Fundamental or technical buying?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily @ 11:25 EDT

Stocks opened strong this morning as both the S&P500 and NASDAQ broke above their 50dma.  But the real question is if this price action is driven by fundamentals or technicals?  Has the market’s outlook on the future materially changed, or is this simply structural buying as we are passing key levels, triggering autopilot buying from both bulls and bears?  One is a sustainable phenomena, the other is temporary and will quickly run out of steam.

No doubt my judgement could be clouded by bias, but it seems not much light has been shed on the future protects of the economy or Euro justifying a run up in price.  But we crossed several key technical levels that could explain the buying activity.  My attitude at times like this is I would rather be out of the market wishing I was in, than in the market wishing I was out.  Profit opportunities are like a city bus, miss one and another one will be along any minute, but losses are forever.

Two other aspects that could be driving the market is the Euro is staging a monster move today, weakening the USD.  Over the last few years a weak dollar has often boosted the equities market.  The other aspect is the Fed is meeting today and tomorrow and many traders are hoping for a QE3 announcement.  But personally I don’t expect the Fed to act because QE3 is the last arrow left in their quiver and using it now simply to please equity investors doesn’t seem like a smart move on their part.

While my analysis of the market tends is a bit unconventional, a disciplined CAN SLIM trader should be testing the water with smaller positions from proper buy points, knowing his discipline and rules will minimize any losses if this FTD fails.  Each individual trader needs to stick to their game plan regardless of what other people are doing around them.  I’m not buying this FTD and could easily end up chasing the market above here, but that is what I feel comfortable with.

Stay safe

Follow Through Day?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:56 EDT

IBD called Friday’s gains a Follow Through Day (FTD) on the NASDAQ.  As many of you can guess, I’m not putting much faith in this recent FTD since we are nearing the upper end of the summer’s potential trading range.  Personally I’m going to close out my long index trade today and start looking for a good place to enter a short position.  The market broke solidly above May 29th’s high on Friday, sending shorts running for cover and no doubt the Greek vote will tempt all the Johny-come-latelys to jump in and pick up the tab for the rest of us.  We could rally a bit more and that is why I will wait to initiate a short, but I think the top is near.  Maybe we poke our head above the 50dma before heading lower, but it doesn’t need to happen.

Over the weekend the big economic news was Greece keeping the pro-bailout parties in control.  Seems in the previous election the citizens were voting with their hearts and sending a message to the leading parties that they are on thin ice.  But when push came to shove, they cast the final ballot with their head, fearing the risk of the abyss if they chose to break from the Euro.  But what should have been great news was met with skepticism at today’s open as the markets traded lower out of the gate.  No doubt many traders remembered last Monday’s sell-the-news on Spain’s bailout package and were afraid to see the same thing occur on this good news.  But the reality is this vote did nothing but maintain the previous status quo as the Greeks continue the inability to repay even their lowered debt obligations.  Of course this election does provide the opportunity for European leaders to structure a more orderly resolution to these problems.

As stated earlier, I have zero confidence in this FTD.  It took advantage of a quadruple witching where various futures and options contracts expire, leading to a spike in volume as all these derivatives are closed or rolled over.  Further, the 1.3% gain on the NASDAQ was on the light side for a typical FTD.  And of course we are at the upper end of a potential trading range.  But this is simply my take on the market.  WON’s advice is to buy every FTD because you can’t be sure which ones will work and which will fail.  But don’t jump in with reckless abandon just because IBD is saying we are in a Confirmed Uptrend.    The best course of action is to look for new breakouts or legitimate buy-points in individual stocks and then only initiate 1/2 positions in one or two names.  If the market continues higher, add positions in the follow on strength.  If the market noses over, you can close out your trial positions for a small loss and wait for the next FTD.

At present, the market recovered early weakness and is trading flat to up in midday trade.  This is blunting the fear of a major sell-off like we saw last Monday after Spain’s pop.  But it also doesn’t show a lot of excitement over the Greek elections that removed a major point of uncertainty.  This is demonstrating a certain level of both support and caution at these levels.  But my takeaway is the market’s spring is not coiled for a pop higher as we would have seen a lot more upside today if it were.  This shows that we might be getting extended given the sentiment in the market.

