The week started well for the S&P 500 as it continued Friday’s bounce off of 3,900 support. Treasury yields moderated modestly and slipped under 1.7%. While not a big pullback, the decrease was enough to put stock traders in a dip-buying mood and the index is back within 1% of last week’s record close.
While the stock market is trading well and this resilience would be a big green light to start buying more under more conventional circumstances, I have a lot less confidence the worst is over in the bond market. In fact, I fully expect Treasuries to challenge 2% over the next few weeks.
Bond investors are human beings and prone to the same emotional mood swings as stock investors. That means these large moves tend to go way too far before eventually moderating. And in this instance, 2% seems to be the next target.
But as long as that move to 2% is relatively measured and turns into capitulation before retreating back to a more manageable 1.5%, this rise in yields shouldn’t threaten the bull market. Instead, this will simply be another bump on the stock market’s way higher.
That said, all bets are off if the bond selling intensifies and yields shoot past 2% and keep going. That’s the worst-case scenario. And as is usually the case with the worst-case scenario, the likelihood is of this outcome is slim. Most of the time reality turns out less-bad than feared. But that doesn’t mean equity investors won’t overreact to the risks over the near-term.
I really like the way the S&P 500 bounced off of 3,900 support and this move is buyable as long as the index remains above 3,900. Tumble under 3,900 on Tuesday and we need to pull the plug and reevaluate.
TSLA is struggling to add to March’s bounce off of $600 support and the rebound appears stalled under $700. The bounce is still holdable with a stop near $600, but if prices fall under $600, get out and even consider shorting the weakness. If $600 support doesn’t hold, the next obvious support level is $400. IMO, there is no reason to sit through a 33% pullback if we don’t have to. And if the stock bounces back above $600, it is easy enough to buy back in.
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