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Why this week’s dip could finally be the start of a larger selloff

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

It’s been a rough week for the S&P 500 as Thursday’s 0.5% loss makes this four down days in a row.

Monday was Labor Day, making this unofficial start of the fall trading season. It’s been a nice and easy summer and a trend is far more likely to continue than reverse, but if the market’s mood is going to change, this transition in seasons is a good time for it to happen.

There isn’t a quantifiable reason to claim this rally is running out of gas and this week’s dip is different than all of the other failed dips this year. But just knowing where we are and where we’ve come from, it feels like this time could be different.

As I often write, how we finish is far more important than how we start and by that measure, Thursday’s was an ugly day. Early gains evaporated and the index crashed through 4,510 and 4,500 support on its way to closing near Wednesday’s lows.

I don’t mind red days that finish well above the early lows. In most instances those are bullish signals. But there was nothing bullish about Thursday’s retreat and close at the daily lows.

I had my stops spread across the upper 4,400s and lower 4,500s and Thursday’s pathetic price action squeezed me out. Most likely this week’s stumble will turn out to be nothing more than yet another buyable dip. But for me, it’s been a nice run and that makes this a good time to lock-in some profits.

If the index bounces back above 4,500 on Friday or sometime next week, I’m more than happy to get back in. But as long as it remains under 4,500, I’m more than content watching this from the sidelines.

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The key level SPX needs to hold, plus why even Bitcoin bulls should be hoping for a larger pullback

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 lost 0.34% on the first day back from the long holiday weekend. But more importantly, the index remains well above the psychologically significant 4,500 level.

Tuesday’s early selling found support near 4,510 and now that becomes our new canary in the coalmine. Anything above this level and all is fine and dandy. Slip under this level and we need to watch the price action with a more critical eye.

As we have seen all year, it is really hard for any dip to get started when so few owners are interested in selling. As much as conventional warns us about complacent markets, the critics always forget to mention just how long complacency lasts before the collapse.

I have no idea how much longer this rally can keep going, but at this point, it is not showing any signs of letting up. As much as I question the sustainability of this one-way strength, there is nothing to do other than follow the market’s lead. Until something changes, we operate under the assumption nothing has changed.

Near-term support is setting up near 4,510. Keep holding for higher prices as long as the index remains above this level. Slip under 4,510 and it makes sense to start peeling some positions off proactively. But like every other time we sell in an uptrend, we always turn around and start looking for the next buyable bounce, even if it happens a few hours later.

Remember, just because we harvest some profits proactively doesn’t mean we have to give up on a trade. As soon as this starts going up again, we need to be back in.

Tuesday was an ugly day for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency floated above $52k this weekend ahead of El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as a national currency. Unfortunately, the rollout was glitchy and that caused the cryptocurrency to tumble more than 10%.

Anyone that’s been trading for a while understands “buy the rumor, sell the news”. Is this what we are seeing in Bitcoin? It is certainly starting that way. As long as this remains under $50k, we have to be careful.

It makes sense to take some profits off the table and wait to buy back in after this reclaims $50k.

Buy low and sell high. Even bulls should be wishing for a larger pullback here so they can buy more at lower prices.

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Is 4,500 finally too high? Plus, the right time to buy AMZN

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis

The S&P 500 poked its head above 4,500 on Wednesday for the first time in history. The “sell in May” crowd now finds themselves 300 points behind. So much for conventional wisdom…

Is 4,500 finally the top? Not if we use recent history as a guide because the same was said about 4k, 4,100, 4,200, 4,300, and 4,400. Heck, even I thought 4,400 was getting a tad too far.

But as long as something keeps working, we have no choice but to stick with it. Maybe 4,500 is finally far enough. Or maybe 4,600 is just around the corner. Either way, we will know the answer soon enough. Until then, continue giving this unstoppable bull market the benefit of the doubt by moving our stops up and continuing to hold.

Headlines remain benign and we have a couple of weeks until Labor Day signals the traditional end of the slower summer trading season. But once we get into the heart of September, be on the lookout for signs the market’s mood is changing. Until then, enjoy the ride.

