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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
On Thursday the S&P500 extended Wednesday’s breakout above the 50dma. Despite escalating tension with North Korea and a category four hurricane, stocks continue trading near all-time highs. As I’ve been saying all month, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. That is exactly what is happening here.
Even though the news flow has been overwhelmingly bearish this month, stocks have barely budged from record highs. At our deepest and darkest period in August, we were down a whole 2% from all-time highs. Bears were giddy with excitement and kept telling us to wait for it. But the crash never happened. That shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who reads this blog. Market crashes are breathtakingly fast, not drawn out affairs. If the initial headlines couldn’t knock us down, the follow-up headlines were even less likely to do so.
It all comes down to simply supply and demand. The first North Korea headlines scared off the traders who fear such a thing. The next time those same headlines popped up, there were fewer people left to sell the recurrence. Instead, these fearful sellers were replaced by confident dip buyers who demonstrated a willingness to hold the risk. This churn in ownership is how news gets priced in and why it stops mattering.
Tuesday North Korea launched a missile over Japan, but paradoxically that was our buy signal. Everyone who feared those headlines had already sold and the market was setting up to bounce on tight supply. We capitulated early Tuesday and have been racing up ever since.
Nervous and fearful traders were wary of what they claimed was weak market. But they got it exactly wrong. Withstanding the relentless barrage of negative headlines confirmed how strong this market was. If we were vulnerable to a collapse, any one of those headlines would have sent us tumbling. The fact we stood up so well tells us this is a strong market, not a weak one.
In all my years of trading, one of the most reliable trading signals comes from identifying what the market is NOT doing. Despite all the headline uncertainty, this market was not tumbling. That told me there was good support behind these prices and the path of least resistance remained higher. That told us the latest drop in price was still a dip buying opportunity.
The last few weeks of selling purged many weak owners from the market and replaced them with confident dip buyers. This firmed up support and this bull is even stronger than it was last month. This base building process is setting the stage for the market’s next move to all-time highs. The path of least resistance remains higher and 2,500 is easily within reach. From there we need big money to start buying to keep the rally alive.
The market is up around 10% for the year. While this has been slow this summer, I don’t expect that to last. Volatility is already picking up and that will continue through the fall. While many bears warn about downside volatility, I actually think bigger risk is upside volatility. Many cynical money managers are underweight this market and they have been patiently waiting for a pullback. The latest 2% dip is about as good as it is going to get. When they realize this market is far more resilient than they thought, they will be forced to chase prices higher or else risk explaining to their investors why they lagged behind the indexes so badly this year. That desperate chase for performance is going to fuel a strong rally into year-end.
While that is the most likely outcome, there is a chance Trump and Republicans fumble tax reform and the market uses that as an excuse to take profits. This could lead to a wave of reactionary selling that drops us near breakeven for the year. That said, this is a low probability event because the fumbling, bumbling Republicans cannot get anything done and expectations for tax reform are already quite low. I doubt many people will be surprised if Trump and the GOP get nothing accomplished this year. That lack of surprise means we won’t see much of a selloff. If we were vulnerable to high expectations, we would have seen a much stronger reaction when the Senate failed to pass healthcare reform.
This is an incredibly strong market that is ignoring every excuse to sell off. Keep doing what is working. Stick with your buy-and-hold positions and buy every dip until further notice.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
Tuesday was a wild ride for the S&P500. We gapped lower at the open following North Korea’s provocative firing of a missile over Japan. But rather than devolve into another spiral of relentless selling, we bounced off the early lows and actually finished the day with small gains. It was a shocking reversal for everyone who automatically assumed the bottom falling out of this market.
I’ve been saying for weeks, the path of least resistance is higher and today’s resilience confirms that outlook. Headlines have been overwhelmingly negative in recent weeks. An escalating war of words between Trump and North Korea. A revolving door of senior advisors in the Trump administration. An exchange of sharp barbs between Trump and senior Republican leadership following the Charlottesville tragedy. The worst natural disaster to hit U.S. in over a decade. And now North Korea moving beyond words by launching a missile over Japan. If anyone knew the barrage of negative headlines that was coming, they would certainly expect the market to be dramatically lower. Yet here we stand, less than 2% from all-time highs. What gives?
