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August was the sixth month since March Covid lows and it certainly feels like the rebound should be running out of momentum. But is it?
Out of the 21 trading days in August, the S&P 500 finished green 16 times. Of those five red days, most were less than a quarter percent loss. Add it all together and August finished a very impressive 7% higher. Trade that with a 3x ETF and August was a 20% month! Not bad, not bad at all.
Sometimes it feels like we are too late. Other times we worry the market is already too high. But as I often write, things that are high tend to get even higher. And that has definitely been the case with this Covid rebound. Last month’s irrational highs got even more irrational this month. Anyone still waiting for the “inevitable” pullback is still waiting.
What does September have in store for us? Most likely more of the same. A trend is far more likely to continue than reverse. While the next step-back is just around the corner (it could start at any moment), we don’t trade that outlook until the stepback is actually upon us. Until then, keep giving this market the benefit of doubt.
At this point, there is nothing to do other than keep following this rally higher with trailing stops near 3,440. While I am concerned about last week’s acceleration, if this is the start of a climax top, these things usually get far more frenzied before the collapse.
I don’t love the market at these elevated levels, but at the moment, it is doing everything it needs to do to keep me in it. As long as this keeps going higher, I will continue holding and following it higher with a trailing stop. But if this fizzles, I will be happy to lock-in 50% profits since the June lows (3x ETF). All good trades eventually come to an end and so will this one.
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Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and financial analyst that has successfully traded stocks and options for nearly three decades. He has an undergraduate engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines and two graduate business degrees from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes engineering at Fortune 500 companies, small business consulting, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two children.
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