Jumping on thin ice.

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

End of Day Update:

On Tuesday the S&P500 rebounded decisively from Monday’s selloff and is again challenging 2,060 resistance. This was a welcome relief since five of the last seven-trading sessions ended near the bottom of the day’s trading range.

While the popular market truism is “it’s not how you start, but how you finish”, Tuesday’s rebound went against this popular convention. While it would be easy to feel bearish about the recent price-action, when taken in context, it is highly noteworthy that these five-attempted breakdowns failed to build momentum. It’s like jumping on a frozen pond. Never a good idea, but the risk of falling through the ice drops dramatically after the first few jumps. If you haven’t fallen in by the fifth jump, then chances are pretty good the ice beneath your feet is solid and more than enough to hold your weight. The same can be said about the stock market holding up after probing 2,040 support the last several days. If we were going to crash, it would have happened by now.

Even though I’ve been cautious the last couple of weeks because of how far we’ve come since the February lows, the market is proving incredibly resilient. This choppiness has chased off many of the weak owners and the remaining ownership base is stronger as a result. Since we haven’t fallen through the ice yet, that means the higher probability trade is sticking with the uptrend for the near-term.

While the next move is most likely higher, it is still open for debate how we get there. 2,060 has been acting as clear resistance the last couple of weeks. We could simply break through this level Wednesday and not look back. The other possibility is Wednesday we retreat back into the 2,040/2,060 trading range and retest the lower end of the range. The ideal buy-point is falling under 2,040 support but rebounding when confident owners keep supply tight.

Jani

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Is this time different?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

Tuesday the S&P500 stumbled into its biggest losses in nearly a month. Overseas weakness spread to our shores and this time dip-buyers were helpless to stem the tide of selling. While we are only a few points from recent highs, this dip felt different.

As we discussed last week, the move to a new quarter often brings a change in investor strategy. In March big money was caught off guard by the swift rebound from February’s lows and these managers were forced to buy back the stocks they sold earlier in the year. Their insatiable need to rebuild their portfolio pushed us higher all month. But now that the calendar’s rolled over and managers are given three-months of breathing room, there is less pressure to buy every dip. This vacuum of demand was fully evident Tuesday. We slipped and there was no one to catch us. This is why we finished at the lows.

While one data point doesn’t establish a new trend, it should be enough to give us pause. We rallied 15% in two-months. That’s a huge number by any measure and it would be foolish to expect this rate of gains to continue. Now that we moved into the second-quarter, will money managers continue buying with reckless abandon? Tuesday’s price-action suggests otherwise and we should prepare for a bumpier road ahead.

If we truly exhausted the supply of willing buyers, prices should continue slipping over coming days. The most obvious support level is 2,000. Fail that and the 50dma and 1,940 are the next logical levels to bounce at. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not predicting a crash and return to February’s lows. But a cooling off period is warranted given how far we’ve come. Two-steps forward, one-step back.

That said, if we bounce Wednesday and recover Monday’s close, dip-buying is alive and well. That means there is no vacuum of demand and the good times are still rolling. Selloffs are swift and if Tuesday’s weakness doesn’t spread, then this was just another dip on our way higher.

Jani

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Wait for it…….

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 had a good day, setting another 2016 closing high and putting us back in the green for the year. Quite a reversal of fortune from what most people expected in January. This is yet another example of why we should be skeptical of what most people know. That’s not to say the crowd is stupid, just that its opinion is already priced in and something else is more likely to happen, either better or worse. This time we were saved by less-bad than feared.

Things didn’t look so great this morning when we opened and the market slipped on Asian weakness and falling oil prices. But Janet Yellen came to the rescue by promising slower than previously forecast rate-hikes. That was enough to send stocks surging and the dollar tumbling. This brings up the other certainty of 2016: Euro/Dollar parity. So far that’s been a painful ride for all the hedge funds that thought this trade was easy money.

But this only tells us where we are, something everyone already knows. What we really want to know is where we are going next. Without a doubt this is far better time to be a bull than a bear. We are more than 200-points higher than February’s lows. Anyone who sold defensively and missed this rebound is left wondering what to do next. While I’d love to say we will surge another 200-points between now and June, markets don’t work that way. The easy money has been made and now the gains will be slower and harder. Given how far we’ve come, this is a far better place to be taking profits than adding new positions. While the temptation to chase is strong, even if we continue higher in the near-term, without a doubt we will retest these levels in coming weeks and months. Never forget markets move in waves and we are far closer to the top of this wave than the start of it. There is no need to chase because we will get another shot at these levels in the future and longer-viewed investors should hold off and wait for better prices. Shorter-horizon traders probably want to stick with the near-term momentum. Typically we sell off fairly quickly from overbought levels and now that we’ve been above the 200dma for two-weeks, the next few points are more likely to be higher than lower.

A big portion of the fuel propelling this strength comes from desperate money managers chasing this rebound into quarter’s end. Anyone who reactively sold January’s weakness is in a world of hurt now that the market turned green for the year. Smart money definitely isn’t looking so smart right now. They want to show their investors they didn’t miss the rebound and are buying stocks by the dump truck load. But all of this changes when the calendar rolls over on Friday. The artificial demand caused by quarterly window-dressing will evaporate and we will see if anyone is left to sustain this march higher.

