All Posts by Jani Ziedins

Follow

About the Author

Jani Ziedins (pronounced Ya-nee) is a full-time investor and financial analyst that has successfully traded stocks and options for nearly three decades. He has an undergraduate engineering degree from the Colorado School of Mines and two graduate business degrees from the University of Colorado Denver. His prior professional experience includes engineering at Fortune 500 companies, small business consulting, and managing investment real estate. He is now fortunate enough to trade full-time from home, affording him the luxury of spending extra time with his wife and two children.

May 07

Why this bull market just won’t quit, plus what Cryptocurrency history tells us is coming next

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

After a few weeks of flirting with 4,200, the S&P 500 finally smashed through this psychological barrier Friday.

The monthly employment report missed expectations by a country mile Friday morning, but not only did the shockingly poor employment fail to spook the investors, it caused them to flood in and start bidding up prices.

As paradoxical as this seems, this remains a stimulus-fueled bull market and lethargic employment promises to keep the government spigots flowing at full speed.

No doubt there will be consequences for all of this money printing, but that is a problem for another day. Today, let the good times roll.

Stick with what has been working and that is holding for higher prices. As I wrote Monday following a modest bounce :

[T]his mixed day still favors the bulls. If this rally was truly overvalued and fragile, Friday’s selling would have accelerated, not stalled and bounced. Until we see a more compelling warning, keep holding for higher prices and lifting our trailing stops.

More than 100 points later and this is still as true now as it was then.

There is an interesting divergence developing in the Crypto markets. Until recently, Bitcoin was the only place to be. Bitcoin surged from under $10k late last year to more than $60k earlier this year, leaving all of the altcoins for dead. But then a switch flipped as Bitcoin stalled near $60k and all of the copycats started popping, including the most famous meme coin, Dogecoin.

This resurgence of the altcoins has set off a treasure hunt as speculators chase the next Dogecoin.

The problem for Bitcoin (and all the other cryptos) is this rapidly widening net is diluting the money available to drive any individual crypto higher.

Those of us that have been doing this for more than a few months remember Bitcoin’s last peak back in 2017. Coincidentally enough, that top coincided with a similar explosion of altcoins. Fewer dollars chasing more coins means less demand for each individual coin. Less demand = lower prices.

Will this flood of altcoins end any differently? Only time will tell, but only a fool believes “this time is different”.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

May 06

Why bulls control this market, plus what’s next for $NFLX

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Thursday was a good session for the S&P 500 with the index reclaiming 4,200 resistance.

Two days ago it looked like the market was breaking down, today it looks like everything is under control. And so goes the swinging pendulum of sentiment.

But this shouldn’t surprise readers of this blog. As I wrote Tuesday:

As bad as this felt midday [Tuesday], the close was robust and showed most institutional investors are not taking profits and still holding for higher prices. How we finish always matters more than how we start and despite [Tuesday’s] red close, this qualifies as a good finish.

Two days later and the index is back near the highs. Blink during these dips and you’ll miss it!

The trend is higher and that gives the advantage to the bulls. Bears are the ones who have to prove something changed and they definitely didn’t get the job done this week.

Bouncing off of support and returning to the highs shows bulls are still in control. Keep doing what has been working, which is holding for higher prices and lifting our trailing stops.

This bull market will die like all of the others that came before it, but this is not that day.

As well as the index has been trading, TSLA appears to be stuck in the mud.

The stock slipped under $700 support on Monday and it has been unable to reclaim this key support level ever since.

TSLA has been underperforming the index all year and that trend continued Thursday as the stock finished in the red on a good day for the rest of the market.

At this point, it looks like the stock is headed back to $600 support. And if that doesn’t hold, then there is a lot of clear air down to $400.

Traders with with profits should be looking to protect them and aggressive traders can short this stock with a stop just above $700.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

May 05

What a half-full/half-empty day means for the indexes, plus the next $NFLX trade

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

Wednesday morning the S&P 500 continued Tuesday’s bounce off of 4,120 support, at least initially. Unfortunately, after erasing nearly all of the previous day’s decline in midday trade, the index retreated back to breakeven by the close.

This was definitely one of those half-full, half-empty kinds of days. Bulls are pointing to the stalled selloff and bears are gloating over the weak close.

In situations like this, the tie-breaker always goes with the trend. This is still very much a bull market and that means when everything is equal, the next move typically resolves to the upside.