Signup for free email alerts if you want to be notified when these subtle, but market-changing developments start taking place.

Last week’s rebound in AMZN is progressing nicely and this trade is going according to plan as long as it remains above $3,200.

As I wrote last week:

If $3,200 doesn’t bounce soon, then $3k is coming up. On the other side, a dip and bounce back above $3.200 is a buyable entry with a stop just under this level. This is acting like it wants to go lower, but it always does that just before the bounce. In this case, have a trade ready for either direction.

As it turned out, AMZN was playing possum and looked the most hopeless moments before turning it around. While there are no guarantees this bounce will stick, for those that acted early and decisively, this bounce gave us a low-risk entry with a lot of upside potential.

For those that missed the buyable bounce, this stock is still trading at attractive levels, unfortunately, buying now requires taking on a little more risk than buying last week. But the risk/reward still favors buying this bounce.

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Is the Taper Tantrum already over? Plus what to do with AMZN’s ugly trade.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Thursday started ugly when the S&P 500 gapped 0.7% lower at the open. The Fed disappointed investors Wednesday afternoon when it revealed they could start tapering bond purchases later this year. While not a dealbreaker by itself, it reminded investors this free-money gravy train isn’t going to last forever.

Wednesday’s disappointment spilled over to Thursday’s open, but as is often the case following large gap opens, supply dried up almost immediately. And within hours, the market was back in the green. So much for that ugly start.

Lucky for regular readers of this blog, they were prepared for the market’s sharp dip and bounce. As I wrote Wednesday:

Maybe the selling continues Thursday, but this has been an incredibly confident market all year long and chances are good this dip will stall and bounce like all of the other dips that came before it.

But as good as things appeared in midday trade, the rebound stalled and the index ultimately closed only a handful of points in the green. While it is usually hard to get excited by a 0.1% gain, context is everything. More important than the trivial gain, the market tried to break this bull market and very few owners took the bait.

This continues to be a confident market and no matter what the cynics say about complacency, the one thing they always forget to mention is just how long complacency lasts before the fall.

While it would have been nice to see Thursday’s rebound close near the highs, the most important thing is the selling stalled and reversed. Confident owners still don’t want to sell and as long as the market isn’t pressuring them, these confident owners will continue holding for higher prices. Close green on Friday and this week’s tumble is already old news.

As for how to trade this, hopefully, you were using sensible stops and were able to lock in some nice profits Wednesday afternoon. Thursday morning’s gap and bounce gave us a very attractive entry point with a stop just under the early lows. Now we simply wait to see what happens next.

Stay above 4,370 and everything looks good. Close above 4,400 Friday afternoon, even better. But if the selling resumes Friday afternoon and we fall under 4,370, all bets are off and we wait for the next buyable bounce.

AMZN is ugly and getting uglier.

This larger pullback was kicked off by disappointing earnings last month. It is hard to avoid a big earnings gap like that and it happens to the best of us. But the inexcusable mistake is holding the subsequent dip under $3,300. That was our clear signal to get out and for the most adventurous to initiate a short.

These tumbles are rarely a one-day events and AMZN is proving that there is still downside left in this move. If $3,200 doesn’t bounce soon, then $3k is coming up. On the other side, a dip and bounce back above $3.200 is a buyable entry with a stop just under this level. This is acting like it wants to go lower, but it always does just before the bounce. In this case, have a trade ready for either way.

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Is this the start of the next Taper Tantrum, plus the smartest trade in HOOD

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis , Premium Analysis

Good news for the indexes, plus a nice trade in TSLA

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

It’s been a choppy week for the S&P 500 as opening waves of selling attempted to knock the index from its record-high perch. But as has been the case all year long, dip buyers are never far away and the index stubbornly remains within a handful of points of those all-time highs.

As I often remind readers, how we start a day is far less important than how we finish it. And by that metric, the last two sessions have been constructive despite Tuesday’s 0.7% giveback. Monday’s early weakness bounce decisively and ultimately finished at another record closing high. Tuesday’s follow-up dip didn’t bounce quite as hard, but it was good enough to push prices back to what would have been a record close just a few days ago.

