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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Analysis
The S&P 500 added modest gains Tuesday, extending Monday’s rebound for a second day. That leaves us a couple of points from all-time highs. Volume was average, but not bad for this lull between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
In last Wednesday’s free blog post, I warned readers to be wary of the market’s pathetic afternoon fizzles.
“Today’s bullish news was more than enough to unleash a flood of buying when we opened near record highs. If the market was a coiled spring ready to explode higher, this would have triggered that move. Instead we hit our head on the ceiling and fell into tail-spin. There are few things more ominous than a market that cannot rally on good news because it tells us we are running out of new buyers.”
“Don’t get me wrong, not ready to call the bull market dead, but this week’s poor price-action says we are not ready to extend the breakout into record highs just yet. The market was getting a tad frothy following the straight-up move from the November lows. A step-back here would be a healthy part of building a sustainable foundation for the next leg higher. A high-volume dip to 2,180 would flush a lot of excess enthusiasm from the market. If prices bounce and reclaim 2,200 not long after, that tells us bulls are still in control.”
And that is exactly what happened.
While it was nice to call that move, attaboys don’t pay the bills. The more pressing question is what happens now that we returned to all-time highs. Do we resume the prior uptrend, or are we getting sucked into another sideways trading range? This is a critical distinction because it is the difference between buying the breakout, or selling the top of a trading range.
If last week’s selloff was driven by bad news and we recovered those losses this quickly, that would be a strong buy signal. Shrugging off bad news so easily tells us the market is ready to fly. But that’s not what happened. In fact the opposite happened. We fizzled on bullish news. Private payroll numbers were strong and oil prices popped when OPEC finally agreed to production caps. Even though everyone was cheering the news, the market couldn’t make any more headway because everyone was already fully invested. Unfortunately it takes more than a two-day dip to fix supply-and-demand problems like that. Tuesday’s smaller gains suggest this week’s rebound is slowing down, not getting ready to take flight.
That said, we need to be careful we don’t read too much into what could be an innocent gyration. Was last week’s fizzle telling us the November rally is running out of steam? Or was it a normal step-back on our way higher. Lucky for us the market will give us the answer over the next couple of days. If we hit our head again, supply is a serious problem and we will trade sideways into year-end. On the other hand, if we break 2,220 and don’t look back, last week was little more than an anomaly and the chase higher into year-end is on. Trade accordingly.
Last week’s fizzle makes it feel like we are falling into a trading range to close the year and is how I’m positioned, but the trader in me hopes we resume the breakout because it is more profitable to ride a wave higher.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Analysis
Wednesday morning the S&P500 rallied to all-time highs shortly after the open. Oil popped 10% when OPEC finally agreed to cap production and the ADP payroll number came in far stronger than expected. But the enthusiasm was short-lived and the market retreated from those highs in a relentless selloff that saw us close under the psychologically important 2,200 level. Volume was off the chart and only exceeded in recent months by the two-trading days following Trump’s unexpected election.
While November had a heck of run from the pre-election lows, this week’s poor price-action has been far less confidence inspiring. We rallied to record highs during the low-volume Thanksgiving week, but the market has been behaving poorly ever since. The last three-days has seen significant givebacks in the final hours of trading. That tells us big-money investors are far more inclined to take profits near all-time highs than they are to add new money and chase prices higher.
I’ve been quite bullish and expected the market to rally into year-end. We’ve been consolidating since mid-summer and the market refused multiple invitations to breakdown. When the market doesn’t go down on bad news, look out above. But this morning’s pathetic price-action forced me to reevaluate that outlook. Today’s bullish news was more than enough to unleash a flood of buying when we opened near record highs. If the market was a coiled spring ready to explode higher, this would have triggered that move. Instead we hit our head on the ceiling and fell into tail-spin. There are few things more ominous than a market that cannot rally on good news because it tells us we are running out of new buyers.
It looks like we’re stuck in a market that won’t break down on bearish news and won’t rally on bullish news. Owners are stubbornly clinging to their stocks and won’t sell negative headlines and price-action while those with cash have zero interest in chasing prices near record highs no matter how “safe” the market feels. Entrenched views like this are what trading ranges are made of. The longer we stay inside the range, the more stubborn both sides become. But this building pressure also means when the dam finally breaks, the resulting move will be swift and decisive.
Don’t get me wrong, not ready to call the bull market dead, but this week’s poor price-action says we are not ready to extend the breakout into record highs just yet. The market was getting a tad frothy following the straight-up move from the November lows. A step-back here would be a healthy part of building a sustainable foundation for the next leg higher. A high-volume dip to 2,180 would flush a lot of excess enthusiasm from the market. If prices bounce and reclaim 2,200 not long after, that tells us bulls are still in control. On the other hand, if the losses accelerate through 2,180 and we cannot find a bottom, the 200-dma and 2,100 are very much in play. Right now the pressure is on Bulls to prove they are still in control and that is what we need to watch over the next few trading days.