As for individual stocks, IBD’s Stocks on the Move from investors.com is showing several stocks breaking out or bouncing off their 50dma in large volume.  This should provide a bull several choices if they want to buy this FTD.  But remember, keep your initial buys at 50% of your normal position size and add as the market and individual stock’s show constructive price action.

Stay safe

Stuck in trading range

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

Sorry about missing Wednesday’s and Thrusday’s posts, I’m down in Mexico and I mistakenly assumed it would be easier to get on line than it has been.  I’ll be back home and back to a regular schedule by Monday.

The indexes continue trading in a range of 1306 to 1335; up, down, and back up again.  We’ll see how the market trades today as Thursday’s price action pushed up to the upper end of this range and the futures are pointing to a slightly higher open.  Could this be the day we break through resistance and trigger all those stoplosses?  Or will the swing traders use the technical resistance at these levels to push us back down?  As I shared earlier, there is just too much fertile trading due to stop-losses above 1335 for the market not to at least poke its head above to trigger all those comissions for the market makers.  But regardless of these minor moves, I continue expecting the market will nose over shortly after breaking resistance.  There is simply too much headline risk at this time to expect we could rally without looking back.  Not that it will be bad news that causes us to head lower, it is simply that the bulls pushed us as high as they could, and the market will turn over because of a lack of buying.  No doubt there will be a headline that triggers the move lower, but remember, every day there is a plethora of both good and bad news, it is simply that the market choses to obsess about sone side and ignore the other depending on sentiment and buying power.  So in that regard, the news doesn’t drive the markets nearly as much as it provides and excuse or justification for the market to move in a way it is predisposed to move.

LULU is having a tough run lately, dropping to the 200dma.  Is this simply another shakeout like we had last year, or the end of the run?  It will be interesting to see how well it holds up.  Often I find stocks that are heavily shorted are overvalued, but the trap mose traders who trade on valuation fall into is they most often get in too early.  So I have little doubt LULU will imploed at some point just like KROC did, it is simply a matter of when.  TTypically the way it works is when everyone is talking about how overvalued it is, the stock defies gravity and heads higher.  It is only aafter all the shorts have been demoralized and given up that the stock finally noses over.  It will be interesting to see if LULU has reached that point since I so little mention of it in the market coverage anymore.

One last comment, no doubt this post is riddled with errors, please forgive me because I amm doing this on an iPad and it isn’t easy to edit these posts.

Stay safe.

Support after yesterday’s reversal

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 1:50 EDT

The markets had a terrible finish yesterday, turning a nice opening gain into a material loss.  Yesterday was a boilerplate “buy the rumor, sell the news” as the markets opened higher on Spain and then sold off aggressively with a 2%+ intra-day decline.

Today the markets struggled for direction early, but in late morning recovered some of yesterday’s sell-off.  What does this mean going forward?  It is hard to say because we are stuck in the middle of the trading range and things are more balanced as they could tip either way.  Maybe it is a tad lower to retest 1280, or higher to push up against the 50dma at 1350.  At 1315, we are smack dab in the middle of this range

Yesterday’s sell-off no doubt tempted a lot of shorts to jump back in the market with stop-losses just above yesterday’s high.  This adds even more fuel to a potential short-squeeze above 1335.  Like I said yesterday, I think a near-term move above this region is inevitable; the only question is if it happens before or after we test the 200dma.  Did yesterday’s sell-off clear out enough longs and temp shorts to set the market up for a contrarian move higher?  Or are there a few too many bulls left hanging on by their fingertips that need to get shaken out first?

As you can tell from the ambiguous commentary above, it is easier to anticipate market moves when the markets and sentiment are lopsided.  When the market is in the middle of the range and sentiment is mixed, there is far less clarity.  My earlier analysis expected a move up to the 50dma before turning lower, so if I had to call it one way or the other, that is what I would chose.  But at this point it is simply a coin-flip.  Of course this is nothing more than splitting hairs over a couple percent in the indexes either way.  Hardly a material matter unless you are a too-big-to-fail investment bank cranked up on 30 to 1 leverage.  The real story will come later this summer when the markets are finally ready to break out of this range.