Eventually, we will come across a dip that doesn’t bounce, but so far this rally continues defying the skeptics and we have to give it the benefit of the doubt. At this point, we have two key levels to watch, Tuesday’s intraday lows near 4,420 and recent support near 4,400. Hold above these levels and we have nothing to worry about. Fall under and we must shift to a more defensive mindset.

Wednesday’s open and subsequent price action will give us a good hint about what’s coming next. Open in the green and rally from there, then the worst is already behind us. Start the day red and crash through 4,400 support and the selling still has a ways to go. Anything in between and we take a wait-and-see, with a close near the highs being more bullish and a close near the lows being more pessimistic.

But as I said, as long as we remain above 4,400, reports of this bull’s demise are grossly exaggerated.

TSLA crashed through $700 support yesterday following a government investigation into its Autopilot feature and the selling continued on Tuesday. Savvy traders lifted their stops near $700 and were locking in nice profits as this stock rolled over Monday morning. But that was then and this is now.

What comes next for this stock? Well as obvious as this sounds, either prices bounce or they don’t. For the moment, this isn’t on solid ground until it gets back above $700, but the most adventurous can buy Tuesday’s midday bounce with a stop under the early lows. Start small, get in early, keep a nearby stop, and only add to a trade that is working.

If prices fall under Tuesday’s lows, no big deal, get out and wait for the next bounce.

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What does a bad night mean for Friday’s session? Plus when it’s safe to buy HOOD

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Thursday was a good session for the S&P 500 with the index adding 0.4% and pushing back near record highs.

But that was then and this is now. In after-hours trade, the indexes are tumbling on continued Asian weakness and U.S. futures down more than half a percent.

Is this finally the start of the long-predicted stock crash? Bears are definitely dreaming about that tonight.

But if bears have been wrong all year, what are the chances they finally get it right this time? Ummmm, yeah…..

While there is an entire night for this situation to develop, I don’t put a lot of weight in overnight futures. This is an incredibly thin market and easily swayed by small and impulsive night owls. Big money trades during the day and they couldn’t care less about what a bunch of guys in their pajamas think.

Occasionally other parts of the world lead our market, but those episodes are few and far between. Our current bull market is fueled by a huge resurgence in the U.S. economy and what’s going on in the rest of the world doesn’t matter. In fact, things are so good here foreign investors are flooding into our markets because this is where the party is happening.

No doubt Asia and Europe still have their problems, but they are not a concern for U.S. investors. If these weak futures cause our indexes to gap lower Friday morning, that gives us an excellent entry point. Wait for the early bounce and buy with a stop under those initial lows. This is an easy, low-risk trade. If the selling resumes, no big deal, we get out and buy the next bounce.

HOOD got slammed on its first day of trading, but that usually happens to most over-hyped IPOs. Expect the selling to continue for a few weeks and even months. But this will eventually bottom like it always does. And that is when investors who believe in this stock should be taking advantage of those discounts. No doubt a good trade in this stock is coming, we just need to be patient and wait for it to come to us.

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What the indexes are telling is coming next, plus the best way to trade Bitcoin’s next move

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis:

Wednesday was another do-nothing session for the S&P 500.

As dramatic as last week felt, it didn’t change anything and we are still stuck in the dog days of summer. Big money is on vacation and they are the only ones with enough firepower to move markets in a meaningful and sustainable way. The rest of these summer peanut-shooters expend all of their capital in a matter of hours and is why price moves bounce back so quickly.

As I wrote previously, it’s been a very nice, nearly 5% run this summer and a sideways consolidation is long overdue. Expect the market to grind sideways into the fall and that is when things will get more interesting. But until then, keep expectations low.

And remember, sideways includes lots of up and down that doesn’t go anywhere. Avoid the temptation to read too much into any and every gyration because most will fizzle and reverse not long after they get started.

The only thing that would change my mind is a sustained move above 4,400 or a dip under 4,250. Until then, the next few weeks is nothing more than a boring grind sideways.

