End of Day Update:
On Thursday the S&P500 ended down a modest 0.1% following Wednesday’s gigantic reversal. Thursday started weak, but we quickly found support at 2,080, effectively extinguishing the emotional trade that dominated Wednesday. If the market was vulnerable to a collapse, sellers would have piled on this morning’s weakness and the downward spiral of emotional selling would have resumed. Instead, supply dried up and we traded sideways the rest of the day.
It’s cliché to say “don’t fight the tape”, but fighting this market has practically become a national pastime. Sentiment remains in the toilet by almost every measure. Stocktwits $SPY sentiment had bears outnumbering bulls by 2-to-1. The historically bullish AAII sentiment survey also shows bears beating bulls by a healthy margin. Identical trends are evident in put/call ratios and short interest. And anecdotally it is hard to get away from the bearish hecklers in my blog’s comments and Twitter feed. Everyone loves hating on this “overvalued” market, yet here we stand less than three-percent from all-time highs. When the crowd and the market don’t agree, my money is always on the market.
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Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and writer who has successfully traded stocks and options for more than a decade. He earned a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines and an MBA and M.S. Marketing from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes manufacturing engineering at Fortune 500 companies, structural engineering, small business consultant, collegiate instructor, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two young children.