The real tell will come early next week. Hold up after the artificial window-dressing demand fades, then there is real support under this market. Stumble and all of a sudden weeks of chasing turns into weeks of selling as the market takes a well deserved break. While I’d love to be able to tell you what will happen, recent price moves are too erratic and unreliable to be predictive. One day’s breakdown turns into the next day’s breakout. Anyone trading this market with a bias is getting chewed up by these head fakes. But rest assured, the next move is coming and the market will reveal its hand once Q2 gets underway. Trade well and all-time highs are next. Stumble and we won’t catch ourselves until 1,950 support.

Jani

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What Selloff?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 set another 2016 closing high Thursday as it continues to leave the January doldrums further and further in the rearview mirror. Oil broke through $40 for the first time in a while and the world feels a lot better than it did a few weeks ago. But to a contrarian, these good times are just as unnerving as the obscene pessimism we saw in mid-February. I trade against the crowd, not with it and right now this feels like too much of a good thing. It bears repeating that markets move in waves and just like January’s one-way selloff stalled and rebounded after it exhausted supply, this one-way rally will run out of demand any day now.

Wednesday the Fed told us to expect fewer rate-hikes this year than previously indicated. That reassurance was enough to fuel this two-day pop that pushed us through the 200dma and moved us to these 2016 highs. But the thing to remember is a big chunk of this buying came from bears covering their shorts and technical traders buying the breakout. Now that we’ve crossed virtually every technical level that people would use, we no longer have this autopilot buying to keep this move going. Instead we will have to convince thoughtful traders to start putting their money into the market. Given traders’ natural fear of heights, this 200+point run from February’s lows has a lot of nervous people sitting on their hands.

Last October we bounced more than 200-points from the lows in a massive relief rally, but we climaxed and stumbled into a nearly 100-point pullback right around the levels we currently find ourselves. While it is hard to sit out a of rally like this when fear of losses is replaced by fear of being left behind, resist the urge to chase. Risk is a function of height and currently these are the riskiest levels of the year. Even if stocks continue going higher, don’t worry about it too much since the inevitable pullback will at the very least retest 2,000 support, and more likely push us back into the mid-1,900s. This is a far better time to be taking profits than adding new positions, so be patient and wait for a better entry point. The more aggressive among us can look for this rally to climax and short a dip back under the 200dma as we transition from this half-full sentiment back to our half-empty obsession.

A notice for regular readers of this blog, I’m taking my family to Hawaii next week for Spring Break and will not be posting to the free blog while I am on vacation. I will continue following the market and premium subscribers will still receive their daily market analysis.

Jani

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A Long Ride to Nowhere

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

While the S&P500 finished Thursday unchanged, it was anything but a boring day. An impressive mid-morning, 16-point rally was gutted and crashed 35-points, pushing us deep into the red. But just when it looked like the bottom had fallen out, we rebounded 20-points and finished the day exactly where we started. For as much as the market moved, volume was surprisingly light and didn’t even reach average levels. While it was an impressive day, most people resisted the urge to trade these volatile swings.

This insanity was driven by the European Central Bank’s latest stimulus efforts. They initially surprised global traders with the size of their move, but then follow-up by underwhelming us with their commitment to future actions. Those contradictory statements lead this unhinged price-action.

What does this volatility mean for our next move? That’s the million-dollar question. Following February’s 200-point rebound we’ve been struggling with 2,000 resistance. We raced up to this level last week but have been unable to break through it ever since. Thursday was the 3rd time we’ve traded above 2,000, but so far we failed to hold those gains because buyers keep disappearing. Given how far and fast this market moved since the February lows, this pause is anything but a surprise. But it would be helpful if we knew if this was simply a pause before continuing higher, or hitting our head on resistance and tumbling back into the heart of 2016’s trading range.

The thing to remember about selloffs is they are shockingly fast. The two-weeks we’ve been struggling with 2,000 by contrast are moving in slow-motion. If we were going to crash, why hasn’t it happened yet? That’s a tough question bears need answer. But we cannot give bulls a free pass either. We had great employment last Friday, a huge surge in oil prices, and now additional stimulus from the ECB. Given these tailwinds, why can’t we break 2,000? Failing to rally on good news is often a signal to look out below.

This afternoon I would have given the edge to bears given the massive intraday selloff. But everything changed when we ran out of sellers and closed flat. As I said, selloffs are fast. No matter how well things are lining up for bears, we have to respect this price-action. If people don’t sell the headlines, they don’t matter. I’ve been expecting a routine pullback following this 200-point run, but given how stubborn owners are clutching onto their stocks, this sideways trade could be all we get. That said, the smaller the correction, the less upside we will see from a continuation. If we break 2,000 resistance Friday, expect the upside to be limited to a quick run above the 200dma before the necessary pullback happens. Given the limited upside, this is still a better place to be taking profits than adding new positions.

Jani

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As Expected

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 slipped 1% Tuesday, ending a streak of five-consecutive up days. Volume was average, but less than the elevated levels seen during the breakout above the 50dma. Oil gave up a big chunk of its Monday gains and was an excuse for equity traders to take profits following this nearly 200-point rebound from February’s lows.

It comes as no surprise the market’s gains slowed down after such a strong run. Big money managers hate chasing large jumps in price. Experience taught them these things inevitably cool off and they can get in at better prices if they are patient. In a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, big money’s reluctance to buy leads to a vacuum of demand and causes the very pull-back they are waiting for. Just like big money, we should also resist the temptation to chase. This is a far better place to be taking profits than adding new positions. If someone missed the move, chalk it up to a learning experience and wait patiently for the next trading opportunity. Better to miss the bus than get hit by it.