Bitcoin’s pop back to $40k resistance this week has been impressive. And just as meaningful is holding those gains the last few days. Unsustainable moves tend to retreat under their own weight fairly quickly and staying at these levels tells us the market believes in this price. That said, I would be quick to lock in profits if this retreats back under $40k. Above $40k, this is a buyable breakout. Under $40k, it is stuck in a $30k to $40k trading range and we want to be sellers at the top of the range.

Which is this? Smart traders follow the market’s lead and we will have our answer soon enough.

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Why Tuesday’s loss was bullish, but it still doesn’t matter

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday was a mixed session for the S&P 500. The index opened with losses and the one-way selling knocked stocks down more than 50-points in midday trade.

The CDC reversed its guidance and now these alleged experts tell us vaccinated people should resume wearing masks in most of the country due to the pervasive Delta variant.

While this is a flip-flop from previous guidance and wearing masks is most definitely uncomfortable, this announcement was not an economic development. As we have seen over the last 12 months, mask-wearing is not a meaningful economic deterrent. The stock market rallied nearly 100% from the Covid lows while everyone was wearing masks and a return of those policies won’t make a difference to the stock market. Consumers (and investors) still have money burning a hole in their pockets and they will continue spending it regardless of their mask status.

And unsurprisingly, it didn’t take long for cooler heads in the market to prevail and the index bounced decisively off of those midday lows. Prices still closed in the red but they recovered more than half of those early losses and that resilience is considered a win for the bulls.

As I’ve been writing over the last few weeks, this remains a strong market and owners remain stubbornly confident. That is keeping a floor under prices and decisively rebutting things like last week’s selloff. But at the same time, we’ve come a long way and some sideways consolidation is long overdue.

The most important thing to remember about sideways consolidations, all of the ups and downs inside the consolidation are totally meaningless!!! Things will get more interesting this fall when big money managers return from summer vacation and start adjusting their portfolios ahead of year-end. Until then, these daily gyrations don’t matter.

The lone exception to the above analysis is if the index falls under last week’s lows. Slip under 4,250 and all bets are off. Until then, “this ain’t nothin’ but a thang.”

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The index is back to making new highs, but for how long?

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Following last week’s brief bout of volatility, the S&P 500 slipped back into its more leisurely summer mood on Monday, adding a modest 0.24%. But that was good enough for yet another record close and last week’s second thoughts are quickly fading from memory.

More important than this almost imperceptible 0.24% gain is the index continues holding last week’s bounce. False bottoms fail quickly and they most definitely don’t keep making new highs. By those measures, last week’s selloff is clearly dead and this bounce is the real deal.

But as I wrote last week, I also don’t have high expectations for big gains over the near term. It’s been a good run over the last few months and the rally will likely stall and grind sideways into the fall. That said, this is just my opinion and the market is always willing to prove me wrong. At the moment, the rally is trading well enough to be worth sticking with, just come into this trade with measured expectations.

We are a few weeks into earnings season and while we still have a lot of important companies yet to report, if there was something structurally wrong with the economy, it would have shown up already in the first wave of earnings. While we will continue to see individual winners and losers, overall, the economy looks to be in pretty good shape.

Inflation, money printing, deficits, the Delta variant, and all of the other reasons stocks should tumble from these highs are still out there. But most investors don’t seem to care and when they don’t care, I don’t care.

Knowing what we know now, selling last week’s dip at our stops was not necessary, but there was no way to know that at the time. Smart money trades everything as if it is the real deal because you know what, it often turns out to be exactly that.

That said, we actually got lucky last week. Locking in some nice profits the previous week near the highs allowed us to jump in at lower prices during last Tuesday’s bounce. While that modest exchange isn’t making anyone rich, it is hard to beat protecting ourselves from a much larger selloff and getting paid to do it!

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What this week’s volatility means for the remainder of the summer (and it isn’t what you think)

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Blink and you missed this week’s collapse and bounce-back in the S&P 500. While Monday’s tumble was the biggest one-day drop in three months, Tuesday’s rebound was equally impressive. And here we stand a few days later, right back where we started and wondering what the heck just happened?