Most traders focus on what the market is doing. But I find it far more insightful to see what the market is not doing. That is a far more predictive indicator of what the market’s next move because it exposes the crowd’s false assumptions. In this case, that we are vulnerable to a collapse. If we were going to crash, it would have happened weeks ago. It doesn’t take much to trigger an avalanche of selling when the market is fragile. Yet the last few weeks we withstood headline after headline. We slipped a bit and nervousness definitely spread through the crowd, but prices barely budged. For anyone that was paying attention, that resilience told us we were standing on solid ground. And each day of selling further firmed up support as nervous owners were replaced by confident dip buyers. Rather than get weaker, this market has been getting stronger. And today’s flaunting of the North Korean missile story confirms that analysis.
This reversal is as bullish as it gets. While I’d love to see us race ahead, sideways churn is just as constructive. The market isn’t following anyone’s timeline, but trust me, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. Trade against this strength at your peril.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
On Thursday the S&P500 lost ground for the fourth-time out of the last six-trading sessions. Fear over an armed conflict with North Korea morphed into fretting over debt ceilings and bond defaults. These latest issues were brought to the forefront two-nights ago when Trump threatened to shut down the government if Congress doesn’t fund his wall.
These relentless waves of bearish headlines over the last few weeks has weighed on market sentiment. AAII’s latest investor survey shows a 6-point loss in bullishness and a mirror image increase in bearishness. The bull-bear spread is nearly 20-points under its historical average as a large number of investors are preparing for the worst.
It is easy to see why pessimism jumped in recent weeks. Tension with North Korea, key members of the Trump administration forced out, barbs exchanged between Congressional leaders and the White House, and now swelling anxiety over a government shutdown and default on U.S. debt.
Without a doubt this market should be in freefall. Yet eight-days of losses over the last three-weeks only managed to knock us down 1.6% from all-time highs. That’s hardly the panic driven selling you would expect given the headlines. What gives?
Bears claim we are on the verge of imploding. They figure it is only a matter of time before this complacent market finally wakes up. But here’s the rub, everyone already knows about these issues because it is front page news. If a group of investors is blissfully unaware, then they have their head in the sand and are unlikely to figure it out any time soon. Not only that, the dramatic swing in investor sentiment tells us these headlines are definitely affecting people’s mood and outlook.
Is there any truth to the bear’s argument that the collapse is coming, even if it is a little delayed? In all my years I’ve never seen the market ponder headlines for several days before finally deciding to plunge. It would be great if the market gave us that much time to analyze the facts and make a thoughtful and deliberate sale before crashing. Unfortunately that’s not the way this works. Market crashes are frighteningly fast and if you stop to think about what is happening, you will get run over. Market crashes are most definitely sell first, ask questions later events.
The simple truth is if the market cared about this crop of headlines, we would have crashed by now. Without a doubt this market is complacent, but the thing conventional wisdom fails to tell us is complacent markets last far longer than anyone thinks possible. This bull market will die at some point because all bull markets eventually die. But this market’s limited reaction to these waves of bearish headlines tells us this is not that time.
If anything the recent bout of negativity and string of down days is firming up support. Every nervous seller is being replaced by a confident dip buyer. This churn in ownership is strengthening this market and setting the stage for the next move higher. I am definitely not a raging bull and have a lot of concerns about this market. But I have been doing this long enough to know a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. Don’t fight what is working.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
On Tuesday the S&P500 bounced back from last week’s selloff. Volume was “suspiciously” light, but that was expected because the selloff also occurred on light volume. These recent moves are driven more by a lack of buying and selling, and not a surge in selling and buying. That tells us most traders lack conviction are more inclined to do nothing than rush in and out of the market. As I’ve been saying for months, confident owners are showing zero interest in selling any headlines. The same goes for those with cash who stubbornly refuse to chase record prices higher. And so the stalemate continues.
