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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
The trade war is over and the S&P 500 surged nearly one whole percent!
Well, not exactly. The trade war is nowhere near over but Trump tweeted, “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China.” That kicked off this morning’s explosive rally. Well, calling it explosive might be overstating the situation a tad, but it was a good day and the index closed at all-time highs.
Anyone hoping for more is sadly disappointed by this somewhat muted reaction. But this shouldn’t surprise those of us that have been paying attention. Yesterday I wrote that the stock market was growing tired of trade war headlines and deal or no deal, we shouldn’t expect a move greater than 1% in either direction. Today we got the strongest indication yet of a deal and the index surged a measly 0.86%.
More important than deal or no deal is how well the market has been performing this quarter. Despite the relentless barrage of negative headlines, stocks continue pushing into record highs. While some people claim the market is complacent and that complacency precedes the fall, the thing most people fail to mention is complacency can last for a really, really long time. When confident owners refuse to sell, supply stays tight and prices remain firm. This will end badly at some point because it always does, but this is not that point. In the meantime enjoy the ride.
As for what happens in January, I have thoughts on 2020 but will save those for another post. Sign up for FREE Email Alerts so you don’t miss those thoughts.
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Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM
By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
Free After-Hours Analysis:
Despite what the naysayers claim, the S&P 500 continues defying gravity and is hovering near all-time highs. This is even more impressive since the next round of tariff hikes are scheduled to take effect this Sunday. The list of reasons this market should be down is a mile long, yet here we stand.
Bears claim it is only time before the crowd realizes how bad the situation really is. But here is the thing, none of these bearish claims are secret. Everyone knows about the slowing global economy. The trade war between the world’s two largest economies has been raging for nearly two years. Impeachment, does anyone actually care? Everything is out there and the crowd already knows about it. There is no waiting for the other shoe to drop, the shoe already dropped. And most importantly, no one cared.
We trade what the market does, not what we think it should do. If this market doesn’t want to go down, we only have two choices, jump aboard, or get out of the way. Fighting it is only going to get yourself killed.
As for this weekend’s trade war escalation, the market has been growing bored of these headlines and every escalation and resolution has been received with a smaller and smaller reaction. Deal or no deal, it really doesn’t matter. We pop 1% if we get a deal, we dip 1% if we don’t. The days of five and ten percent moves are long behind us. The people who fear the trade war sold a long time ago and confident dip buyers took their place. If these dip buyers were not bothered by Trade War 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, or 4.0, chances are 5.0 won’t bother them either.
What’s a good trade worth to you?
How about avoiding a loss?
For less than $1/day, have actionable analysis and a trading plan delivered to your inbox every day during market hours
Follow Jani on Twitter @crackedmarket
Tags: S&P 500 Nasdaq $SPY $SPX $QQQ $IWM
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