But this pick-up volatility isn’t a surprise for readers of this blog. As I wrote over a week ago, we needed to approach this run to 4,400 with a healthy dose of skepticism and that proved to be valuable advice as the index shed nearly 150 points over the next three trading sessions:

Now to be clear, I’m not calling a top, simply pointing out the risk/reward is no longer skewed in our favor. In fact, following a 5% move over four short weeks, the risk/reward is most definitely skewed against us.

The first part of my comment, “I’m not calling a top”, is now the most relevant part for us going forward from here.

Three days later and Monday’s selloff is dead. Emotional selloffs need emotion to keep going and this one lost all of its momentum following this three-day bounce. Nervous owners are no longer nervous and that makes a world of difference when it comes to convincing people to make irrational trading decisions.

But just because owners are confident again doesn’t mean everything is back to the way it was last week. No, those with cash are still having second thoughts and reservations about chasing stocks near all-time highs.

Confident owners that don’t want to sell and gun-shy buyers afraid of these high prices is the perfect recipe for a prolonged sideways grind under 4,400 resistance. Something that will stretch out for the rest of the summer.

That said, while I don’t expect this market to go anywhere anytime soon, buying Tuesday’s bounce was still a great entry point. For anyone that got in early, they can move their stops up to their entry points, giving themselves a free trade. While the market might not go anywhere for a while, it is hard to beat the risk/reward of a free trade! (go up and we make money, go down and we get out at breakeven)

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Why bulls need to get defensive, plus an important lesson from ZM

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Wednesday was another lazy summer session for the S&P 500 as it added a barely noticeable 0.12%.

Nearly a month ago things looked far less constructive as the index crashed through 4,200 support. But four short weeks later, we are a stone’s throw from 4,400. Funny how that works.

But just like how last month’s dip was bound to bounce, this months’ rally is going to stall. That’s how this game works. Buy when other people are fearful, sell when they are greedy.

Now to be clear, I’m not calling a top, simply pointing out the risk/reward is no longer skewed in our favor. In fact, following a 5% move over four short weeks, the risk/reward is most definitely skewed against us.

Sometimes it makes sense to buy the uncertainty. Other times it makes sense to sell the confidence. And the most important thing to remember is we only make money when we sell our winners. And often the best time to sell is when we are the most reluctant to let go.

Often the most reliable trading signals are buying when you don’t want to buy and selling when you don’t want to sell. Think about that for a second. How many great trades did you miss because you were too afraid to pull the trigger? And on the other side, how many great trades did you let implode because you didn’t want to lock in some nice profits when you had them?

Maybe stocks continue higher. Maybe they stall at 4,400 for a while. Or maybe they retreat and retrench a little before the next leg higher. But no matter what they do, the odds are most definitely stacked against another 5% rally over the next four weeks.

ZM is showing us what happens when we hang on a little too long. As I wrote a couple of months ago, the bounce off of $300 was an attractive buyable entry. But after the stocks rallied more than 30%, I told readers last week this was a good time to protect those profits. And here we are a handful of days later and the stock has already given back 40% of those nice profits. Easy come easy go.

As the stock market saying goes, “bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered”. Don’t be a pig.

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The critical moves to make now that the index is challenging 4,400

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Tuesday proved to be a mixed session for the S&P 500. Early strength tagged yet another intraday record high, this time cresting 4,390. This latest move put the index within whispering distance of the psychologically significant 4,400. Unfortunately, a midday selloff prevented us from closing at those levels and instead, the index gave up a very modest third of a percent.

Two steps forward, one step back, that’s how this game works. But the thing is, a third of a percent retreat doesn’t really count as a step back, especially following a 5% rally in less than a month…

At the very least, we should expect the rate of gains to stall at 4,400 for a while. Probably even the remainder of the summer. And here’s the thing, stalling at 4,400 doesn’t mean flatlining at 4,400. There will be some choppiness in this sideways trade, but there is no reason (yet) to think any near-term weakness will trigger larger declines. Instead, this latest run to 4,400 needs to catch its breath and this will most likely transition into a sideways grind.