I saw a headline today that claimed we bounced today because traders felt like the prospects for tax reform were improving. Yeah, sure whatever. The thing to keep in mind is journalism majors are paid to come up with explanations for every market gyration whether it is real or not. Read the news so you understand what is going on, but don’t take it at face value.
What is the real reason we bounced? My free blog post last Thursday evening explained it before it even happened:
We could see another day or two of selling, but as long as owners remain confident, supply will dry up and prices will rebound like they have every other time this year. Without a doubt this bull market will die like all of the ones that came before it, but confident owners need a reason to change their outlook and “too high” ain’t it. We need something new and unexpected. Something that threatens corporate profits. I didn’t see anything like that in today’s news flow and is why most confident owners will brush off this dip like all the others that happened this year.
Quite simply we bounced because there was zero substance to last week’s selloff. Trump fumbling the Charlottesville situation doesn’t have an impact on corporate profits. Neither did the terrorist attacks in Spain. Last Thursday was little more than a day where nothing went right and demand evaporated. But none of the events that transpired last week have a lasting impact and is why so few owners changed their outlook. Those that believed in the market still believe in it and those that criticized it are still criticising it.
The shame about selloffs is most people manage to turn a great profit opportunity into a losing trade. Traders have been praying for a buyable dip for months. Yet the first one we get these people same people run away because they are afraid things will get worse.
The first thing to understand is all selloffs feel real. If they didn’t, no one would sell and we wouldn’t dip. There is no such thing as an easy trade and the present always feels uncertain and scary. Trades only look obvious months after the fact and with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
The second thing is a trend continues countless times, but it reverse only once. This market has been bouncing all year long. What were the odds that this time was the “real one”? Pretty darn low. But that doesn’t stop people from predicting the next collapse every time we slip five-points.
It takes confidence and conviction to make money in the market. We cannot be right every time, but it is important to keep your nerve when everyone else is losing theirs.
Most people are now wondering what comes next. I liked the way the market responded today and it appears like the path of least resistance remains higher. We’re not setting the world on fire with these rate of gains, but a market that refuses to do down will eventually go up.
The sharp selloffs over the last two-weeks helped clear a lot of dead weight from the market. Weak and nervous owners bailed out and sold to confident owners who were willing to buy the dip despite the bearish headlines and horrible price-action. Purging weak owners and replacing them with confident ones gives us a stronger foundation to stand on. This process is why double bottoms are such a reliable buying signals.
That said, triple bottoms are not a thing. If we stumble under Monday’s lows over the next few days, that tells us this weakness is chronic and we should expect further losses. Most likely this market is headed up to 2,500 over the next few weeks, but if we cannot hold 2,420 support, then we will tumble through 2,400 support. Trade accordingly.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Analysis:
Thursday was one of worst days for the S&P500 this year as we plunged 1.5%. There wasn’t a clear catalyst driving the selling. Instead it was a combination of Asian weakness, D.C. dysfunction, weaker than expected earnings, and terrorism in Europe. It was simply one of those days where nothing went right. Even this “half-full” market couldn’t find anything to be positive about.
Given the size of the selloff, volume was suspiciously light. The waterfall price-action gave the impression the market was overwhelmed by a giant wave of panic selling. But the below average volume tells us that’s not what happened. Today’s weakness was more about a lack of buying than fearful selling.
The above shouldn’t come as a surprise since confident owners have propped up the market up all year long. If confident owners were not scared out of their positions through all of this year’s countless bearish headlines, was today’s news any worse? Not really. And that’s why most owners continued to hold their stocks through today’s brutal selloff. Their confidence is aided by the fact most owners are having a great year and are still sitting on a pile of profits. To them this is just another bump on the way higher and nothing to worry about. That’s why despite the gruesome price-action, few owners sold and volume was uncannily light.
