Free Content Archives - Page 20 of 90

Jun 24

When complacency will finally catch up to this market and what to do until that happens

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped to record levels at the open and it held those gains through the close.

Weekly unemployment claims are stabilizing at reasonable levels and investors are cheering moderation. Too high signals economic weakness and too low suggests this wave of inflation is only just getting started. Holding between these two extremes is the “just right” investors were looking for

The market’s half-full sentiment keeps getting even fuller. That’s been the theme of the year and it doesn’t look like it will change anytime soon. Owners are confidently holding for higher prices and are shrugging off all of the reasons for stocks to go lower. When owners don’t care about the negatives, supply remains tight and prices are stubbornly buoyant.

No doubt something will come along and knock us down, but until that happens, all lights are green. If this market was as fragile and vulnerable as the bears claim, it would have collapsed by now. Things will get more interesting this fall when institutional investors return from summer vacation and start positioning for year-end. But that is still months away and until then, we should expect more of the same.

Cynics claim this market is fixed/rigged/etc, but if they know that’s the case, shouldn’t they be riding along and making money instead of complaining about it? There is only one way to trade this market and that is sticking with what has been working.

The index is trading well but someone forgot to tell AMZN. But one off day doesn’t mean we should abandon a stock that has been working well for months. On the positive side, NFLX seems to be finding its footing. While this could have slipped under recent lows, that didn’t happen and it looks like dip buyers are finally warming up to these discounts. This remains a buy above $500.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 17

Why the indexes keep telling us they want to go higher, not lower. Plus Bitcoin’s next move.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday turned into another choppy session for the S&P 500 with second thoughts pushing the index back to 4,200 support for the second day in a row. But just like Wednesday, this follow-on selling stalled and bounced back within hours and the index finished the day right back where it started.

Investors keep fretting over the Fed’s interest rate comments, but as has been the case all year, most owners shrugged at the news and kept holding. And Thursday’s wave of selling didn’t change many minds.

The end result is the index tested 4,200 and bounced off of it for the second time in two days. This is the behavior of a strong market, not a weak one.

That said, a third test of support won’t end as favorably. Fall back under 4,200 so soon after bouncing off of it means the ride is about to get a little bumpier. But just like all of the other dips we came across this year, this is a buying opportunity, not a reason to run for the bomb shelter.

Keep holding for higher prices with stops under 4,200. If prices dip under our stops, get out and be ready to buy the next bounce, something that could happen as soon as a few hours later.

Bitcoin popped above $40k this week after Elon said TSLA would consider taking bitcoin payments for cars again if the cryptocurrency can clean up its carbon footprint. That said, the push above $40k was short-lived and we are back in the upper $30k’s again.

At this point, $40k is the line in the sand. Get back above this key level and we are headed back to $50k. But if we keep hitting our head on $40k resistance, anticipate another retreat back to $30k support.

Anyone that bought the bounce off of $30k support should at least consider taking some partial profits near $40k. It is always easier to buy back in than it is to wish prices higher after missing a good selling opportunity.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 16

Will this bull market please let us have one big pullback??? Plus, what ZM’s doing out of the spotlight.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was a choppy session for the S&P 500 as the Fed spooked investors with suggestions of higher interest rates by late 2023.

This accelerated the timeline a bit and convinced some people to hit the “sell everything” button. But as has been the case all year, the selling proved to be fleeting and the index bounced off the midday lows.

Should we be worried about higher interest rates 30 months from now? No, probably not. And that’s why the market’s reaction was fairly subdued.

Maybe we are the lobster and the Fed is slowly raising the temperature on us. Or maybe the Fed is the lobster and the economy is slowly raising the temperature on them. Either way, these things are still a long way off, and as nimble traders, we respond to what is directly in front of us.

While I don’t think any of this really matters over the near term. The market has never once cared what I thought. So I erase “what should” from my mind and replace it with “what is”.

If traders shrug off these headlines on Thursday, everything is already forgiven and forgotten and higher we go. But if the selling continues and knocks us under 4,200 support, few things shatter confidence like screens filled with red.

While I don’t expect anything from Wednesday’s headlines, I sure would love to see this turn into full-on panic selling because that creates a far more interesting (and profitable) trade. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get that lucky.