Individual stocks continue being a mixed bag as some are holding up, others are breaking down; some are above the 50dma and others below.  The thing about CAM SLIM investing it is it a calm weather sport.  Much like sailing, who wants to go out when the water is choppy, the wind is swirling, and clouds are threatening?  Just like sailing, investing is far easier on nice sunny days with a predictable and constant breeze.  Most leading stocks are volatile and it is best to only ride them under the most favorable conditions.  No doubt we are giving up potential gains from stocks making new highs, but to be successful, it isn’t just about picking winners, it is also about also balancing risk and reward.  To win at this over the long-term, we must make more money than we lose; sticking to the best conditions moves the odds in our favor.

Stay safe

Sell the news?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 2:09 EDT

Markets opened higher on Spain’s bailout, but gave up all those gains out of the gate.  We are trading just a tad in the red after finding support at the 1320 level.  Was this fade the final gasps of last week’s bounce?  Or do we still have some upside left before turning lower?  Potential upside is about 30 S&P points and downside is about 50 points.  Surely it is not a good risk/reward for initiating a new position and a reasonable time for swing traders to think about reeling in profits.

It is helpful to see the EU lend Spain a lifeline, but it is just a temporary patch to keep them afloat.  And no doubt that is why pros used the Spain pop to sell more shares.  Last week a lot of shorts got squeezed as we witnessed the best weekly gain in months.  Today’s price peaked at resistance from May 29th’s reversal, but for me, that was a little too clean and predictable.  With all the buy orders above 1330 between breakout buyers and shorts getting squeezed, it seems we are bound to push through that region, if for no other reason than to trigger a flurry of transactions so market makers can pay their kids private school tuition.  But that doesn’t mean we can’t trade back down to the 200dma first to shake out all the swing traders and premature bulls.  Remember, it is always about hurting the greatest number of people at any given time.    Where we go from here depends on who is more at risk, the bears of bulls. Last week flushed out a lot of bears, meaning it could be the bulls turn next.

But all of this is splitting hairs.  The overriding theme is we are range bound and will most likely stay that way for another month or two.  No reason for bulls to go long or bears to go short, as any directional traders will get chopped up when each breakout or breakdown quickly reverses.  The best trade continues being the swing trade; buy the dips, sell the rallies.  Any CAN SLIM trader should relax and take some time off.  Keep a casual eye on the markets for a turning point, but no need to obsess daily over a range bound market.

Stay safe

Finding support for Wednesday’s gains

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 2:17 EDT

Friday opened slightly lower, but rose above breakeven after the first hour of trade.  Support at this level is encouraging given the way yesterday gave up strong gains to finish flat.  After Wednesday’s monster performance, it seems both bulls and bears are afraid to stick their neck out and the market is left struggling for direction as both sides are waiting for a sign one way or the other.  As always, it hard to pick the path of least resistance, does the downtrend continue, or has it gotten oversold and we are ready for a bounce?  Statistically speaking, a trend is more likely to continue than reverse simply because there are many continuation days and only one reversal.  But as I shared in previous posts, pessimism is consuming a large number of market participants.  When you get too many people thinking the same way, it skews the market and creates an imbalance that is bound to snap back at some point.  Of course the thing to be careful of is imbalances often go further and longer and than any contrarian or cynic expects.

But as I have written this, the logjam broke to the upside, at least for the moment.  We’ll see if this rally can last through the day or if it unravels like yesterday.  The market has a propensity toward hurting and humiliating as many people as possible.  Given the large number of bears, they are feeling the most heat, meaning we could continue a bit higher before they are fully demoralized.  After which point the market will finally turn back down.  The market has to first convince you you are wrong before finally proving you right.

