Jul 09

Why bears keep getting this market wrong, plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us

By Jani Ziedins | Weekly Analysis

Free Weekly Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished the week up 0.4%, setting yet another record closing high. That said, the index took the long way getting there after Thursday morning devolved into the biggest down day in nearly a month.

Two steps forward, one step back. That’s the way this game works; always has, always will. The index racked up seven consecutive record closes leading into the week and obviously, a down day or two were coming. And that’s exactly what the market gave us this week.

More important than a down day or two is how most stock owners reacted to those bouts of weakness. For the most part, investors shrugged and kept holding. Which, coincidentally enough, is the same exact thing they’ve been doing all year.

While bears have been begging and pleading for a breakdown, anyone who’s been paying attention knew this selling didn’t stand much of a chance. No doubt this bull market will die like all of the other bulls that came before it, but this will bounce dozens and dozens of times before that happens.

Do smart traders go all-in on the thing that happens only once every year or two? Or do they stick with the thing that happens 50+ times in between?

Weak markets don’t keep setting record highs, so this most definitely is not a weak market. Keep following this strength higher and see where it takes us. Next up is 4,400. After that, we might be setting up for another sideways grind into the fall season.

After a slow start to 2021, the FAANG stocks are finally getting their mojo back. All of them are at record highs, with the exception of NFLX and even that laggard is doing a solid job bouncing off of $500 support.

We are coming into earnings season and baring anything shocking, we should expect this nice glide higher to continue. These stocks have reclaimed their leadership role and that is good for the entire market.

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Jul 07

Why complacency cannot kill this bull market, plus what comes next for the meme stocks

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 added 0.34% Tuesday, bouncing back from Monday’s modest decline. This makes it 10 up days out of the last 12 trading sessions. Not bad.

Headlines remain benign during these slower summer trading sessions. Not much is going on and the market’s half-full mood keeps shrugging off all of the reasons stocks should be lower.

And so far, there is no indication anything is going to change anytime soon. Monday’s 1% midday swoon would have broken a weaker market. Instead, most owners shrugged and kept holding. Say what you want about complacency, but when confident owners refuse to sell, that makes it really hard for any selloff to establish a toehold. And as such, the index finished Wednesday at yet another record close.

After-hours futures are down a quarter of a percent and maybe that means stocks open lower Thursday. But if a person believes a trend is more likely to continue than reverse, any near-term weakness is simply giving us another buying opportunity.

Until selling pushes the index under 4,250 support, I’m holding for higher prices.

As well as the indexes are doing, the meme stocks cannot catch a break. GME fell under $200 support and AMC was rejected by $60 resistance.

I wrote on these pages back in May that GME’s $200 breakout was buyable and the same applied to AMC’s $15 breakout. While I’m no fan of these stocks, I trade the market and when it tells me to buy, I buy. And the same applies when it tells me to sell.

No matter what you think about these stocks long-term, they have been flashing sell signs for a while. When AMC struggled with $60, that was our signal to lock in profits. The same followed GME’s failed flirtation with $300.

Remember, we only make money when we sell our winners. And guess what? If we sell too early, we can always buy back in. It is far easier to do that than it is to wish a stock back up to a level that we regret not selling at.

As for what comes next, there is zero excuse to hold GME under $200 and there is still time to lock in respectable profits in AMC before this one retreats back to support.

As for entry points, GME is buyable only if it reclaims $200 support and AMC is buyable when it breaks above $60 resistance. Until then, these are very clear sells.

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Jul 06

Why Monday’s index selloff was bullish, plus what ZM has been up to and what we should do with it

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

Monday started off well enough for the S&P 500 with the index poking its head into record territory at the open. Unfortunately, that was as good as it got and prices tumbled 1% from those early highs in a relentless, one-way selloff.

There wasn’t any news driving the morning selling and instead, this was simply a counter-reaction following seven consecutive days of new record highs, a streak that hasn’t been matched since the late ’90s.

Two steps forward, one step back, that’s all Monday’s selling was. No matter how good things are, down days are inevitable. And as expected, most owners didn’t flinch and prices bounced in midday trade because confident owners refused to succumb to the selling.

While the index ultimately finished 0.2% in the red, this intraday rebound confirms this is still a very resilient market. That means sticking with what has been working and continue holding for higher prices. The only thing that would give me second thoughts is if the selling crashes through 4,250 support. Until then, lookout above.

It’s been a while since I wrote about ZM, but that’s because this stock has been grinding away out of the spotlight. As I told readers a couple of months ago, this stock was buyable following it’s bounce off of $300 support. And look at that, two months later prices are 30% higher.

But as is always the case, we don’t make money until we sell our winners. 30% is a very worthwhile profit for two months of work and demanding more than that is getting a tad greedy. If a person really likes this stock, they can keep holding but move stops up to protect those profits. And even better, take a little off the table. Remember, we can always buy back in if this grind continues through $400. Until then, expect this stock to take a breather at current levels for a while. (Two steps forward, one step back)

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Jun 29

The only thing that would give me second thoughts about the SPX. Plus what’s next for FB.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free After-Hours Analysis: 

The S&P 500 touched 4,300 momentarily Tuesday morning before slipping back into the 4,290s in afternoon trade.

There is nothing wrong with a little give-back following a push to a psychologically significant level. While 4,300 isn’t conventional resistance in terms of being an area of prior overhead supply, it can act like resistance simply because people intuitively think in round numbers. And after a nice run like this, it is natural for people to start wondering if this has gone too far?

Initially, the market was attracted to 4,300 because it was where everyone was looking. But once we got there, it turned into a popular spot for like-minded people to start taking profits. And that’s what let the air out of our tires this afternoon. But in reality, this was nothing more than the market moving in waves; two steps forward, one step back. Don’t all yourself to read anything more into it than that.

This remains a half-full market and I don’t see anything suggesting the market’s mood is changing.

(That said, a bigger selloff Wednesday that pushes the index back to 4,250 and we need to reevaluate our outlook. Bounce off of 4,250 and everything is back to normal. Finish at the daily lows and more near-term pain is ahead. But until something fundamentally changes, every dip is a buying opportunity.)

High keeps getting higher and FB is living proof of that.

Things didn’t look so good for the company last fall given all the threats of regulation, breakups, and backlash from the way the company handled the election. But as is often the case, the market knows what the headlines will be long before they are announced. This stock bounced off the lows last winter and it’s been rallying ever since. And the cherry on top is this week a judge threw out the FCC’s antitrust lawsuit.

While a person that waited for these bullish headlines missed a whole lot of upside this year, there is little reason to think this stock has topped here. The trend is higher and we always give the benefit of the doubt to the trend.

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Jun 28

Is 4,300 finally too high? Plus what the FAANG stocks are telling us.

By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis

Free-After Hours Analysis:

The S&P 500 finished Monday at the highest levels in history and the index sits a few points shy of 4,300.

As I’ve been saying for a while, high tends to get even higher and that’s definitely the case with this market.

We will eventually reach a point that is too high (because we always do), but cynics have been calling for a top at 3,800, 3,900, 4k, 4,100, 4,200, and soon to be 4,300. Is there any reason to believe they will be right this time?

That said, this rally could very easily stall at 4,300, but there are not any signs this is going to happen. And until we see evidence in the price action that the trend is changing, we stick with what has been working.

This rally will die like all of the others that came before it, but that cannot happen as long as this bull market keeps making higher highs. Until something changes, keep giving this market the benefit of the doubt.

The FAANG stocks are finally getting their act together after lagging behind all spring. FB and GOOGL have been leading the charge with both making record highs for a while. And AAPL and AMZN are not far behind. NFLX has been the lone laggard, but even that one is showing life following its latest buyable bounce off of $500 support.

Now that the FAANG stocks are trading well again, look for these highfliers to start leading the rest of the market higher.

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