Quite simply, we need to dial back our expectations for the remainder of the summer. This rally has been moving in 200 point increments and challenging 4,400 puts us at the top of that next step. It is totally unreasonable to expect this rate of gains to continue non-stop to 4,600.

So what’s a trader to do? There is no reason to abandon a flat market, but it does make sense to start locking in some of these nice profits. If this pops above 4,400 sooner than expected, it is easy enough to buy back in. But as I often remind readers, we don’t make money until we sell our winners. And for the nimble swing traders in the audience, these are definitely worthwhile profits that need some pruning.

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How what airplanes I fly on affects the index’s near-term outlook, plus what TSLA is up to

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 set yet another record closing high, this time cresting 4,380.

We didn’t have any headlines driving the buying and instead, this was little more than a continuation of the market’s half-full mood. Investors continue seeing the sunny side in everything and are sweeping everything else under the rug.

How much longer can this complacency last? Well, the last meaningful dip (10%) was right before the 2020 election and that was more than half a year ago.

While bears will point to this long stretch of uninterrupted prosperity as proof the next fall is imminent. I look at it the other way. If we lasted 180 days without a meaningful pullback, what are the odds the situation changes tomorrow? (FYI, I also don’t mind getting on rickety old airplanes with rickety old pilots because if they lasted this long, they will almost certainly last one more flight. I fear the young and untested, not the battle-proven.)

No doubt this rally will stall like all of the other rallies that came before it. But don’t expect this reversal to happen in the middle of the slow summer months on zero news. Things could get far more interesting this fall as large investors return from summer vacation and start moving things around ahead of year-end. But until that happens, don’t expect much.

Keep holding for higher prices and lift our trailing stops. The worst thing that will happen to this market is stalling near 4,400. And you know what, that means a few down days are ahead of us so resist the urge to overreact to every bump in the road.

If a person fears a routine 2-3% pullback in the indexes, keep stops close and be ready to lock in some nice profits soon. If these minor gyrations don’t bother you, then keep hanging on and wait to see what comes later this fall.

TSLA popped following Elon’s testimony on Monday. He will take the stand again on Tuesday, but so far most investors like what they hear. And to be honest, a worst-case, $2 billion fine is pocket change for one of the richest men in the world. So while this makes for juicy financial press gossip, it really isn’t material to TSLA. (Some people think this will land Elon in jail. LOL)

Far more important than this trial is $600 support. Fail that and it could trigger another wave of defensive selling. But until that happens, last week’s bounce just above support is buyable. That said, this doesn’t get real interesting until it gets above recent resistance near $700, but so far, so good.

Keep holding TSLA for higher prices but always be ready to pull the plug if this falls under $600.

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Why bears keep getting this market wrong, plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us

By Jani Ziedins | Weekly Analysis

Free Weekly Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished the week up 0.4%, setting yet another record closing high. That said, the index took the long way getting there after Thursday morning devolved into the biggest down day in nearly a month.

Two steps forward, one step back. That’s the way this game works; always has, always will. The index racked up seven consecutive record closes leading into the week and obviously, a down day or two were coming. And that’s exactly what the market gave us this week.

More important than a down day or two is how most stock owners reacted to those bouts of weakness. For the most part, investors shrugged and kept holding. Which, coincidentally enough, is the same exact thing they’ve been doing all year.

While bears have been begging and pleading for a breakdown, anyone who’s been paying attention knew this selling didn’t stand much of a chance. No doubt this bull market will die like all of the other bulls that came before it, but this will bounce dozens and dozens of times before that happens.

Do smart traders go all-in on the thing that happens only once every year or two? Or do they stick with the thing that happens 50+ times in between?

Weak markets don’t keep setting record highs, so this most definitely is not a weak market. Keep following this strength higher and see where it takes us. Next up is 4,400. After that, we might be setting up for another sideways grind into the fall season.

After a slow start to 2021, the FAANG stocks are finally getting their mojo back. All of them are at record highs, with the exception of NFLX and even that laggard is doing a solid job bouncing off of $500 support.

We are coming into earnings season and baring anything shocking, we should expect this nice glide higher to continue. These stocks have reclaimed their leadership role and that is good for the entire market.

