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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
The S&P500 closed above 2,300 for the first time ever on Thursday. We started consolidating under this psychologically significant level in early December, but it’s taken us this long to find the demand necessary to push on through. While it’s been a long time coming, it shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone who has been reading this blog. As I said many times over the last several weeks, the longer we hold near the highs, the more likely it is we will break through. We tumble from unsustainable levels quickly and holding on this long told us the market wanted to go higher, not lower.
But now that we’re up here, the bigger question is what happens next. While I think the path of least resistance remains higher as we squeeze shorts and suck in breakout buyers, tepid demand continues to be a real obstacle for this bull market. No doubt we will get some recent profit-takers to jump back in when 2,300 resistance turns into support, but so much optimism has been priced into since Trump’s election that it is getting harder and harder for this market to exceed expectations. Even though momentum will keep us drifting higher over the near-term, this is a better place to be taking profits than initiating new longs. While cashing in over the next few days is a prudent move to make, going outright short creates a far different risk/reward. Even though this strength leaves us vulnerable to the unexpected, we need that unexpected event to happen first. It is far too dangerous to short for no other reason than “we are due for a pullback”. Just ask all the shorts that were crawling over each other to get out this afternoon when we smashed through their stop-loss levels.
There isn’t a lot more to add since this is such a benign market. Emotion is practically nonexistent, meaning there is not a lot of force behind these moves in either direction. Last week we saw a modest retreat from the highs the first time we tried to break 2,300. Now that we finally broke through, expect an equally lethargic breakout. Momentum is higher, but this thing is moving so slow we don’t need to chase it. If you are not already in the market, wait for a better trade. The hardest thing for a trader to do is not trade, but often that is the best move to make.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
The S&P500 flirted with 2,300 resistance Tuesday, but yet again failed to break through. Is this a healthy and normal pause before the next leg higher? Or are we running out of steam and on the verge of rolling over? That’s the question on everyone’s mind.
2,280 has been a ceiling for this market since early December. We broke through briefly at the end of January but failed to hold those gains. This is our second assult on 2,300 and thus far things don’t look any different. But the thing to remember is we tumble from unsustainable levels quickly. We have been hanging out near these record highs for two-months. If this market was fragile and vulnerable, we would have crashed a long time ago. There have been more than enough reasons for this market to selloff, yet every time it refuses the invitation and we run out of sellers. Say what you will about the fundamentals of this market, but when confident owners don’t sell bearish headlines and weak price-action, supply stays tight and prices remain resilient. If the sellers failed to materialize over the last eight-weeks, why would they show up now and sell far more benign headlines and price-action? That is the question every bear needs to answer. If it didn’t happen then, why is it going to happen now?
That said, tepid demand has been a major headwind for the market at the upper end of the trading range. While confident owners are keeping supply tight, those with cash prove just as stubborn when it comes chasing record highs. When no one is selling and no one is buying, we trade sideways. We know this stalemate cannot last forever, and at least for the near-term, the path of least resistance is higher. What happens after we breakout is less clear, but unless something unexpected happens, don’t bet against this market just yet.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Analysis:
After spending most of Tuesday in the red, a recovery in the final hour of trade pushed the S&P500 most of the way back to break even. Monday’s weakness killed last week’s breakout and pushed us back into December’s trading range, but Tuesday’s resilience tells us most owners are not abandoning their stocks yet. Volume was the highest of the year, no doubt boosted in large part by end-of-month adjustments.
The headline of the week has been Trump’s executive order to stop admitting immigrants from seven Middle East nations. As far as corporate earnings go, the financial impact is negligible but that that hasn’t stopped traders from selling the news. In large part they are not reacting to this story, but being reminded Trump’s unorthodox leadership style cuts both ways. Stocks enjoyed a strong close to 2016 on hopes of reduced regulation, tax cuts, and corporate tax reform. Largely forgotten in the cheer has been Trump’s less business friendly stances. Trump’s moves over the weekend reminded traders that his presidency won’t be all sugar and cream.
Demand near record highs has been an issue since early December and it is not a surprise to see stocks retreat from last week’s breakout. While confident owners continue holding for higher prices, few with cash are willing to chase the market to record levels. This standoff between bulls and bears has kept us rangebound for nearly two-months and at this point it doesn’t look like that is changing anytime soon. As long as we struggle to find new buyers at the upper end of the range and owners refuse to sell the lower end, we are not going anywhere fast.
At this point I’m more cautious than optimistic. The 200-point rebound from November’s lows priced in a lot of good news our leaders and the economy need to deliver. Hit these targets and the market will yawn because it already priced in most of those gains. But run into a snag and we tumble into all the clear air underneath us. Momentum is higher and all else being equal, we should expect the slow drift to continue. But the reward from owning a slow drift is small, especially when compared to the risk if something unexpected sends a chill through the market. Small gains and large risks create a poor risk/reward. That said, it is a tad too early to short this market because we will continue creeping higher until we have a reason to tumble. This is not a bad place to take profits, but wait for that worrying headline before attempting a short. Only options sellers and nimble day-traders make money in flat markets, the rest of us are not getting paid to own risk and are best served waiting for a better trade.
Jani
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