Last Thursday I told readers to watch for a rally that breaks 2,000 and then fizzles. So far that’s been exactly what happened. Friday’s strong employment pushed us through 2,000 resistance, but not long after demand dried up and we slipped from those midday highs. When the market fails to rally on good news, look out below. And if we needed confirmation, we got it Monday when oil popped 5% yet the S&P500 finished the day flat. Only a few weeks ago a move in oil like that would have lit a fire under equities. The lack of movement Monday tells us bulls are tapped out.

While one day of weakness doesn’t automatically make this the start of a bigger pullback, we will know real soon if it is. Selloffs develop quickly and if we are consolidating recent gains, expect a dip to at least the 50dma to develop over coming days. On the other hand, if prices firm up instead, expect the rebound to continue to at least the 200dma. If someone shorted a break of 2,000, the trade is working and you should continue holding until at least 1,950. But now that the weakness started, move your trailing stop down to 2,000 because if this is the real deal we shouldn’t retest that level.

Jani

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Buy the Fear and Sell the Cheer

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 continued its hot streak Thursday, closing in the green for the third consecutive day and rallying nearly 200-points over three-weeks. This leaves us just shy of 2,000 and well above the 50dma. Not bad for a market that had been written off for dead in early February. Just goes to show what the herd and experts on TV know.

In my February 11th blog post, I reminded readers that markets move in waves and that period of weakness represented a buying opportunity, not a place to sell defensively. Now that we find ourselves just shy of 2,000 resistance, I will remind everyone again that markets move in waves and this is a far better place to be taking profits than adding new positions. While seeing the market bounce this high brought relief, we cannot forget risk is a function of height and right now we are near the highest levels of the year. Rather than feel good about these gains, we should be growing paranoid.

Friday morning we get the monthly employment report. Maybe it will be better than expected. Maybe it will be worse. I have no idea and I won’t pretend to. What I do know is the recent rebound sucked up a big chunk of the available demand, meaning there are far fewer willing buyers prepared to jump in this market than there were two-weeks ago. No doubt momentum could keep this move alive a little longer, but it would be foolish to assume we could rally another 200-points over the next three-weeks. If this move is closer to ending than starting, we should be thinking more defensively than offensively. While I don’t know what employment will be, I do know it will be far harder to keep this rally going than it will be to stall and consolidate recent gains. Successful trading is not about predicting the future, but understanding probabilities.

The ideal short setup would be a price surge following a stronger than expected employment report that fizzles and stumbles into the red before the end of the day. Failing to add to recent gains on bullish news tells us demand is drying up. No doubt the talking heads will spin it as good-news-is-bad-news, but we know better. Things are a little too good right now and inevitably the pendulum will swing the other way in a few days. But rather than jump on the world is ending bandwagon, we will buy that dip and ride it back to the upper end of the trading range.

For a trade, short a rally that fizzles and falls back under 2,000 resistance. Most likely it will retest the 50dma and even 1,900 support before bouncing and giving us another dip buying opportunity. While things look less scary than they did a few weeks ago, not a whole lot has changed and we should expect this trading range to continue through the end of the quarter. Keep buying weakness and selling strength.

Jani

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Sell When We Don’t Want to Sell

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 broke through 1,940 resistance Monday, driven by hopes of an imminent OPEC production cut. But the good times were short-lived when the Saudis and Iran threw cold water on those expectations Tuesday. That sent us tumbling back to the 1,920s where we finished near the lows of the day on lighter than average volume.

During choppy periods like this, we are often our worst enemy. Almost all of us come to the market with a bullish or bearish bias. Either we think the economic dominos are already falling and it is only a matter of time before stocks wake up to this reality. Or all these headlines and fear mongering are nothing more than Chicken Little and stocks will rebound once people realize the sky isn’t falling. The problem with thinking with a bias is it causes us to get sucked into every breakout or breakdown that confirms our outlook. Slip to the lower end of the trading range and bears are greedily shorting with reckless abandon. On the other side, bulls are buying hand over fist every time we approach the upper end of this range. Unfortunately these have been the worst moves to make at the worst possible times because moments later prices have reversed sharply. Buying breakouts and selling breakdowns is a great strategy in trending markets, the problem is we are stuck in a range bound market and smart money is buying weakness and selling strength. While bulls and bears are duking it out on social media, the pragmatist is making money in the market.

Two-weeks ago owners were emotionally selling stocks at steep discounts near 1,800 because they were desperate to get out before things got even worse. I told readers of this blog that was the exact wrong move to make. Markets move in waves and it is a mistake to sell at the bottom of a wave. If they held that long, then they should continue holding and wait for the inevitable bounce. Now that we rallied 140-points, the previously fearful owners are now getting cocky and patting themselves on the back. But rather than gloat over their good fortune, they should recognize we are nearing the upper end of this range and this is a far better time to be selling defensively. Holding when we are scared and selling when we feel good is hard to do, but going against our emotions is often the best trade to make.

The reason stocks remain range bound is most traders are stuck on their bullish or bearish outlook and no headline or price move is going to dissuade them. Stubborn owners keep holding even when the headlines and price-action are dire. But no matter what headlines proclaim, if owners don’t sell, then we stop going down. That happened in January the first time we tested 1,800 support, and lo and behold the same thing happened when we retested 1,800 support two-weeks ago. Owners that didn’t want to sell in January also didn’t want to sell this time. While that kept a floor under prices, we are also bumping our heads on a ceiling near 1,940. This is where those with cash are no longer interested in chasing stocks given this economic uncertainty. In the same but opposite phenomena, when we run out of buyers, stocks stop going up.

Until one side is unequivocally proven right and the other wrong, expect this stubborn standoff of wills to continue through at least the end of the first quarter. Prices move when people change their mind and adjust their portfolio. Be on the lookout for that new development that persuades one side to give up and join the other. That is when we will finally break out of this sideways market.

As for a trade, 1,900 support will be a key test over coming days. Hold this level through early next week and it is building the foundation for a run to 2,000 resistance. Tumble through 1,900 over the next few days and expect another test of 1,800 support.

Jani

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Strategies for Trading this Rebound

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily

End of Day Update:

Thursday was a rest day for the S&P500 following three-days of powerful gains that recovered 100-points of the recent selloff. Given how far and fast we moved, it’s neither a surprise nor unhealthy to take a small step back. The question is if this is nothing more than a pause before continuing higher, or hitting our head on resistance before returning to 1,800.

The last few days have been painful for bears and no doubt a big chunk of the buying has been propelled by a short-squeeze. But short covering and dip-buying only represents a small sliver of the demand necessary to sustain a larger move higher. While this smaller group can kickoff a move, they don’t have the buying power to keep it going. For that we need big money. The thing about big money is it is far more conservative and hates chasing fast moves. These more experienced and patient investors wait for the dust to settle and prices to pullback before making their move. And in a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, their lack of buying actually causes the pullback and buying opportunity they are waiting for.

Long-time readers of this blog know markets move in waves and were expecting this pause near prior resistance. What is less clear is what happens next. There are three possibilities. We are off to the races again tomorrow. Unfortunately the higher and faster we move, the less sustainable the move becomes and we will like stall near 1,960 and the 50dma before crashing back to earth. The next possibility is a gentile pullback to 1,900 support over the next several days. These minor discounts and subsequently stability will be enough to convince big money it is safe to buy at these levels and their demand will in turn drive the next leg of the rebound. The last possibility is we slice through 1,900 support on our way back to the lows of the trading range. Stocks stumble from unsustainable levels fairly quickly and it won’t take long before we know if this is happening or not.

The biggest differentiator between these possibilities is time. The unsustainable climax surge higher will happen on Friday if it is going to happen at all. If the market wants to return to the lower end of the trading range, it will show its hand by Monday at the latest. On the other hand, if we can hold 1,900 support into Wednesday, then things are stable and present good entry for those that missed the first leg of the rebound.

Jani

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1,900: Now What?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 Daily

End of Day Update:

Tuesday the S&P500 continued its rebound from last Thursday’s lows and is now just shy of 1,900 resistance. Not a bad turn of events given how awful things looked last week. This strength came on the coattails of a bounce in oil prices due to a rumored OPEC meeting and prospective supply cuts. The meeting happened, but they only agreed to cap production levels, not cut supply as hoped. Failing to live up to expectations sent oil prices tumbling Tuesday, but amazingly enough, the S&P500 closed at the day’s highs despite oil’s reversal. This is highly noteworthy because it was one of the few days this year where oil finished at the lows but stocks managed to close at the highs. Are stocks finally breaking this unhealthy correlation to oil prices? One datapoint doesn’t create a trend, but it is certainly a good start.

In last Thursday’s free blog post I caught flack from hecklers for suggesting that was the wrong time to sell defensively. Luckily for me hecklers are the most bold just before a reversal. While I am in no way suggesting we are out of the woods, a person who resisted the urge to bail out last week was rewarded with a nearly 100-point rebound from the lows. If a person wanted to sell defensively, today was a far better opportunity to do it than at any point last week. Everyone knows markets move in waves, unfortunately most forget that in the heat of the moment.

While I wrote about a rebound to 1,900 last week, I sure didn’t expect it to happen over two-days. But that is the way the market works. Either it takes so long to make a move that it convinces us we are wrong before proving us right. Or it does it so quickly we barely have time to register what happened. Clearly this bounce off of Thursday’s lows falls into the latter camp.

It is nice to talk about what happened, but what everyone wants to know is what comes next. For those that cannot handle this volatility, selling proactively near 1,900 makes a lot more sense than reactively selling near 1,800 and isn’t a bad decision for anyone needing a timeout from this chaos. A few weeks ago I wrote about us falling into an 1,800 to 1,940 trading range and I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest this has changed. Even though we might continue higher in the near-term, this rebound will likely fizzle and almost without a doubt there will be another opportunity to get in near 1,900 in the future. Sideways markets are the worst for longer-term owners because they hold the risk of a larger decline but are not getting paid for it with an appreciating stock price. This isn’t a problem for the resolute buy-and-hold owner, but those with less conviction are at a greater risk of reacting poorly to the choppiness inside a trading range.

Those of us that have a little larger appetite for risk, Tuesday’s price action was encouraging. As I already mentioned, it was a significant development when oil finished at the day’s lows and equities at the highs. Historically oil prices and the broad equity market have a very weak correlation and at some point this unhealthy relationship will end. Could this be the start of that? While OPEC didn’t give us what many were hoping for, production caps are a good start. Much of the fear fueling this plunge in oil prices was producers ramping up volumes to offset their declining incomes. A break from this runaway ramp in supply is a good start. If oil stabilizes around $30, while not a healthy number, at least equities can price it in and move on. As I shared in a previous post, we have fallen far enough that we shouldn’t plan for a v-bottom and instead expect this sideways choppiness to persist through at least the end of the quarter. But for the nimble swing-trader this presents a trading opportunity. Buy weakness and sell strength until something new comes along.

Jani

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Your Next Move

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

Thursday was another rough day for the S&P500 as we were taken down by overnight weakness in Asia, Europe, and the oil market. There wasn’t anything new driving this global selloff and it seemed to be more of the same global growth fears that have been hanging over us since the start of the year.