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Why complacency cannot kill this bull market, plus what comes next for the meme stocks

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 added 0.34% Tuesday, bouncing back from Monday’s modest decline. This makes it 10 up days out of the last 12 trading sessions. Not bad.

Headlines remain benign during these slower summer trading sessions. Not much is going on and the market’s half-full mood keeps shrugging off all of the reasons stocks should be lower.

And so far, there is no indication anything is going to change anytime soon. Monday’s 1% midday swoon would have broken a weaker market. Instead, most owners shrugged and kept holding. Say what you want about complacency, but when confident owners refuse to sell, that makes it really hard for any selloff to establish a toehold. And as such, the index finished Wednesday at yet another record close.

After-hours futures are down a quarter of a percent and maybe that means stocks open lower Thursday. But if a person believes a trend is more likely to continue than reverse, any near-term weakness is simply giving us another buying opportunity.

Until selling pushes the index under 4,250 support, I’m holding for higher prices.

As well as the indexes are doing, the meme stocks cannot catch a break. GME fell under $200 support and AMC was rejected by $60 resistance.

I wrote on these pages back in May that GME’s $200 breakout was buyable and the same applied to AMC’s $15 breakout. While I’m no fan of these stocks, I trade the market and when it tells me to buy, I buy. And the same applies when it tells me to sell.

No matter what you think about these stocks long-term, they have been flashing sell signs for a while. When AMC struggled with $60, that was our signal to lock in profits. The same followed GME’s failed flirtation with $300.

Remember, we only make money when we sell our winners. And guess what? If we sell too early, we can always buy back in. It is far easier to do that than it is to wish a stock back up to a level that we regret not selling at.

As for what comes next, there is zero excuse to hold GME under $200 and there is still time to lock in respectable profits in AMC before this one retreats back to support.

As for entry points, GME is buyable only if it reclaims $200 support and AMC is buyable when it breaks above $60 resistance. Until then, these are very clear sells.

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Why Monday’s index selloff was bullish, plus what ZM has been up to and what we should do with it

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Monday started off well enough for the S&P 500 with the index poking its head into record territory at the open. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and prices tumbled 1% from those early highs in a relentless, one-way selloff.

There wasn’t any news driving the morning selling and instead, this was simply a counter-reaction following seven consecutive days of new record highs, a streak that hasn’t been matched since the late ’90s.

Two steps forward, one step back, that’s all Monday’s selling was. No matter how good things are, down days are inevitable. And as expected, most owners didn’t flinch and prices bounced in midday trade because confident owners refused to succumb to the selling.

While the index ultimately finished 0.2% in the red, this intraday rebound confirms this is still a very resilient market. That means sticking with what has been working and continue holding for higher prices. The only thing that would give me second thoughts is if the selling crashes through 4,250 support. Until then, lookout above.

It’s been a while since I wrote about ZM, but that’s because this stock has been grinding away out of the spotlight. As I told readers a couple of months ago, this stock was buyable following it’s bounce off of $300 support. And look at that, two months later prices are 30% higher.

But as is always the case, we don’t make money until we sell our winners. 30% is a very worthwhile profit for two months of work and demanding more than that is getting a tad greedy. If a person really likes this stock, they can keep holding but move stops up to protect those profits. And even better, take a little off the table. Remember, we can always buy back in if this grind continues through $400. Until then, expect this stock to take a breather at current levels for a while. (Two steps forward, one step back)

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The only thing that would give me second thoughts about the SPX. Plus what’s next for FB.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 touched 4,300 momentarily Tuesday morning before slipping back into the 4,290s in afternoon trade.

There is nothing wrong with a little give-back following a push to a psychologically significant level. While 4,300 isn’t conventional resistance in terms of being an area of prior overhead supply, it can act like resistance simply because people intuitively think in round numbers. And after a nice run like this, it is natural for people to start wondering if this has gone too far?

Initially, the market was attracted to 4,300 because it was where everyone was looking. But once we got there, it turned into a popular spot for like-minded people to start taking profits. And that’s what let the air out of our tires this afternoon. But in reality, this was nothing more than the market moving in waves; two steps forward, one step back. Don’t all yourself to read anything more into it than that.

This remains a half-full market and I don’t see anything suggesting the market’s mood is changing.

(That said, a bigger selloff Wednesday that pushes the index back to 4,250 and we need to reevaluate our outlook. Bounce off of 4,250 and everything is back to normal. Finish at the daily lows and more near-term pain is ahead. But until something fundamentally changes, every dip is a buying opportunity.)

High keeps getting higher and FB is living proof of that.

Things didn’t look so good for the company last fall given all the threats of regulation, breakups, and backlash from the way the company handled the election. But as is often the case, the market knows what the headlines will be long before they are announced. This stock bounced off the lows last winter and it’s been rallying ever since. And the cherry on top is this week a judge threw out the FCC’s antitrust lawsuit.

While a person that waited for these bullish headlines missed a whole lot of upside this year, there is little reason to think this stock has topped here. The trend is higher and we always give the benefit of the doubt to the trend.

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Is 4,300 finally too high? Plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free-After Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished Monday at the highest levels in history and the index sits a few points shy of 4,300.

As I’ve been saying for a while, high tends to get even higher and that’s definitely the case with this market.

We will eventually reach a point that is too high (because we always do), but cynics have been calling for a top at 3,800, 3,900, 4k, 4,100, 4,200, and soon to be 4,300. Is there any reason to believe they will be right this time?

That said, this rally could very easily stall at 4,300, but there are not any signs this is going to happen. And until we see evidence in the price action that the trend is changing, we stick with what has been working.

This rally will die like all of the others that came before it, but that cannot happen as long as this bull market keeps making higher highs. Until something changes, keep giving this market the benefit of the doubt.

The FAANG stocks are finally getting their act together after lagging behind all spring. FB and GOOGL have been leading the charge with both making record highs for a while. And AAPL and AMZN are not far behind. NFLX has been the lone laggard, but even that one is showing life following its latest buyable bounce off of $500 support.

Now that the FAANG stocks are trading well again, look for these highfliers to start leading the rest of the market higher.

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Why I’m sticking with this complacent and overly bullish rally

By Jani Ziedins | Weekly Analysis

Free Weekly Analysis: 

Seven days ago the S&P 500 was in midst of a meltdown. The index shed nearly 2% that week and Friday finished at the weekly lows. And more than that, the index crashed through 4,200 support and undercut the 50dma to put a cherry on top. Could things go into the weekend any worse?

What was this week’s follow-up act? The biggest up week since February. Funny how that works.

One week down, the next week up. That’s been the tale of the tape all year and nothing changed this time. And more than just bounce back, the index finished this Friday at the highest levels in history.

Everyone knows markets cannot go up every single day, yet these same people overreact to every bump in the road. But here’s the thing, weak markets don’t keep setting record highs. Until further notice, this is a strong market and it deserves the benefit of the doubt. Every dip is buyable until the market tells us otherwise. If the selling continued Monday, then we would have taken that more seriously. But stocks popped 1.4% Monday and the rally was fully back on.

I firmly believe in stop losses, but these are not sell-and-forget triggers. As soon as we get out, we start looking for the next entry point. And this time, if the market dumped us out last week, it gave us the go-ahead signal Monday morning and the rally was back on.

As is often the case, high tends to get even higher and this market is not letting anything hold it back. Investors are in a half-full mood and they are not allowing negative headlines to weigh them down.

We are smack dab in the middle of the summer trading doldrums. But as I have been writing for a while, boring is almost always good for stocks. Something more interesting will come along, probably later this fall, but until then, high will most likely keep getting higher a few points at a time and the psychologically significant 4,300 level is next on the list.

While I wish I could come up with more thoughtful and insightful analysis, the truth is this is a simple market and it doesn’t require complex mental gymnastics to figure out what comes next. It won’t always be this easy, but until something changes, stay the course.

Without a doubt, complacency and bullishness are off the charts, but I trade the market and right now it keeps telling me it wants to go higher. So that’s what I’m sticking with.

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