Tuesday’s dip and bounce gave us a clear line in the sand. Remain above 4,120 support and the bounce is alive and well. Retreat back to support so soon after bouncing off of it and lower prices are ahead. Plan your next trade accordingly.

As expected, NFLX violated $500 support, giving us a nice short entry.

Stocks bounce from oversold levels quickly. Unfortunately, NFLX has been hovering near $500 for a few weeks now. That tells us this pullback following disappointing subscriber growth hasn’t reached oversold levels yet. Something that holds next to support for too long will inevitably violate that support. And that’s exactly what NFLX did today.

NFLX is now a short with a stop just above $500.

That said, trading against the trend is one of the most difficult ways to make money because it requires impeccable timing. This is a good short entry, but we need to remain nimble. Keep a nearby stop and be prepared to take profits quickly. NFLX is still a great company and this dip will bounce hard and fast once it reaches capitulation. Don’t get caught on the wrong side of that bounce.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

May 04

Why Tuesday’s dip isn’t what bears think, plus the safest way to approach Dogecoin

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday was a rocky session for the S&P 500 with the index shedding 60-points intraday. But by the time it was all said and done, the index recovered half of those losses before the close.

As calm as things have been, a return of volatility definitely got people’s attention. But as dramatic as Tuesday felt, it really wasn’t that big of a deal. The index briefly tested the lows from three weeks ago before bouncing. If the bears were are looking to break this bull, they need to do a lot better than a modest test of lows so recent, if they were milk, they’d still be drinkable.

As bad as this felt midday, the close was robust and showed most institutional investors are not taking profits and still holding for higher prices. How we finish always matters more than how we start and despite the red close, this qualifies as a good finish.

These midday lows gave us our new stop levels and the index is ownable as long as it remains above 4,120.

If this dip crossed your stops (like it did mine), we have no choice but to get out. But just because the market dumped us out doesn’t mean we have to give up on this trade.

Most dips are false alarms and that means we always need to be looking for an opportunity to get back in. Sometimes we are lucky and the dip carries on for a bit, allowing us to get in at much lower levels.

Other times we are not as lucky and the bounce is quick, leaving us chasing our tails. But at the end of the day, I always prefer an annoying whipsaw over stubbornly holding through a far more damaging correction.

Savvy traders are willing to take small losses when it allows them to avoid larger ones.

Edit: Corrected to reference Tuesday

Three weeks ago I wrote the following about Dogecoin:

While I don’t have a problem buying something that is going up (meaning Dogecoin is a legitimate trade), but that is only as long as people are trading this and not investing in it. As long as a person is agile and willing to take profits, they can ignore all Dogecoin critics. But if a person believes the hype, good luck with that.

Dogecoin has doubled since then, yet nothing has changed about how I’m approaching this. This trade is a ton of fun.  But if a person doesn’t have a plan to take profits, they will end up giving all of this back and then some. Don’t be the fool left holding the bag.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

May 03

What Monday’s feeble bounce means for the index, plus a word of warning for $GME holders

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

On Monday, the S&P 500 bounced back from Friday’s dip and recovered 0.27%.

While this green day seems positive enough, bears will point to the index’s inability to hang on to the psychologically significant 4,200 level. The opening strength fizzled and the index ultimately closed nearly the daily lows. That makes this price action “a green day with an asterisk”.

As is usually the case, there are no clear and obvious bullish or bearish trading signals. That would make this easy and as everyone knows trading is anything but easy.

As speculators, we live in a world of shades of gray. Monday was bullish in that Friday’s modest dip didn’t continue. And the resulting bounce had hints of bearishness since the index couldn’t hang on to the early highs. That gives us a mixed bag with both sides having something to crow about.

While this price action seems like a tie, in these situations, we always give the benefit of the doubt to the trend. When all things are equal, we stick with what has been working.

In this case, this mixed day still favors the bulls. If this rally was truly overvalued and fragile, Friday’s selling would have accelerated, not stalled and bounced.

Until we see a more compelling warning, keep holding for higher prices and lifting our trailing stops.

While GME has faded from the headlines, the stock price remains stubbornly high.

The problem for GME bulls is this was always a momentum story. Unfortunately, the public has forgotten about this trade and as a result, momentum has vanished.

That said, this stock is still ridiculously valued (a $20 stock selling for $162). And that means the selloff still has a long, long way to go.