Two-weeks ago everyone felt better when oil surged above $33 and stocks reclaimed 1,940. As relief spread across the market, it felt like the worst was behind us. Unfortunately that was nothing more than the calm before the next wave lower hit us. Here’s the thing, everyone knows market move in waves. Rationally we understand we should buy stocks when they are cheap and sell when they are expensive. But if we know better, why do most people buy when we go up and sell when we go down? That makes as much sense as telling your neighbor that you refuse to buy gas at $1.75 and will take public transit until prices return to $3.00. How stupid is that? Well that is exactly what most people do in the stock market. They greedily buy stocks when they are expensive and fearfully sell them when they are cheap. No wonder most people have a hard time making money in the market.

Looking at equity and oil prices on Thursday, are we at the upper end of a wave, or the lower end? Sure looks like the lower end to me. Armed with this knowledge and using the rational side of our brain, should we be selling or buying stocks on days like these? Of course some people will justify selling because they are getting out “before things get worse”. Well unfortunately I’m afraid I have some bad news for you, if you are down 15% things are already worse. That’s because we are closer to the end of this move than the start. Over the last 65-years we have only fallen 30% from the highs five-times. And it’s actually better than it seems because two of those times we only exceeded 30% losses for a handful of days before rebounding sharply. For all practical purposes only three-times in 65-years has a 15% loss been closer to the beginning than the end. That averages out to one time every 21.7 years. Not exactly a high probability event.

Sure we might fall another 5% from here, but if someone is already down 15% and we only have another 5% to fall, should they be selling defensively now, or just riding it out since they already came this far? The time to sell defensively is before these things get away from us, not after the damage has been done. January 4th when we were still above 2,000 I told my subscribers to get out because things didn’t look right. That is the proper way to sell defensively. Waiting until the pain gets too great is nothing more than trading emotionally and the best way to give away money.

Three-weeks ago I told readers of this free blog that it was the wrong time to sell because we were getting close to bouncing and a couple of days later that is exactly what happened. Then I warned readers that the rebound was bound to stall near 1,940 as we carved out a trading range that would take us into the second quarter. If a person wanted to sell defensively, that rebound was their best chance to get out. Now that we find ourselves at the lower end of the range, this is where we should be looking to buy the dip, not sell it. While we could fall a little further and undercut recent lows, there is nothing new to these global slowdown headlines and no reason for them to take us dramatically lower. Expect the market to bounce over the next few days and return to 1,900 over the next few weeks. If someone wants to get out, selling at the higher end of the trading range is a better time to do it.

Jani

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Get Ready for the Bounce

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 ended a turbulent day exactly where it started. But given the headlines and early losses, a flat close is actually a win. Japanese stocks were gutted 6%, oil plunged 5%, and Europe was down nearly 2%. In the face of these tremendous headwinds, our market held up amazingly well by not succumbing to the global panic. Unfortunately flat might not be good enough.

Typically oversold markets rebound with explosive force. While that bounce might arrive Wednesday, if it doesn’t, that means we have a little more downside remaining. Two-weeks ago I suggested we are on the verge of entering an 1,800ish-1,950ish trading range and so far that is exactly what has happened. We rebounded off the January lows when we ran out of fearful sellers and existing owners were no longer willing to discount their stocks any further. That put a floor under the market and helped stocks rebound to 1,940, but beyond that point those with cash were no longer willing to chase prices higher in the face of this looming uncertainty. The resulting lack of demand pushed us back to the lower end of the trading range. At least to this point, stock owners are once again showing a reluctance to sell at lower prices and is why we found support the last two days. This confidence is keeping a lid on supply and propping up prices. No matter what the global headlines say, when few are willing to sell, prices remain resilient.

While it is easy to say this is little more than a normal and routine trading range, it sure doesn’t that way. But the thing to remember is nothing ever feels routine in the market. By rule every move has to be dramatic. If it didn’t, no one would sell. And when no one sells, we don’t go down. Therefore every time we go down, it must feel real. This is circular logic, but it happens every, single, time. The only time a market looks easy is when we are reviewing a chart months after the fact. And to this point, I have little doubt that two-months from now it will seem painfully obvious what we should do. But without the benefit of hindsight, making a trading decision today is anything but easy.

If we don’t bounce Wednesday, that tells us we haven’t found the capitulation bottom. As I stated earlier, rebounds from oversold levels are decisive and meandering around this level for three-days is anything but decisive. The ideal capitulation bottom is a relentless intraday selloff that slices through January’s lows and breaches 1,800. But just when it looks like we are going over the waterfall, we run out of sellers and bounce. That will be our buy signal to buy and hold a return to the upper end of this trading range. But in this instance it is better to be a little late than a lot early. Wait for the bounce to ensure we are not in fact plunging off a gigantic waterfall.

Jani

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The Trading Range is Here

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 failed to hold Friday’s gains and we challenged 1,900 support Tuesday. But regular readers of this blog expected last week’s rebound and this week’s retrenchment. A week ago I told them to prepare for a 1,820ish to 1,940ish trading range to develop and to this point the market is acting like it should. January’s 10%+ pullback did a little too much damage to put in a v-bottom, meaning we should expect a sideways consolidation and trading range to develop in the near-term. While most of us come to the market with a bullish or bearish bias, we need to resist the temptation to overreact these swings. Instead of buying the breakout or selling the breakdown, anticipate these reversals and trade against them. Take profits when the crowd is rushing in and buy when they are giving away stocks at steep discounts.

Trading ranges develop when both sides are entrenched and unwilling to yield. If a stock owner didn’t sell last August’s China meltdown and this year’s oil collapse, what are the chances they will bailout due to a recycling of these same headlines? The is also true on the other side. Recent sellers abandoned the market because they are convinced things are only going to get worse. A modest bounce is unlikely to convince them to buy stocks with reckless abandon anytime soon. With such strong and opposing viewpoints, we settle into a trading range until something new shakes up the status quo.

Jani

Three Ways to Trade this Volatility

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

End of Day Update:

Choppiness in the S&P 500 continued Tuesday when we recovered most of Monday’s selloff, the day that erased most of Friday’s gains. Three-days of nearly equal and opposite moves, but the one constant through all of this has been the driver: oil.

Equity traders cannot make a move until they first see what oil did overnight. Then, and only then, can they decide if they should buy or sell stocks. This trading mentality lead to a nearly perfect 98% correlation between oil and equities since the start of the year. This is the tightest link in more than 25-years, far eclipsing previous periods of elevated correlation that only approached 80%. Clearly this an abnormal link that cannot last, but as long as equity traders think the only thing that matters is the price of oil, that is the card we have to play.

The most impressive thing about today’s 1.4% pop is it came on the heels of a Chinese stock market meltdown. Shanghai fell more than 6% Tuesday and their bear market rout is carving out new lows. Chinese weakness triggered our January meltdown, but it seems traders have moved on to obsessing over oil prices and are increasingly indifferent to Chinese stocks. But this divergence might be short-lived since China, oil, and S&P 500 futures are tanking in overnight trade. If this weakness persists, the fourth whipsaw will unwind the bulk of Tuesday’s gains.

But as I warned in my last few blog posts, we should expect and be prepared for this type of volatility. Corrections larger than 10% rarely result in v-bottoms that rebounds to recent highs. Instead we see choppy trade as dip-buyers, regretful owners, and over-confident bears fight for control. One day we are saved, the next day the world is ending. And so the cycle continues until the market has battered, bruised, and humiliated bears, bulls, and everyone in between.

In normal, trending markets buy-triggers and stop-losses work well, but these are clearly are not normal times. Trading predetermined levels is the quickest way to give away money in choppy basing patterns like this. If you set a stop-loss 20-points under the market, you pretty much guaranteed yourself a 20-point loss. That doesn’t make a lot of sense, so how do you trade this market?

The simple answer is you don’t. The safest approach is to wait for normalcy to return where traditional risk management techniques protect you instead of guarantee losses. The other approach requires an iron stomach as you buy the dip, watch the market move against you, and rather than get scared out, buy even more. Every dip in the history has bounced and this one will be no different. Buy when other people are fearful is easy to say, but far harder to do.

That being said, the market is most likely forming a trading range between 1,940 and 1,820. Baring brief excursions we should expect to trade inside this range through the remainder of the quarter. Earnings were the one thing that could have saved us, but so far it hasn’t worked out that way. On the other side, runaway selloffs happen over days, not weeks. It’s been a week since we bounced off 1,810 and at this point the panicked rush for the exits abated. While we will almost certainly retest those lows, the second time we approach a level is less scary than the first. The initial dip triggered a surge of automatic stop-losses and flushed out the weak, but all of that selling already behind us and second retracement will have a harder time building critical mass.

For the ambitious, trading against this range is a third possibility. But since we are near the middle of this range, the prudent move is to wait until we approach one extreme or the other before trading against it.

Jani

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Is the Bottom In?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

End of Day Update:

It’s been a dramatic couple of days. Wednesday the S&P500 cratered over 3.5% in midday trade. But just when things looked their worst, we bottomed and recovered a majority of those losses with a powerful, 50-point rebound into the close. Volume was staggering and the second highest level in several years. The only day when more shares traded hands was August’s 5% bloodbath, a day also noteworthy for forming the bottom of the Fall selloff.

Thursday morning we slipped into the red but the situation changed decisively when the ECB hinted more stimulus is on its way in March. Then a less bad than feared U.S. oil inventory report sent crude spiking 5%. Between the apparent capitulation volume on Wednesday, more easy money from Europe, and rebound in oil, have we put in a bottom?

While Wednesday’s massive selloff did a lot of damage, it also purged most of the weak supply between here and 1,810. If anyone had a stop-loss, it was triggered when we plunged well beyond August’s lows. If an owner could have been spooked out, they were spooked out. But for every person who went running for cover, their was a bold buyer willing to take advantage of these emotional discounts. Removing weak owners and replacing them with confident dip-buyers is a very constructive development. Since we cleared most of the stop-losses under 1,850, it will be far harder for another dip under this level to trigger a runaway selloff.

But before we get too excited and start buying with reckless abandon, this correction fell well past the point where a V-rebound to previous highs can save us. This 10% selloff pushed us back into correction territory for the second-time in six-months and nerves are frayed. That means we should expect this erratic trade to continue as we carve out a base. Similar whipsaws occurred during the September bottoming and we should plan for the same choppiness here. In the near-term that means selling strength and buying weakness as we settle into a multi-month trading range. Be prepared for a retest of Wednesday’s lows at some point and expect regretful owners to flood the market with supply everytime we try to rally above 1,900. While it is tempting to trade our bullish or bearish bias every time the market feigns a breakout or breakdown, the best money over the next couple of months will come from trading against these moves.

Jani

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What Does History Tell Us?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 opened with strong gains Tuesday morning following overnight stability in China, Europe, and the oil markets. But the comfort of a rebound was short-lived as we slid more than 30-points from the early highs. Only a late surge prevented us from closing deep in the red.

While a lot that could be said about Tuesday’s price-action, it has already been superseded by plunging S&P500 futures in Asia’s Wednesday morning trade. We don’t have to look far to find the usual suspect; oil slipped another 2.5% and is now under $28 for February delivery.

Counting this overnight weakness, we find ourselves down nearly 14% from last year’s highs. While this feels terrifying, where does this rate historically? Over the last 65-years the S&P500 has fallen more than 10% twenty-times, or about once every three-years. Losses of more than 15% occurred eleven-times, meaning nearly half of all 10% selloffs never made it past 15%. But if we pass 15%, things don’t look as rosy because nine-times we shot straight through 20%.

What does this historical data tell us? That selloffs between 10% and 15% tend to bounce while those that exceed 15% tend to keep going. While at first this phenomena seems perplexing, it actually makes sense when we look at the makeup of market participants.

We can segment stock owners into two groups, those that follow the market closely and those that don’t. Sentiment measures that include AAII, Stocktwits, option buyers and sellers, newsletter writers, and all the other popularly quoted sources tell us the opinions of active participants. These people tend to trade more frequently and drive daily market moves. A 10% selloff will push the sentiment of the active owners into the cellar where more often than not capitulation selling results in a rebound. But occasionally the panic and fear mongering achieves such intensity that Wall Street’s dirty laundry reaches Main Street. Losses above 15% is when we start waking up a whole new segment of owners and this larger supply allows the oversold condition to intensify. Currently we find ourselves just above this inflection point. Drop a few more percent and we risk Main Street joining in this circle-jerk selloff.

Does this mean current owners should get out now while they still have a chance? Not necessarily. It all depends on timeframe. Nimble day-traders and swing-traders who are good at spotting capitulation can profit from near-term weakness and the inevitable rebound, but most everyone else should be thinking about buying this dip, not selling it. The other thing that history tells us is only three of the nine 20%+ selloffs were under 20% for more than a few weeks or months. While we sliced through 20%, we bounced back nearly as quickly six out of the nine-times. The odds are clearly more in favor of buying these discounts than selling them.

But what about those other three-times? I suppose each of us must decide of this oil weakness is a one-in-twenty selloff that completely trashes our financial system. We saw prolonged losses from the 1970’s stagflation and oil embargo. Then there was the grossly overheated tech bubble that came crashing down. And lastly the housing bubble where the most valuable asset people owned plunged in value. If you think a slowing China and falling oil prices ranks up there with the worst financial calamities of the last 65-years, then you should be selling. But if you have a less fatalistic view of the world and our economy, then this is just another buyable dip on our way higher.

While it is never easy to hold through volatility, the time to sell was when the first cracks started forming, not now that we are approaching a capitulation. I told my subscribers on January 4th that the price-action was deteriorating and I moved to cash. Now a couple of weeks later I’m on the verge of buying this weakness. If people want to sell me stock at a steep discount, I’m more than happy to oblige them. Their loss is my gain.

Jani

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How to Trade This Weakness

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

End of Day Update:

Thursday was a good day for the S&P500 as it recovered a big chunk of Wednesday’s bloodbath. While we are still struggling to make headway, this was the third up-day out of the last four. How you interpret this price-action largely depends on your biases, but it is a notable change from last week’s relentless selling. This also marks the seventh consecutive day of above average volume. Thursday’s trade reached the highest levels since December’s options expiration and September’s option expiration before that. Clearly a lot of people were paying attention and trading this volatile session.

The weekly AAII sentiment survey revealed optimism is at the lowest levels in over a decade while pessimism reached multi-year highs. In this historically bullish survey, bears outnumber bulls by whopping 250%. Anyone claiming the market is overly bullish is delusional with confirmation bias because they clearly don’t see everyone running around with their hair on fire. While we might not be at the bottom yet, this dramatic swing in sentiment and huge volume means we are getting close. The last time we saw this much volume was back when August’s selloff was bottoming.

The only thing moving this market is the price of oil. Does this make sense? No, but this is how the crowd is thinking and thus the only thing that matters. But with each passing day and tic lower, we are shedding owners who fear falling oil and replacing them with buyers who don’t mind cheap oil. Maybe these calm buyers realize oil production represents less than 1% of U.S. GDP. Maybe they are experienced investors who know these stories always come and go. Remember the Bird Flu pandemic? No? What about the Fiscal Cliff? Sequester? Taper? US debt downgrade? This tells you just how big of a deal most of these things turn out to be.

But oil isn’t the only thing scaring investors. We have a strong dollar and slowing global growth that will allegedly crush our exporters. But the thing is all our exports together only represent 13% of GDP and only 5% of that demand comes from Asia. While knocking off a few percentage points won’t help our sluggish recovery, it certainly won’t cripple our largely self-centered, service and consumption based economy either.

But the market never lets common sense get in the way of a good stampede for the exits. There are two ways to trade the stock market. Buy at a premium and sell at a discount. Or buy the discounts and sell them later at a premium. Just like any successful business, buy at wholesale and sell at retail. Just think about that when you are tempted to join the emotional sellers. There has never been a dip in the history of the stock market that wasn’t buyable and this one is no different.

Jani

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Running Out of Sellers

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500

End of Day Update:

The S&P500 managed to finish in the green for the second day following last week’s brutal kickoff to 2016. In just over a week we erased 150-points as a struggling China and plunging oil reignited fears of a global slowdown and financial contagion. Similar headlines triggered August’s 10% correction and the sequel proved nearly as damaging. The question on everyone’s mind is if this is the capitulation bottom or just a dead-cat bounce on our way lower.

Oil briefly slipped under $30 Tuesday for the first time in over a decade. Only a few months ago predictions of $30 oil were met with skepticism and ridicule, but the market has a nasty habit of pushing us to the “obscene number” before the crowd capitulates. Thirty-dollars was that obscene number and we finally tagged it following a nearly two-week free fall. But just when it seems like there is no end in sight, we run out of sellers and bounce. That happen today when the market rebounded almost immediately after flirting with the high $20s. This modest rebound in oil was enough to lift the S&P500 off the intraday lows, allowing us to finish just under 1,940. And the party is continuing in the overnight futures markets with the S&P500 up another 15-points in Asia.

At the very least we should expect a few day bounce as the market recovers from a near-term oversold condition. Expect this scramble to push us back to 2,000 resistance. From there we will see if short-squeezing and chasing transitions to real buying. Or if we stall continue the global slowdown selloff. The key to surviving this market is trading proactively. Take profits often and don’t get married to a position because it will likely reverse days later. Be pragmatic, not dogmatic.

Jani

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Focus on What Matters

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500

End of Day Update:

It’s been a brutal week for the S&P500 as we experienced one of the worst starts to a year in market history. We’ve fallen 140-points from last week’s highs as traders continue to be terrorized by Chinese uncertainty. We’re down five out of the last six sessions while Chinese regulators have suspended trade twice this week due to selloffs exceeding 7%. Given this turmoil it is no surprise to see AAII’s sentiment survey approach historic levels of pessimism. If we take trading cues from the crowd, clearly this is the best time to panic and dump stocks at steep discounts before the selloff gets worse. But since I make money trading against the crowd, I am looking at this move in a far different way.

We’ve only closed under 1,950 a handful of times since 2014. If we view risk as a function of height, buying and owning stocks here is one of the least risky times to be invested in over a year. While it certainly doesn’t feel safe, I’m sure most would agree buying and holding stocks today is a far better idea than buying and holding them last week. Everyone knows we are supposed to buy when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy, but that is far harder to do. When the crowd is running scared and our trading screen is filled with red, it is way too easy to succumb to the crowd’s seduction.

In Friday morning trade the Chinese stock market is holding up relatively well after their government unwound some the currency moves that unnerved markets. This bumped their market and halted what could have been another day of relentless selling. They also abandoned the ill-conceived 7% percent circuit breaker that exacerbated recent volatility. Together these have been enough to at least temporarily delay another wave of panic driven selling. As a result US and European futures are higher in sympathy.

Assuming China can hold it together for the rest of the trading day, the next big event is the US monthly employment report. Normally this is a headline event, but it has been forced to the back pages as global volatility dominated the financial media’s attention. The most important thing to remember is the S&P500 responds to US corporate sales and earnings, not Chinese. If our recovery continues to chug along despite Chinese weakness, our stock market do the same.

China has been slowing for over a year and no one believes the overly optimistic economic growth numbers the communist government is putting out. If China weakness was going to take us down, it would have happened by now. The US is largely a self-centered, consumer and services based economy. Our vulnerability to a Chinese slowdown is far more limited than an export dependent economy like Germany. And the proof will be in the pudding. Another strong US employment report Friday morning will show these Chinese and oil fears are overblown. Soon traders will shift their focus from these global-macro distractions to the actual performance of our economy as demonstrated by employment and fourth quarter earnings. While it’s been a lot of fun following the Chinese and oil markets the last few weeks, it is time to get down to business and focus on the things that really matter when determining stock prices.

Jani

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Looking Ahead to 2016

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

S&P500 daily

End of Day Analysis:

Santa was a little late this year, but better late than never. Tuesday the S&P500 finally reclaimed both the 50 and 200 day moving averages and is only three-percent from all-time highs. While it isn’t appropriate to draw long-term conclusions from this week’s light holiday trade, it is encouraging to see the path of least resistance is higher despite the relentless onslaught of ominous headlines. In a year where we’ve been given every excuse to sell off, this market has stubbornly hung in there.

Since this will be my last post of 2015, I will share the 2016 outlook I wrote for Investing.com.

What does 2016 hold for us? The best place to start looking for answers is in our past. Over the last 50-years the S&P 500 finished higher 78% of the time with a median gain of 18%. But what about those pesky off-years? The remaining 22% of the time we finished in the red, but with a more modest 10% median loss. These phenomenally favorable odds explain why the S&P 500 is up a staggering 10,800% over the last 50-years. Without anything else to go on, clearly the smart move is sticking with the market.

But everyone wants to know if 2016 will be a typical year. Even though the S&P 500 is within a few percent of all-time highs, bearishness remains unusually elevated in most sentiment surveys. It seems the crowd is far more concerned about this six-year-old bull market than excited to embrace it. And who can blame them? Looking at the last 12-months of headlines, it is far easier to recall bearish stories because there were so many of them.

But as a contrarian, the crowd’s cynical outlook is constructive because it means a lot of negative sentiment is already priced in. I fear markets that stop going up on good news, not ones that fail to sell off on bad news. Inevitably the news cycle will shift and we will stumble into a wave of positive headlines. The S&P 500 that struggled to move beyond 2,100 throughout 2015 will explode higher when these cynics are transformed into believers.

While it is impossible to predict the surprises we will encounter over the next 366 days, given this sentiment skew and the fact we ran out of owners willing to sell bad news, the odds of a good year for US markets are even more favorable than the historical averages suggest.

Happy New Year!
Jani

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