Instead the damage was primarily done by the lack of demand. This is not new and has been an issue all year. Every breakout fizzled because those with cash refused to chase prices higher. That forced us into this slow grind higher. Today’s dip was larger than most, but it isn’t unusual to see sideways churn before staging the next move higher.
I’ve been defending this market all year. Every dip has been a buying opportunity and I don’t feel any different this time. Many have criticized my analysis, but so far the market has proved me right dozens of times. Can this time be different? Might this be the end? Sure. But the thing to remember is while a trend continues countless times, it reverses only once. Which side do you think has the better odds?
We could see another day or two of selling, but as long as owners remain confident, supply will dry up and prices will rebound like they have every other time this year. Without a doubt this bull market will die like all of the ones that came before it, but confident owners need a reason to change their outlook and “too high” ain’t it. We need something new and unexpected. Something that threatens corporate profits. I didn’t see anything like that in today’s news flow and is why most confident owners will brush off this dip like all the others that happened this year.
Holding through a dip is not easy but this is a better time to be buying stocks than selling them. The best trades are the hardest ones to make. That means holding when you don’t want to hold and buying when you don’t want to buy. Maybe this time is different, but the odds are against it.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
The S&P500 traded flat Tuesday. While it would have been nice to extend Monday’s rebound, holding ground is still constructive. If traders remained nervous, another round of selling would have hit the market today as owners took advantage of this strength to lock-in profits. Instead most owners remain confident and choose to keep holding for higher prices.
Conventional wisdom tells us complacency is bad. What it fails to mention is periods of complacency last far longer than anyone expects. Confident owners don’t sell and that keeps supply tight. In a self-fulfilling prophecy, when confident owners don’t sell a dip, we stop dipping. Tight supply has propped up this market all year-long and it doesn’t look like last week’s headlines and volatility changed that.
Last week I told readers “North Korea still doesn’t matter and how to profit from it“. Those that listened are a little richer this week. I don’t have a crystal ball and I wasn’t predicting the future. There is no magic in this, it is simply a matter of using common sense. This was not the first time a war of words broke out with North Korea and it won’t be the last. But these things never go anywhere because neither side can afford to escalate it beyond words. And that is exactly what happened this time. Reactive traders who acted without thinking were simply giving money away to those who better understood the situation.
Something will eventually break this bull market. Every bull market eventually dies and this one will be no different. While it is okay to be cautious after eight years of strong gains, being bearish just because we’ve “gone too far” is a great way to give away money. Don’t fight what is working.
Confident owners keep supply tight and the only way this market will crack is by convincing these stubbornly confident owners to sell. So far Brexits, rate hikes, and a dysfunctional Congress haven’t spooked owners. Over the last several years, every time an owner got nervous and sold a dip, he came to regret it. After making that mistake one too many times, most owners have now swung to the other extreme and are not selling anything for any reason. And for the time being this supreme confidence is working. Markets don’t dip when no one sells bad news.
As a trader, I enjoyed last week’s bout of volatility and am hoping more is on the way this fall. While this calm has been nice for many investors, it would be foolish to expect this period of historically low volatility to last much longer. I expect a return to more normal levels later this fall when big money managers return from summer vacation and start positioning for year-end.
But thing to remember is volatility can occur in either direction. At this point nothing is convincing confident owners to sell and I doubt there is much that will change their mind. That means the likely outcome is we will see underperforming managers be forced to chase stocks higher into year-end. There is a smaller probability that further dysfunction in D.C. could finally get to this market when we don’t get the promised tax reform. But so far this market doesn’t seem to care about politics and is why I think this outcome is less likely than a chase higher into year-end.
The great thing about being an independent traders is our account size allow us to enter and exit full positions with the click of a mouse. That means we don’t need to know what will happen this fall and can instead wait for the market to tells us what it wants to do. Until then expect this slow creep higher to continue for a few more weeks. Markets that refuse to go lower will eventually go higher. Keep doing what is working and enjoy the ride
Jani
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