The bounce back to $200 was a fun ride and produced a quick buck for nimble traders. But the subsequent retreat has given us another lower-high and the downtrend is still very much intact.

This party is over and anyone still holding out for $1,000 is deluding themselves. If a person has profits, take them. If a person is stilling on losses, chalk the lesson up as experience and sell while prices are still high. There will always be other trading opportunities (as long as we still have money left to trade!)

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

Apr 30

Why “do-nothing” is bullish for stocks, plus how a false-alarm in $TSLA gave us a great trade

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free Weekly Analysis: 

It was another do-nothing week for the S&P 500 with the index finishing almost exactly where it started. Combined with the previous week, the market moved exactly 0.11% over the last ten trading sessions. But for a bull market with plenty of reasons to fall, flat is a meaningful accomplishment.

Absurd valuations. Rising interest rates. Inflationary money printing. Looming tax hikes. Pick your poison. Yet this rally continues defying the skeptics.

Rather than argue with this market, smart money is going along for the ride. Don’t fight what is working and keep holding for higher prices. Leave your stops in the mid 4,100s and see where this goes. And if we get stopped out next week, guess what? You can always get back in when conditions warrant it.

Selling doesn’t mean we have to give up on a trade. Ask ask all the people who got left on the sidelines following November’s, February’s, and March’s dips. Think they are kicking themselves for not jumping aboard the rebound?

Stay safe by always respecting your stops, but never be afraid to buy the next bounce even if it happens a few hours later.

A market that refuses to go down will eventually go up and odds are really good we haven’t seen the top of this bull market.

TSLA retreated under $700 support this week and for many people, that meant locking in some profits defensively. But as is often the case, the dip proved to be a false alarm and prices bounce back above $700 Friday.

While a lot of people feel foolish buying back in after selling a false alarm, the only other alternative is holding a larger pullback all the way down to the bottom. Personally, I know which “mistake” I’d rather make.

As for TSLA’s latest violation and rebound, this was an excellent opportunity to start a new trade. Buy the bounce and leave a stop just under support. While chances are good this bounce won’t stick, with such a clear entry point and sensible nearby stop, the risk/reward is skewed heavily in our favor.

$700 remains a critical level. Hold above support and everything is good. Fall under and it is time to get defensive (and an aggressive trader can short the violation).

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

Apr 29

Why the cynics keep getting this market wrong, plus what to do with “too high” $FB, $GOOG, and $AMZN

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

After a few do-nothing sessions in the first half of the week, the S&P 500 made up for it on Thursday by traversing nearly 80-points intraday in a dramatic whipsaw.

The index gapped above the psychologically significant 4,200 at the open. But rather than embrace the breakout, it was met by waves of profit-taking as some investors developed a fear of heights.

All too often people try to top-tick the market by guessing which point is finally too high. Unfortunately for them, too-high almost always turns into even-higher. And not long after the profit-taking knocked the index back under 4,200 Thursday morning, supply dried up and confident dip buyers pushed the index back to record highs.

Higher interest rates. Higher taxes. It doesn’t matter what the bears throw at this market, nothing can take it down. While this nirvana cannot last forever and stocks will falter at some point, this is not that point.

By reversing an early selloff and closing near the daily highs, this rally proved it is still alive and well. Ignore all the talk about too-high and stick with what has been working. Hold for higher prices and keep lifting our trailing stops.

The cynics will eventually be right, but they will be wrong for a long time before it happens.

FB and GOOGL had blowout earnings and not to be left out, AMZN joined the blowout earnings party. These are the best-of-the-best companies in our economy and it is no surprise they are roaring back to life as the economy recovers.

So much for fear of expensive, overbought, and every other cynical criticism thrown at these stocks. These companies keep doing what they are good at and it is little wonder their stock prices keep going up.

While this latest pop makes them even more expensive, high almost always gets even higher. Stick with what has been working and no doubt in a few weeks and months, people will be kicking themselves for not buying at these levels.

That said, don’t hold anything with blind devotion. Pick sensible stops and if these stocks falter, get out. Easy as that. Until then, keep holding for higher prices.

If you find these posts useful, please return the favor by liking and sharing them!

Sign up for FREE Email Alerts to get profitable insights like these delivered to your inbox every evening.

What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, receive actionable analysis and a trading plan every day during market hours

Follow Jani on Twitter

1 … 91 92 93 94 95 … 248