End of Day Update:
Opening weakness in the S&P500 quickly rebounded and turned into a decent gain for the index. Overnight worries about Chinese manufacturing and European weakness faded as soon as we opened. While it was nice to finish in the green, we struggled with 2,130 again as we find ourselves stuck in a very narrow range between 2,120 support and 2,130 resistance.
Headlines have given this market has every excuse to sell off, yet we keep making new highs. Too often the novice contrarian confuses price with sentiment. They assume high prices automatically equate to overly bullish sentiment and is why they want to bet against the trend. But the truth is price and sentiment are completely independent. Just as surprising, the contrarian trade is most often sticking with the trend while every else is convinced it’s gone too far and is about to correct. That is how we find ourself at record high prices while the AAII’s bullish sentiment remains 14% under historic averages and near five-year lows. It seems the crowd developed a fear of heights.
The most compelling signal the market can give us is not doing what everyone thinks it should. When we’re supposed to crash on Greece, weak GDP, rate hikes, and all the others, but we rally instead, that tells us to grab on and enjoy the ride. Don’t fear these headlines, instead fear the day when all the news is good and the market stops going higher
Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and writer who has successfully traded stocks and options for more than a decade. He earned a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA and M.S. Marketing from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes manufacturing engineering at Fortune 500 companies, structural engineering, small business consultant, collegiate instructor, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two young children.