Until further notice, I’m holding for higher prices. A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up…..

The ex-darling ZM has been staging a stealth comeback over the last several weeks. I have been telling premium subscribers to keep an eye on this bounce since reclaiming $300 support and now the stock finds itself 20% higher. And this doesn’t look like this is the end of the run either. Expect this thing to keep chugging back to $400.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 15

The only way to approach this “do-nothing” market

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday was another “do-nothing” session for the S&P 500. The index slipped 0.2% and this continues the trend of inconsequential tenth-of-a-percent moves near record highs.

Two steps forward, one step back. This is a very boring market, but lucky for us, boring is almost always bullish. As long as we keep getting more up than down, everything is going according to plan.

There have been countless economic data points released over the last few months and the market is taking a half-full attitude toward all of them. Fear-mongering is not spooking investors and as long as the government’s free money keeps flowing, expect stocks to continue grinding away at record highs.

While many of these issues (namely inflation) might come back to haunt us, we trade the price action and as long as the market doesn’t care about these things, then we don’t care about them. If something changes, it will show up in the price action and that is when we will reevaluate our outlook. Until then, ignore the chatter.

Complacency often proceeds the fall. The problem with trading this way is periods of complacency last a long, long time. Anyone who sold the absurd complacency at 3,600, 3,800, or 4k is no doubt kicking themselves for being too hasty.

Savvy traders take their cues from the market, not their intuition. While the cynics might eventually be right, they will be wrong for a long, long time before that happens.

High tends to get even higher and that is exactly what is going on here. Keep holding for higher prices until the market gives us a reason not to.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 14

Shut up and take the free money

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 brushed off early weakness Monday and closed in the green, making this the fourth positive day out of the last five trading sessions. While it takes a magnifying glass to see these 0.1% and 0.2% gains, the most important thing is we keep making higher highs.

As the well-worn market truism tells us, stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. As trivial as these individual gains seem, a pile of them turns into some really nice profits and that’s exactly why this market keeps setting record high after record high.

There are plenty of reasons to dislike stocks at these prices, but most investors have heard all of these recycled criticisms and they still don’t care. When the market doesn’t care about the headlines, then neither should we.

Without a doubt, this bull market will die like all of the others that came before it. But it will hit 4,300 and probably even 4,400 before that happens.

Stick with what has been working and that is holding for higher prices. Trading is rarely this easy. But when it is, the last thing we should fight it. Shut up and take the free money.

While the index added a modest 0.18%, the FAANG stocks popped 1% and 2%!!! This outperformance is absolutely noteworthy. For months these supposed best-of-the-best stocks have been lagging behind and their underperformance has been holding the entire market back.

While one day doesn’t make a new trend, we’ve been seeing pockets of strength bubbling to the surface. GOOG has been trading well for a while. FB is back at the highs. Even AAPL and NFLX have been getting their mojo back. And the laggard of the group, NFLX, has been carving out what looks like it could be a base if the stock holds above $500 support.

The indexes struggled this spring without the FAANG leadership. But if the tide is changing, these stocks could start pushing the entire market higher. If the indexes and the FAANG stocks start rowing together again, it will be a very good summer for everyone that didn’t sell in May.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 10

What’s bad for me is good for you

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 popped 0.5% Thursday even though inflation came in at the highest level in modern history. But anyone who’s been to the grocery store knew this was coming, so this report didn’t catch anyone off guard.

Inflation is turning into one of those Goldilocks things. Too high and it would have threatened further fiscal and monetary stimulus. Too low and it shows economic stagnation. Instead, the economy threaded the needle between these extremes and investors cheered the “just right” news.

As has been the case all year, this remains a half-full market and most investors continue finding the positives in every headline. While this cannot last forever, the market’s mood doesn’t look like it will change anytime soon.

Cynics believe they’re smarter than everyone else, but those that want to make money have been following the market’s lead. Telling people to embrace a long-established rally sounds like the most brain-dead and uninteresting thing ever, but hey, if it works, who cares?

We are so far into this rally, it is getting hard for me to think of anything new and interesting to say that I haven’t already said. Lucky for you, what’s hard for me has been good for readers that stuck with this rally.

Everything is still on track for a run to 4,300 over the next week or two. From there, 4,400 is easily within reach.

Until the market gives me a reason not to, stick with what has been working.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 09

Why boring indexes are bullish, plus what it takes to hold GME and AMC

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another quiet session for the S&P 500. The index finished in the red, but it is hard to read much into a minuscule, 0.18% dip. More important than red or green is the index remains within a whisper of all-time highs.

Nothing much is going on in the financial headlines and that is allowing the market to do what it wants to do, which is to rally to record highs. Sentiment remains half-full and stock owners are not letting any fear-mongering get in their way.

While this bull market will die like all of the others that came before it, this is not that time. We’ve been stuck near 4,200 for a couple of months and it is getting ready for the next leg higher. A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

This slow grind higher is boring, but that’s the way most successful trades go. While it is fun to ride a bolt of lightning, we only get a few of those per year. The rest of the time we are stuck with these slow-motion moves. That said, I’d rather be bored while making money than excited and losing money.

Maybe something more interesting will happen tomorrow, but probably not. That said, don’t take this calm for granted. One day soon we will be looking back at these calm days longingly. Until then, lookout above.

Nothing makes sense about GME and AMC, but it doesn’t have to. As I’ve been saying for weeks, stupid is prone to getting even stupider and that is the case here.

It would be foolishly reckless to rush into these trades now, but for those that were paying attention and bought the early breakout, we can keep holding for higher prices. That said, stay close to the exits. As quickly as these things rallied, they will fall even faster.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 08

Why more of the same is good for stock bulls, plus how to handle Bitcoin’s latest dip

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday was another do-nothing session for the S&P 500 as it finished up 0.02%, which for most of us counts as exactly where it started.

But as has been the case for a while, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. 4,200 resistance has transitioned to 4,200 support and the slow grind higher continues. No doubt 4,200 will soon turn into to 4,300 and even 4,400 over the next few weeks.

Bears had their chance to break this market and they failed miserably. What they couldn’t finish will soon reward those that have been giving this bull the benefit of doubt.

There is nothing to do here but keep holding for higher prices with stops near last week’s lows.

Bitcoin is getting hammered and back near $30k support. Bounce off of this level and that is a buyable entry. But I’m not so sure bulls will get that lucky this time. Retesting the lows so soon after bouncing off of them a couple of weeks ago, especially in the middle of a well-established downtrend, is not a good sign.

We can buy this initial bounce off of $30k support, but stay near the exits because this will get ugly if it slips into the $20k’s.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 07

Why the S&P 500 will be at 4,400 soon enough and advice for owners and prospective buyers of AMC and GME

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 opened Monday morning almost exactly where it ended Friday afternoon. Nothing happened over the weekend that changed anyone’s mind and the index continues holding near record highs.

There was a 0.2% midday slump that gave a few people second thoughts, but a one or two tenth move in either direction is as normal as breathing for the market. A little wiggle here and there is not meaningful.

More significant is the index continues hovering near all-time highs. Sideways markets almost always favor the prior trend and there is no reason to think this time is any different.

After resting near 4,200 for nearly two months, it is almost time for the next leg up to 4,400. As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. It is almost time.

The meme stocks are back and this once again proves stupid is prone to getting even stupider. AMC and GME are ownable as long as they remain above their recent breakouts. Breakout buyers that got in early are in great shape. Those that missed the initial move are best waiting for another entry because buyers at these dizzying levels are likely to see pretty big losses in the process of holding for higher prices.

FB is the rockstar of the FAANG group and it is making record highs again. Things that are high tend to get even higher and FB definitely fits that description. Keep holding for higher prices and see where this goes.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 06

A common sense approach to figuring out what comes next

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 added 0.61% last week and it continues hovering near record highs despite the relentless inflation warnings.

As I’ve been telling readers all along, if the market cared about these things, it would have crashed by now. Everyone has heard these warnings and those that feared them sold a long time ago. Anyone still holding stocks acknowledges these risks and is unlikely to be spooked by recycling the same old headlines.

This stubborn resilience confirms this is a strong marker, not a weak one. As common sense as this sounds, way too many traders fail to grasp the simple concept that a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

Bears calling for the “inevitable” breakdown will need to wait a while longer. They’ve been predicting a crash for over a year now, what’s a few more months?

The path of least resistance remains higher. Until further notice, keep holding for higher prices and raising our trailing stops.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 03

Why inflation worries don’t move the market anymore. Plus updates on NFLX, GME, and AMC.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday was a bumpy ride for the S&P 500 with the index crashing through 4,200 support at the open and shedding nearly 1%. But as bad as the day started, the selling stalled thirty minutes later and it was all uphill from there.

Headlines again remain benign. The market was initially spooked by unexpectedly low weekly unemployment claims and that stoked inflation worries. But as I’ve been saying for a while, that story has already played out. Most of the people who fear inflation are long gone and were replaced by dip buyers who don’t fear any such thing.

That said, I still think the odds on favorite for killing this bull market is high inflation. But we need more than just early hints of potential inflationary pressures, we need to see the real thing. The boy has cried wolf one too many times and no one is listening to him anymore. Traders need to see the Fed lose control of inflation, not this hypothetical crap. Until then, confident owners will simply ignore the headlines and keep holding.

As much as bears have tried to break this bull market, they cannot get the job done. A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

As much as I like the FAANG stocks, NFLX needs to be taken behind the woodshed. I’m not giving up on this company over the long-term, but the stock’s price action is awful and failing to hold $500 support suggests lower prices are ahead. The latest bounce is dead and savvy longs are already out. And not only that, aggressive traders can short this weakness with a stop just above $500.

The other big news is the silliness continues in GME and AMC. As badly as this will end for most people, stupid still has plenty of room to get even stupider. Early breakout buyers can keep holding for higher prices. But if you missed this trade, it’s too late because there is no way to protect your risk at these levels. Move on and look for something else.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 02

Is the rally stalling at 4,200? Plus, the wrong way to handle AMC.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished within a whisper of 4,200 for the seventh session in a row. That leaves a lot of people asking if this key level is acting as support or resistance?

Aside from two dips in early May, the index has been stuck on 4,200 since mid-April. That’s a month and a half of almost zero headway in either direction, equally frustrating both bulls and bears.

While holding near the highs is almost always a good sign, there comes a point when resilience starts looking more like stalling. Have we reached that tipping point? Not yet…but it is approaching quickly.

As is normally the case, there are two ways this plays out. Either prices continue higher or they stall and reverse.

In these cases, we always give the benefit of doubt to the trend. This is a bull market and that means 9 times out of 10, these things resolve to the upside. If a person likes betting on the higher probability outcome, they are trading this from the long side.

While holding here covers the long side, there is still that 1 out of 10. That’s what our stops are for. Pick a level where you will admit defeat and pull the plug. If the market stays above this level, keep holding. If it slips under, get out and try again next time.

Personally, I like keeping my stops nearby. That allows me to get out early and be in the best position possible to buy the next bounce. But a nearby stop also increases the likelihood of a false alarm. Fortunately, there is an easy fix for that too. As soon as I get out, I’m already looking for the next entry point, even if it comes a few hours later.

Most likely this consolidation will resolve to the upside. But if it dips and forces us out, be on the lookout for the next buyable bounce. And despite what the cynics claim, the least likely outcome is the demise of this bull market. They’ve been wrong for twelve months and they are most likely wrong here too.

TL;DR: Keep holding for higher prices with nearby stops and be ready to get back if a dip pushes us out.

Yesterday I said AMC’s latest breakout was buyable and a few hours later the stock doubles. While I’d love to say I predicted this, I doubt anyone who has been doing this for a while would be bold enough to predict a 100% move over a few short hours.

That said, this had all the right ingredients, namely a stupid following that is prone to getting even stupider.

While holding these irrational moves is great, don’t fall for the hype. This is a trade, not an investment. Stay near the exits and be ready to lock in some heady profits as soon as the cracks start showing. Those that get greedy and hold too long will end up giving everything back and then some.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Jun 01

Why the bull market is still alive and well, plus what to do with AMC at these levels

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Tuesday morning saw a good open turn sour. The S&P 500 pushed to within a whisper of record highs in early trade, but it was all downhill from there. Within an hour, the index retreated more than 30-points and was retesting 4,200 support. But just when things looked their most dire, supply dried up and the market traded sideways the rest of the day, ending two points above this key psychological level.

There were not any new headlines driving this selling and instead, this was simply another flareup of second-guessing over inflation worries.

Indecision and fear of heights is a normal part of every move higher and this rally is no different. But the thing to remember is we’ve been living under these clouds for nearly two months. If they were going to smother this bull market, it would have happened by now. Instead, this is little more than a purge of nervous owners and is replacing these weak sellers with confident buyers who are comfortable holding these risks.

If the first few bouts of indecision couldn’t kill this rally, the third and fourth attempts are even less likely to succeed.

That said, we could still see a dip back to 4k support before this is all said and done. But until something new and unexpected comes along, treat every dip as a buying opportunity.

The meme stocks are making a comeback. GME broke through $200 resistance last week and as I wrote then, this breakout is buyable for the most nimble and risk-tolerant traders. This is trading well and still holdable, but be ready to lock in profits at a moment’s notice because these gains will disappear even quicker than they came.

AMC secured some financing and it looks like it will survive Covid. No doubt investors are happy to see this company on solid financial footing. That said, the stock is trading near record highs. To say this company is in the best shape of its life overlooks a lot of dark clouds hanging over it. Namely the relentless shift to video on demand with many studios now streaming moves simultaneously with their theatrical release.

AMC is a buy for the moment because something that is high tends to get even higher. But never forget, this is a trade, not an investment. Let someone else get stuck holding the bag. Keep holding for higher prices, but be ready to pull the plug as soon as this turns south.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 28

How long until the S&P 500 finally leaves 4,200 behind. Plus, a sensible strategy for trading Bitcoin’s latest dip.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished Thursday 0.88 points above the psychologically significant 4,200. Friday it bested this key level by 4.11.

As trivial as these gains seem, the most important thing is we continue holding near record highs. Markets collapse from unsustainable levels quickly. Holding here all week confirms there is meaningful demand at these levels. As I often write, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

While counting profits as the index races higher is more fun, sideways grinds are a normal and healthy part of every sustainable rally. And you know what, so are dips. Nothing ever goes straight up and that includes this stubbornly resilient bull market.

Looking back at recent history, it took us three months to go from 3,600 to clearing 3,800. There was another three months between 3,800 and the 4k breakout. And counting back from today, we are about two months into the current 4k breakout. If history repeats itself a third time, we should be prepared to wait for another month before finally leaving 4,200 behind.

The index is acting well, but we need to keep our expectations in check and that means being patient a little longer.

Bitcoin slipped back into the mid-$30k’s after flirting with $40k resistance over the last few days. It’s been a rough few weeks as the cryptocurrency shed nearly 50% of its value after Elon Musk renigged on his promise to accept bitcoin at TSLA.

While the $30k bounce was buyable, we really need to see this reclaim $40k support to help put investors at ease. If we cannot get there, a test of $20k support becomes increasingly likely.

If a person bought the $30k bounce, you can keep holding. But if a person is still in cash, wait for a second bounce off of $30k or hold off on buying until this reclaims $40k. Buying anything in the mid-$30k’s is no man’s land and leaves us vulnerable to near-term losses. And if this falls under $30k all bets are off and it is time to abandon ship because this could fall another 30% before finding support at $20k.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 27

Does 4,200 matter? Plus a FB update.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished Thursday up a fairly trivial 0.12%. That said, it was enough to let the index close above the psychologically significant 4,200, if only by 0.88 points.

Does 4,200 really matter? While round numbers always sound nice, in reality, this is just another level and is no different than 4,199 or 4,198. More important than some number that ends in a double zero, now we can move on. From here, 4,200 simply turns into another minor milestone disappearing in the bull market’s rearview mirror.

Inflation worries are gone for now, but no doubt they will be back. And inflation might even cause the demise of this bull market. But that’s an issue for another day. Until then, we trade what’s right in front of us and that is riding the rally higher. With 4,200 down, the next stop is all-time highs.

As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

FB is on fire and closed at all-time highs. So much for the post-election drama hanging over this stock.

And you know what? Stocks that are high tend to get even higher. No reason to give up on what has been working. Keep holding for higher prices and lifting our stops.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 26

Is the index stalling or resting? Plus, what to make of GME’s pop.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Another day, another finish short of 4,200. As well as the index has been trading, it sure is having a heck of a time getting above this psychologically significant level.

As I wrote subscribers earlier today:

Stalling before the fall? Or pause before the next rally?

While both scenarios could easily play out, until proven otherwise, we continue giving the benefit of the doubt to the rally. Holding near the highs is a sign of strength, not weakness. While I would get concerned if we cannot get above 4,200 over the next few weeks, pausing at these levels for a handful of days is a very normal and healthy thing to do.

More important than the lack of follow-on buying is the absence of contageous herd selling every time stocks dip. The market is acting well and the path of least resistance remains higher.

GME smashed through $200 resistance Tuesday afternoon and that surge of buying continued Wednesday. This breakout is very much buyable, but a person has to have an iron stomach, be incredibly nimble, and view this as a very short-term trade. Take profits early and often because they won’t last long.

As I wrote previously:

Wait for the $200 breakout and we can buy the bounce for a quick trade, but only after this gets above $200.

Tuesday was that day and now we’re sitting on 20% profits. Not bad for a few hours of “work”. But don’t get complacent, this thing falls even faster than it climbs. Be ready to take profits at the first hints of trouble and no matter what, do NOT let this trade slip into the red. This could be the last time this stock gets to these levels.

Profit from the hysteria, but don’t fall for the hype.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 25

Why both bulls and bear are trading the S&P 500 wrong, plus how to respond to NFLX’s bounce

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 slipped a modest 0.2% Tuesday and while that size of a decline seems fairly trivial, it is notable this was the second day in a row the index failed to hold early gains above 4,200.

This counts as one of those half-full, half-empty kinds of days. On the positive side, the index remains within a handful of points of all-time highs. Not bad given how unnerved traders felt a couple of weeks ago when inflation worries dominated the headlines. On the other side of the coin, the previous two pullbacks started with rejections by 4,200 resistance. Are we witnessing the start of the third pullback?

Is this just another insignificant hiccup on our way to record highs? Or are we on the verge of the next test of 4k support?

To be honest, I could see either outcome playing out. While bulls and bears are busy arguing why their analysis and outlook is superior to the other side’s, I’m over here crafting a trading plan that accounts for both scenarios. Why pick one or the other when we can have both!

At the moment, I’m riding this wave higher with stops in the mid-4,100s. Buying last week’s dip early gave me entry points at much lower levels and that affords me the flexibility of riding this out with a “free” trade. If this goes higher, great, I collect those profits. If this dips back to 4k support, I get out at my entry points (making this a “free” trade) and I buy the next bounce at even lower levels. Either way, I win. (In fact, a bigger decline here gives me even more profit opportunity buying the next rebound.)

The key to surviving and even thriving during periods like this is trading proactively and decisively. By getting in early, we have a whole lot more options.

NFLX reclaimed $500, making this a buyable bounce. But the subsequent price action has been fairly lethargic. Fall back under $500 and not only does it make sense to close the long, but this turned back into an attractive shorting opportunity. Hang out near the lows long enough and inevitably, we start making even lower-lows.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 24

Why this bull market is doing exactly what it should be doing, plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Monday was a good session for the S&P 500 as it added 1% and pushed up against 4,200 resistance.

The index has been flirting with this key level since April and up to this point, it has been unable to hold above it for any length of time. Monday was no exception with a midday push to 4,209 slipping back to 4,197 by the close.

Should we be worried about the market’s inability to close the deal and put 4,200 in the rearview mirror?

Everyone knows markets move in waves and this is especially true following big directional moves. The index broke through 4k for the first time on April 1st and then it sprinted to 4,200. A 5% surge in two weeks is downright impressive and a little sideways consolidation was the most obvious next step. And that is exactly what the index has done since mid-April.

So I ask again, should we be worried about the market’s inability to close the deal and put 4,200 in the rearview mirror? No, of course not.

This sideways consolidation is very normal and healthy behavior following a big and fast move. In fact, I would be far more concerned about the sustainability of the bull market if that 5% move continued to 10% without taking a break.

Resting here is the right call and it sets a solid foundation for the next leg higher.

As I often write, something that refuses to go down will eventually go up and that is the case here. As hard as bears are trying to break this market, they cannot get the job done. Their failure becomes our gain.

Keep holding for higher prices and lift our stops once the index gets above 4,200.

Monday was a good day for the FAANG stocks, especially FB and GOOG. These are the biggest and most important stocks in the market and their underperformance has been weighing on the entire market. If their recent outperformance continues, expect these stocks to lift the entire market. If their underperformance resumes, expect them to drag all stocks down.

These highflying stocks are the canary in the coalmine and if they start struggling again, all investors need to be paying attention. Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 21

Why bulls should be rooting for a bigger stock pullback, plus how much lower this Bitcoin selloff can go

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 slipped for a second week in a row. But for as ominous as things appeared Wednesday morning, the 0.43% weekly loss seems fairly benign.

This was the second week in a row bears tried to break this bull and the second week in a row they failed to get the job done. Dips in the first half of the week bounced decisively in the second half. And here we stand, within 2% of all-time highs following two weeks of robust selling. As I often write, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up.

That said, there are no guarantees the second bounce is the end of this volatility and we could easily experience another test of 4k support next week. But if the first two attempts couldn’t close the deal, odds don’t look good for a third attempt. (Often the 3rd bounce is the charm!)

As has been the case all along, keep holding for higher prices, pulling the plug at our stops, and being ready to jump back in when the dip proves to be yet another false alarm. While trading through these whipsaws is inconvenient, it sure beats holding blindly through a much bigger correction. While the next dip will most likely bounce like all of the others that came before it, there are no guarantees and I certainly don’t feel like betting my trading account on it.

And in fact, I’d rather be wrong and see the index fall significantly further. The lower this goes now, the more money I make buying the next bounce.

I normally like to mix up these individual analysis pieces and spread them across different stocks, but Bitcoin is just too juicy to ignore. Thursday’s bounce above $40k support failed and this is back in the mid-$30k’s. If BTC cannot get back above $40k soon, we could very easily see prints that start with a $2#,###.

As I’ve been writing all along, with something this volatile, we need to have a stop and we need to stick to it. $60k was a sensible level to lock in profits. So was $50k and more recently $40k. And now there is a good chance people will be kicking themselves for not selling at $30k.

I’m not giving up on Bitcoin, but this has a nasty habit of falling 80% and that means this might not bottom until $12k! While this also has a habit of bouncing back, don’t forget last major selloff took three years to get back to the old highs. Just think about that when deciding if you want to hold through the dip.

Even the most bullish of bulls can see the value of selling $60k and buying back in at $12k.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

May 20

Why savvy traders are buying this bounce, plus the simplest trade for Bitcoin.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday was a good session for the S&P 500 as it extended Wednesday’s rebound off of recent lows.

So what is this, a bull market breaking down or a rally getting ready to make new highs? Depending on the hour, you are likely to find widely differing opinions.

As I’ve been saying for a while, until given a compelling reason to change our outlook, we continue giving this bull market the benefit of the doubt. This bull market started in March 2020 and every wobble since then has been a false alarm. While the cynic will claim the end is coming (and he will be right…eventually), this rally bounced more than a dozen times and is up nearly 100% from the Covid lows. Anyone who pulled the plug early has missed out on a lot of easy money.

That said, I’m never one to blindly hold “no matter what”. I’m in the market when it is going up and I step to the side when it slips under my trailing stops. When the dip turns out to be a false alarm, I get back in and do it all over again.

Will this week’s rebound stick? Maybe. Or maybe it fizzles and retests recent lows. Either way, I’m ready for what comes next. I bought back in yesterday and by acting early, I am already lifting my stops up to my reentry points. Few things are better than free trades.

I still like this bull market, but if this week’s bounce fizzles, I will get out at my stops and try again next week. No harm, no foul.

Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture. Buy the bounce above $40k and short the break underneath it. As much as people want to debate the fundamentals, this is nothing more than a sentiment trade and either prices bounce or they don’t. Plan your next trade accordingly.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket

Category Archives for "Free Content"

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this:

Share this: