Jan 04

What the S&P 500 is telling us it wants to do next. Plus Bitcoin holders, what are you doing?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday was a mixed session for the S&P 500 as an early push to record highs fizzled and retreated into the red. While a bearish intraday reversal is never a welcome sight, the index bounced off of those afternoon lows and closed pretty much where Monday left off.

Ties go to the trend and even though the index is struggling with 4,800 resistance, the fact we keep holding near record highs is a win for bulls. Stocks fall from overbought levels fairly quickly and trading at these levels for over a week tells us most owners are fairly comfortable with these prices and few are rushing to lock in profits.

As I often say, a market that refuses to go down will eventually go up. At this point, it is only a matter of time.


Bitcoin is stuck in the mud. $50k’s been a ceiling since early December and this cryptocurrency keeps finding itself falling back to the mid-$40k’s. In a mirror of the equity index’s analysis above, the longer this hold near recent lows, the more likely it is to make new lows.

This was a sell as it fell through $60k support in November and December’s $50k violation was yet another reason to abandon ship. At this rate, we will be saying the same thing about $40k as this trades in the $30k’s.

Remember, only fools hold all the way down. Use trailing stops to protect your profits. It is far easier to buy back in after a bounce than it is to wish something higher after a big pullback.

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Jan 03

Only fools give up on something that is working, plus TSLA answered our prayers

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 added 0.6% on the first trading session of 2022 is flirting with 4,800 again.

The calendar rolls over and we get more of the same. But this was largely expected. Nothing meaningful changed over the weekend and the market started right where it left off.

Without a doubt, something will change this year and 2022 won’t be as easy or generous as 2021 was, but these things take time to develop and it will come on gradually, to the point we won’t even realize something changed until after it is already well underway. But that’s the way this usually works. All too often people trade what worked in the past, not what is happening in front of them.

But rather than try to get ahead of the market, as independent traders, we are nimble enough to simply follow the market’s lead. If this wants to rally through January. Fine, we stick it. If it keeps going through February and March, even better. But when it finally noses over, we get out and look for the next opportunity. Until then, stick with what has been working.

No matter what we think the market should be doing, it is acting well and that means we stick with it. Weak and vulnerable markets don’t keep setting record highs. This rally will die like all of the others that came before it, but this is not that time. Until prices actually start to decline, we continue giving it the benefit of doubt.

Our stops are in the lower to mid 4,700s and until something changes, we keep doing what has been working.


Look at that, TSLA is back at $1,200. Funny how that works.

People always pray for their favorite stocks to pull back so they can add more. But every time the market answers their prayers, most people lose their nerve and instead of buying more, they impulsively sell what they have for a discount.

And wouldn’t you know it, as soon as these people bail out, prices bounce back to the highs. But that’s the way this game works. Always has, always will.

Profits come to proactive traders that move before everyone else. Everyone else gives all of their money to these savvy traders. It’s time to stop following and start leading.

As I wrote a few weeks ago:

I still like this company and stock, but I’m a trader and that means I sell things that are going down. I’m happy to buy this when it bounces, but until it gets back above $1k, I don’t have any interest. And in fact, I actually hope it falls back to $800 support because that gives me even more opportunity to profit from the rebound.

TSLA only fell to $900, but that was still plenty of profit opportunity for the people those of us that were acting instead of reacting.

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Dec 21

Why the index bounced back so quickly, plus a less painful way to trade Bitcoin at these levels

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 tumbled 1.1% on Monday and gained 1.8% on Tuesday. So much for all the fear-mongering and panicked selling.

But this outcome was largely expected. As I wrote Monday evening:

The final weeks of the year are vulnerable to increased volatility because big money’s steadying hand already left for vacation. That puts retail traders in control through New Year’s. But lucky for us, these impulsive traders don’t have much money and they run out of ammunition quickly. While they can drive dramatic swings like Monday’s open, they struggle to sustain these moves and they tend to bounce back fairly quickly.

Barely twenty-four hours later and the market already erased all of Monday’s losses. After impulsive retail traders ran out of things to sell, prices bounced. Funny how that works.

As for how I’m trading this, as I wrote last week, I sold a good portion of my trading positions when the first wave of selling undercut my trailing stops. But as soon as I’m out, the first thing I’m doing is looking to get back in. Again, from Monday evening’s post:

Like any good trader, I don’t know when to give up. When the index bounced above Monday’s opening levels and again when it closed fairly robustly, I went ahead and bought more partial positions. And if stocks open well Tuesday morning, I’ll add even more.

Trading around these whipsaws can feel like a waste of time, but it is dirt cheap insurance protecting us against a much larger selloff. While I was fairly certain this latest dip would bounce, I’m not willing to bet my trading account on it. Selling and buying back in is so easy, there is no reason not to do it. Sometimes I even manage to pocket a few bucks buying back in at lower levels.

No one is getting rich arbitraging a handful of points like this, but protection against a larger selloff and actually making a few bucks in the process? It’s hard to beat that risk/reward.


Bitcoin has been mirroring the equity market and this cryptocurrency rallied nicely on Tuesday too. But as I’ve been saying for a while, I’m not interested in this until it gets back above $50k support.

For those that have been reading these posts for a while remember I was saying the exact same thing about $60k back in November. Now that we’re $10k lower, traders that heeded that advice are glad they did.

As I often say, it is better to be a little late than a lot early. Bitcoin will probably get above $50k. But it might need to go through the $30k’s first. There is no reason to ride through that dip if we don’t have to.

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Dec 20

What really drove Monday’s tumble and why we should expect a bounce, plus how savvy traders are dealing with $TLSA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 gapped 1% lower at Monday’s open after Biden’s Build Back Better bill died in the Senate and Omicron spread like wildfire over the weekend.

But the selling didn’t accelerate as most owners continued holding their favorite stocks and the index finished the day almost exactly where it started. This definitely counts as a bad day for stocks, but after the dreadful open, the herd did’t rush for the exits and that follow-up stability was nice to see.

The final weeks of the year are vulnerable to increased volatility because big money’s steadying hand already left for vacation. That puts retail traders in control through New Year’s. But lucky for us, these impulsive traders don’t have much money and they run out of ammunition quickly. While they can drive dramatic swings like Monday’s open, they struggle to sustain these moves and they tend to bounce back fairly quickly.

I don’t read much into what retail traders are doing this week, but the price is the price and we have to respect these moves even if we don’t believe they will stick around.

We don’t change our trading plan just because this is a holiday week and little guys are running amok. We sell violations of our stops and we buy the (inevitable) bounces by starting small, getting in early, and keeping stops nearby.

Monday morning’s slump under the opening levels forced me out of my partial positions for a loss, but the potential for this to happen is why Friday’s purchase was only a partial position.

But like any good trader, I don’t know when to give up and when the index bounced above Monday’s opening levels Friday afternoon and actually closed fairly robustly, I went ahead and bought another partial position. If stocks open well Tuesday morning, I’ll add even more. If not, no big deal, I pull the plug and keep watching and waiting for the bounce. Maybe Wednesday.

But the market traded well Monday afternoon, all things considered, and I don’t see any panic in the midday price-action, which is a good first sign.


Bad keeps getting worse in TSLA as last week’s violation of $1k is now testing $900.

This stock is down nearly 30% from this Fall’s highs and is just another reminder that holding too long is just as bad as selling too early.

Always follow highfliers like this with a trailing stop because these things fall even quicker than they rise.

While no one wants to sell their favorite stocks, selling our biggest winners is the only way we make money in this game.

If $900 doesn’t hold, then $800 is up next.

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