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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 finished Tuesday’s session essentially flat as Monday’s wave of selling turned into a lot of nothing.
As I wrote Monday evening, the market is consolidating November’s gains under 4,600 resistance. This makes recent price action meaningless at best, and outright deceptive at worst:
Far and away, the hardest thing to do in the market is to not trade. We have opinions, and the market is always doing something, but at this stage, every trading signal fizzles and reverses hours later. Just ask all of the bulls that bought Friday’s strength, only to watch those profits turn into losses Monday morning.
This is a consolidating market, meaning we can’t read anything into these intraday gyrations. Something will happen, but this isn’t it. Keep waiting and watching.
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This market is an equal opportunity humiliator, zinging both the bulls and the bears. Optimists who bought Friday’s pop are sitting on losses, and now we can add cynics who aggressively sold Tuesday’s poor open. More interesting trading opportunities are coming, but these are not them.
At this point, it is a tossup between stalling under 4,600 resistance or resting before the next leg is higher. This remains a sentiment trade, meaning anything is possible. The best we can do is wait for the market to reveal its intentions. Until then, smart money is sitting on their hands.
I’d love to be making money right now, but it’s been a fantastic year of trading, and there is no reason to force a bad trade here for nothing more than the impulsive need to be trading. Better opportunities are coming. We just have to be patient.
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% Monday as the index continued consolidating November’s big rebound under 4,600 resistance.
The market has been stalled for a couple of weeks, but this was expected. As I wrote early last week:
Calm markets are bullish, and the path of least resistance remains higher, but I’m not excited to hold all of the risk underneath us for another few points of upside. That means I will keep watching this develop from the sidelines after collecting big profits before the Thanksgiving break. But if this strength persists and we are setting up for another pop through in overhead resistance, I will be happy to jump back in. But we’re not there yet.
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Well, here we are a week later, and not much has changed.
Far and away, the hardest thing to do in the market is to not trade. We have opinions, and the market is always doing something, but at this stage, every trading signal fizzles and reverses hours later. Just ask all of the bulls that bought Friday’s strength, only to watch those profits turn into losses Monday morning.
This is a consolidating market, meaning we can’t read anything into these intraday gyrations. Something will happen, but this isn’t it. Keep waiting and watching.
Sign up for my FREE email alerts so you don’t miss the market’s next big move
If you find these posts useful, help me out by liking and sharing them!
Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For as little as $1.28/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% on this first Monday back from the Thanksgiving-affected week.
Not much is going on in the financial press, and a little give-back following last week’s modest 1% gains is not a surprise. Big money was not involved last week, and institutional investors often undo what the little guys did when they were on vacation.
The first few sessions after a major holiday are usually slow, and I’m not expecting anything interesting before the second half of the week…at the earliest.
That said, it is constructive to see the index hold the majority of recent gains. If this market skating were on thin ice, Monday’s selling would have accelerated, not stalled after a fairly inconsequential loss.
At this point, most owners are comfortable holding for higher prices, and the resulting tight supply is keeping a floor under the market. The longer we go without retreating, the more real these prices become. (But as always, we can’t take anything for granted, and the next wave of fearful selling is never more than one bad headline away.)
The market is behaving well near 4,600 resistance, and acting like it wants to test this level before doing anything else.
Calm markets are bullish, and the path of least resistance remains higher, but I’m not excited to hold all of the risk underneath us for another 20-40 points of upside. That means I will keep watching this develop from the sidelines after collecting big profits before the Thanksgiving break. But if this strength persists and we are setting up for another pop through in overhead resistance, I will be happy to jump back in. But we’re not there yet.
Smashing through 4,600 resistance or getting rejected by this level, it doesn’t matter what the market does next as long as it does something. We will learn a lot about the market’s mood in the second half of this week.
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If you find these posts useful, help me out by liking and sharing them!
Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For as little as $1.28/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
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