these things rallied, they will fall even faster.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 08

Why more of the same is good for stock bulls, plus how to handle Bitcoin’s latest dip

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday was another do-nothing session for the S&P 500 as it finished up 0.02%, which for most of us counts as exactly where it started.

But as has been the case for a while, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. 4,200 resistance has transitioned to 4,200 support and the slow grind higher continues. No doubt 4,200 will soon turn into to 4,300 and even 4,400 over the next few weeks.

Bears had their chance to break this market and they failed miserably. What they couldn’t finish will soon reward those that have been giving this bull the benefit of doubt.

There is nothing to do here but keep holding for higher prices with stops near last week’s lows.

Bitcoin is getting hammered and back near $30k support. Bounce off of this level and that is a buyable entry. But I’m not so sure bulls will get that lucky this time. Retesting the lows so soon after bouncing off of them a couple of weeks ago, especially in the middle of a well-established downtrend, is not a good sign.

We can buy this initial bounce off of $30k support, but stay near the exits because this will get ugly if it slips into the $20k’s.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 07

Why the S&P 500 will be at 4,400 soon enough and advice for owners and prospective buyers of AMC and GME

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 opened Monday morning almost exactly where it ended Friday afternoon. Nothing happened over the weekend that changed anyone’s mind and the index continues holding near record highs.

There was a 0.2% midday slump that gave a few people second thoughts, but a one or two tenth move in either direction is as normal as breathing for the market. A little wiggle here and there is not meaningful.

More significant is the index continues hovering near all-time highs. Sideways markets almost always favor the prior trend and there is no reason to think this time is any different.

After resting near 4,200 for nearly two months, it is almost time for the next leg up to 4,400. As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. It is almost time.

The meme stocks are back and this once again proves stupid is prone to getting even stupider. AMC and GME are ownable as long as they remain above their recent breakouts. Breakout buyers that got in early are in great shape. Those that missed the initial move are best waiting for another entry because buyers at these dizzying levels are likely to see pretty big losses in the process of holding for higher prices.

FB is the rockstar of the FAANG group and it is making record highs again. Things that are high tend to get even higher and FB definitely fits that description. Keep holding for higher prices and see where this goes.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Category Archives for "End of Day Analysis"

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: