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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 popped 2.4% in the biggest up-day since last summer. There wasn’t a clear headline driving Monday’s flurry of buying. Instead, this was a sharp snap-back from last week’s reflexive herd selling that got too carried away.
As I wrote last week, 3,800 was the tipping point. Either we fall over the edge or we bounce decisively off of support. Given the elevated volatility, there really wasn’t anything in between. And fortunately for the bulls, we got that decisive rebound off of support.
Like many people last week, I believe rising interest rates are what is going to kill this bull market. I just don’t think this is that time. Despite everyone trying to call a top, bull markets don’t die with the flip of a switch. Topping in a process that takes months.
We are only days removed from the last record high. If there is one thing we know about weak markets, they don’t keep setting new record highs. Until we see a clear pattern of lower-highs, assume this bull market is very much alive and well.
This bull market will die like all of the others that came before it. But this is not that time.
(Note: The one thing that would make me reconsider all of this above is if the index retreats back to 3,800 over the next few days. If this bounce is the real deal, it shouldn’t look back. If prices retest support so soon after the bounce, the selling isn’t over.)
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By Jani Ziedins | Weekly Analysis
Free Weekly Analysis:
It’s been a rocky couple of weeks for the S&P 500. Rather than bounce back from last week’s string of down days, we added to them. This week’s 2.4% loss was the largest since the final week of January and the second-biggest since November’s election.
As bad as that sounds, these periodic pullbacks keep turning into bullish higher-lows. At this point, the index remains above a trendline stretching back to just after the Covid lows. This pullback needs to keep going if it is going to do any meaningful technical damage.
That said, everything could change next week if the selling resumes. But until that happens, this isn’t anything more than a routine and healthy step-back on our way higher. Two-steps forward, one-step back. Rinse and repeat.
This leaves the market at a key tipping point. If this dip is truly like every other step-back over the last several quarters, the bounce is just around the corner. Rebound back to the highs and nothing has changed. Extend the selloff and we are entering uncharted territory.
Investors have become fixated on rising 10-year Treasury yields. Is this finally the start of something new and we should be concerned? Maybe. But this bull market ignored a once-in-a-hundred-year global health pandemic, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if it shrugs off a jump in interest rates from 0.5% to the still absurdly low 1.5%.
Is the bull market dying? No, probably not. But we will learn a lot about the market’s intention next week when either the index bounces or it continues lower.
As for a trading strategy, it is pretty straightforward. The market is buyable above 3,800 and sellable under this level. It doesn’t get any more complicated than that.
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
Volatility exploded this week as the S&P 500’s last three trading sessions produced some of the largest intraday swings of the year.
The biggest wild card continues to be 10-year Treasury yields, surging from 0.5% last autumn to 1.5% today. While 1.5% is trivially small by historical standards and investors are not afraid of these 1.5% rates, they are afraid this surge will turn into 3% or even 5% over the next several months.
Remember, the investors don’t price stocks based on where we are today, but what they think we will be in six to twelve months.
Stocks are stupid expensive by conventional measures (forward P/Es, etc). But these valuations are actually reasonable given these historically low interest rates. That’s because the lower interest rates are, the more valuable future cash flows become.
The problem is one percent interest rates justify really high stock valuations. Four percent interest rates do not. And that’s the million-dollar question, where are interest rates headed?
With all of this money printing supporting the Covid economy, most people assume inflation and higher rates are inevitable. But you know what? They said the same thing after the Fed pumped the economy full of cash following the housing bubble and 2008 financial crisis. Quite a few “forward-thinking” hedge funds lost a ton of money a decade ago when they bet on higher inflation and ended up being wrong.
Now I will count myself as one of the people concerned about inflation and higher interest rates. As I described, these crazy high stock valuations are built on a foundation of low interest rates. Take that away and the whole thing comes crashing down.
I have little doubt higher interest rates are what will kill this bull market. The problem is I don’t know when it will happen. As I’ve written previously, these rallies go so much further and last way longer than anyone thinks possible. While we might already know how this ends, the demise is still probably a few innings away.
The one thing we know for sure is dying markets do not keep making new highs. If the S&P 500 returns to the highs over the next few days, all of this talk of the end is premature. If prices retreat under recent lows, then we have to take this more seriously.
The great thing about being independent investors and traders is we don’t have to predict the future. We are small enough that we can react to these developments in real-time as the future unfolds in front of us. If the market bounces tomorrow, buy and hold. If prices retreat under the lows, sell and even consider going short.
It doesn’t get any more straightforward than that. Volatility is picking up, meaning the next move will be large. We just need the market to pick a direction and then hang on.
My intuition and educated guess is higher, but I have no problem being wrong. (In fact, I’ll make more money if stocks decline sharply, so here’s to hoping I’m wrong!)
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 finally bounced in a meaningful way on Wednesday, resulting in the best trading session since early February. As bad as things felt following five consecutive losses, Wednesday’s gain puts the index within 0.2% of yet another record close. Funny how that works.
But this shouldn’t surprise anyone. As I wrote Tuesday:
The index is in good shape and at this point, fresh highs are pretty much a foregone conclusion. But that’s not what I want to write about tonight. There are so many exciting things going on in the FAANG highfliers, TSLA, and Bitcoin. But just when everyone stopped talking about GME, it came roaring back with a 100% gain and it surged another 200% in the after-hours session.
Can you believe someone paid nearly $200 for GME when the stock was selling for $48 just a couple of hours earlier??? As Forest Gump famously said, “Stupid is as stupid does.”
Haven’t we already seen this movie? But people never learn and this was entirely predictable. Back in early February, I wrote:
For weeks late-to-the-party GME buyers were praying for a chance to get out and recover some of their foolish losses. Well, thank your lucky stars because here is your chance.
Unfortunately for many, those feelings of regret will quickly be overcome by a second wave of greed and they will start dreaming of that $1k payday again.
There is nothing wrong with riding this wave higher as a quick trade to make a buck. But anyone thinking this is going to the “moon” has no idea how the market works.
Keep holding for higher prices but use a trailing stop and get out when this turns south because this stock won’t get back above $100 after this dead cat bounce fails.
“Fool me twice, shame on me.”
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 slipped for the fifth consecutive session and Monday’s losses were the worst yet. That said, this -0.8% “tumble” still leaves us little more than 1% from all-time highs. (Hardly panic material.)
As boring as the market has been the last few weeks, things have started getting a little spicier:
Last week I said this recent bout of selling wasn’t meaningful and Monday’s loss doesn’t change my mind.
While this selloff could be the real deal, odds are strongly against it. If something bounces two dozen times and it reverses only once, what is the most likely outcome of any individual occurrence? As obvious as the answer seems, every time prices slip from the highs, people reflexively start calling it a top.
While these naysayers will eventually be right, like a broken clock, they will be wrong dozens of times first. Is this the one time they get it right? Probably not.
That said, I’m not willing to ride this one all the way down if I’m wrong. I have clearly defined stops in the mid 3,800s and if the market falls to those levels, I’m out, no questions asked.
And you know what, I actually hope I’m wrong because a larger pullback would create far more profit opportunities than if this is just another minor dip and bounce.
I’m holding for higher prices until my stops are hit. And if I’m wrong, even better!
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