I took profits defensively this morning when we couldn’t add to the early gains, but I am more than ready to jump on the next trade when it shows itself. The price-action over the next couple of days will tell me if that is shorting this weakness or buying the dip.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
The S&P500 poked its head above 2,200 for the first time in history. This is a level we’ve been flirting with since mid-summer and while it took nearly half a year, we finally did it. Now that we’re here, question is if this rally through the upper end of the trading range is the real deal, or if it will fizzle like every other failed breakout over the last six-months.
The GOP takeover continues to be the fuel propelling this 100-point rebound. While there was pre-election apprehension over what a Trump presidency would look like, so far investors are clearly excited about the prospects of a business friendly administration. This is a significant and unexpected development that has the makings to be the catalyst that drives us out of this trading range.
While this week’s price-action has been constructive, we have to remember this is a holiday shortened week. Big institutions know volume is typically light and they cannot move big blocks of shares, meaning they made most of their important trades last week. Most of the trading going on this week comes from smaller and less meaningful traders. Without big money’s guiding hand, these little guys throw their weight around and can boost volatility, but their limited size means they don’t have the money to drive directional moves. And so while I like this week’s price-action, we won’t know the market’s true intentions until next week.
That said, it was encouraging to see how the market responded Tuesday on an intraday basis. We opened above 2,200 but cynical profit-taking quickly pushed us under this psychologically important level. But rather than trigger a wave of follow-on selling, supply dried up and we rebounded back to the opening highs. That tells us most owners are more inclined to continue holding than take profits. Their patience and conviction is keeping supply tight and propping up prices. We’ve seen a lot of churn during this half-year consolidation with nervous and pessimistic owners being replaced by buyers expecting higher prices. This core group of owners has ignored every excuse to breakdown all year and it was inevitable we would make a run to all-time highs. Now that we’re here, there is little reason to think they will give up now. Smart traders keep doing what is working and right now that is betting on the market.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Analysis:
The S&P500 closed within a few points of all-time highs Thursday as the post-election rebound continues. We survived a lot of bearish headlines this year and no matter what they cynics claim, the market isn’t listening. While there is a chance we could kiss all-time highs and tumble back into the heart of the trading range, the more likely outcome is breaking out and continue higher.
The market enjoys humiliating the largest number of traders at any given juncture. Stumbling from here means patient bulls with piles of profits will give a small portion back. That doesn’t sound very humiliating to me. On the other hand, smashing all-time highs will send bears scrambling for cover. Shorts will be forced to cover and anyone out of the market will start second-guessing their decision as they watch everyone around them raking in profits. It’s pretty obvious which side has more to lose here.
We’ve been flirting with 2,200 for nearly half a year. The longer we hold near this level, the more likely it is we will break through. Unsustainable levels are by definition unsustainable. If we were going to crash in a hopeless ball of flames, it would have happened by now. This resilience tells us there is a lot of support behind these prices. If all of the headlines we encountered in 2016 couldn’t break this bull, it is really hard to imagine something coming along in the final weeks of the year that will break it. The smart money is clearly betting on this bull, not against it.
Right or wrong, when confident owners don’t sell, supply stays tight and prices remain firm. Bears can argue until they are blue in the face, but it all matters for naught if they cannot convince owners to sell. I’m not sure what 2017 holds, but things look good for the market going into year-end. Fight it at your peril.
Jani
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By Jani Ziedins | End of Day Analysis
End of Day Update:
It’s been a week since Trump was elected president and the market is holding up amazingly well. Today’s gains puts the S&P500 within striking distance of all-time highs.
Reality turns out to be a long way from the pre-election consensus that a surprise Trump win would roil global markets. I’m not criticising because I also assumed Trump’s win would unnerve investors. Everyone assumed it was Hillary’s election to lose and markets hate surprises. Overnight stock futures traded that way when they cratered 5% as Trump captured key swing-states, but by the time we opened Wednesday morning most of those losses vanished and we quickly traded in the green.
While Trump’s win was largely unexpected, the market likes the GOP’s more business friendly approach to governing and is why stocks reacted positively in the aftermath. One of the most powerful signals in trading is when the market does the opposite of what everyone expects. Rather than sell Trump’s surprise win, the market told us this was a buying opportunity. And the last few days of support has confirmed that signal. The question is what happens now that we are pushing up against the upper end of the summer’s trading range.
We’ve been trading sideways for months because nothing new was happening. The GOP capturing all three branches of government is definitely something new. Reforming corporate taxes is on the GOP’s agenda as is a tax holiday so corporations can repatriate their overseas cash. Both of these will boost profits and dividends, and thus stock prices. At least that is why people are in a buying mood.
We are coming up on significant resistance near 2,190 as we approach all-time highs. If we break through, expect us to keep going into year-end as underweight money managers are forced to chase. If the market cannot attract new buyers at all-time highs, demand is becoming a serious problem and that doesn’t bode well for next year. At this point I give the edge to bulls because countless headlines have been unable to break this market. When owners refuse to sell, it doesn’t matter what the headlines are.
Jani
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