Seems Greece has already fallen off the edge of the earth since it is hardly receiving a mention in the press as Spain has become the new favorite obsession.  Here is a novel solution to the Euro problem, rather than kick Greece or any of the other battered PIIGS out of the Euro, why not turn the tables and boot Germany out?  Germany is the lone roadblock pushing economic crushing austerity and monetary restraint while shooting down any mention of a joint Euro bond.  Get rid of Germany and the tone of these Euro meetings would change dramatically.  No doubt a Euro ex-Germany would be a weaker currency, but the devaluation would be a huge boon for exports and tourism for the bulk of the continent, and a diversified Euro bond would keep lending rates under control.  The problem is most of the continent is falling into recession while Germany is booming, creating an economic dichotomy where the fiscal and monetary needs of each region are in direct conflict.  Most of Europe needs easy money and stimulus to revive their ailing economies, while Germany needs tightening to keep its economy from overheating.  The other benefit of removing Germany is there will be far fewer issues with bank runs as the new Deutschmark will be a coveted currency, not a shunned one like a new Drachma or Peseta.  While there is virtually zero chance this will happen, it could be a far more tenable solution for the region than crushing and removing the weaker countries one by one.

FRAN daily @ 2:17 EDT

FRAN is showing the risks associated with shorting a high flier as it is popping over 20% today on earnings.  That’s gota hurt anyone shorting this name since it’s break under the 50 and 200 dma.  On both the long and short side, it is best to get in early, get out early, and leave someone else holding the bag.  Don’t be late and don’t get greedy.  Take your worthwhile profits and move on.

Stay safe

Bounce continues

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 1:53

The markets opened higher this morning, no doubt due to retail investors placing overnight orders given yesterday’s big gains.  But within minutes the market gave back much of that upside as cynical institutional investors used the strength to sell more shares.  The question is, who’s right, the amateurs or the pros?  Conventional wisdom says the pros are far more savvy traders, but the reality is much different when you look critically at the pros performance.  The hard truth is pros are helpless victims to the market’s swings just like the rest of us.

I want to correct something I stated the other day when I said I was encouraged by the prospects of the next follow-through-day (FTD).  What I really should have said is I am encouraged by the prospects of the next bounce.  This week’s rebound took a lot of gas out of the tank and it will be a few more days before the market has the strength to stage another big up-day that will qualify as a FTD.  By that point the market will have rallied a bit more and the actual FTD will happen at least 2/3 of the way through this move, meaning anyone who buys the FTD will be late to the party and most likely watch the markets rollover not long after.  As I stated in previous posts, I expect the market will run into resistance near the 50dma and we are over halfway there. And to be honest, the market might not have enough left in tank to stage a 1.4% up day on higher volume before it runs into resistance, making all of the above FTD discussion moot.

As for how I am trading this market, I went long index ETFs on Tuesday.  The reason I chose indexes instead of top-rated growth stocks is this market is far too choppy to speculate in high-flying names that can crash 10-50% overnight.  The indexes are a far more stable and predictable in this environment.  This also lets me take larger positions than I would feel comfortable with in any individual stock.  Swing-trading the indexes is not a CAN SLIM technique, but it gives me something to do while I wait for a good bull-rally to trade, which could months away.  In addition, I find having multiple techniques in my toolbox gives me the flexibility to adapt my trading style to the market we are in.  A hammer is a great tool, but you’ll get yourself in trouble if you try to use a hammer on everything.

LULU daily @ 1:53 EDT

LULU dropped the ball with its latest earnings release and is down 10%.  The stock had a monster run, up 2,700% since the ’09 lows, but every good thing must eventually come to an end.  Is LULU’s time up?  The interesting thing is LULU beat on earnings and revenue, yet it is still getting pounded today.  What gives?  Most likely it is concern over declining margins.  Obviously investors in high P/E stocks hate to see that.  Was this just a blip, or signs of saturation, competition, and pricing pressure?  Time will tell, but given LULU’s impressive run, there is a lot of air under the stock.

FB is finding a little support, but there is a lot of fear remaining over the end of its lockup and the impending wave of selling by insiders.  But if everyone is already talking about it, wouldn’t it already be priced in?  I wonder if the stock will actually rally after the lockup expires?  There is way too much bearishness in this widely hated and ridiculed name and that will inevitably lead to a bounce.  But there is no need to catch a falling knife based on speculation and prediction.    Wait for the bounce and then hang on for a nice pop.  But don’t get greedy and take your profits early.

Stay safe

Reclaiming all of Friday’s losses

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily @ 1:31 EDT

A strong up day in the markets as we snap back from Friday’s plunge.  All the traders who piled in on the short side after the dismal jobs report are getting their clock cleaned today.  This morning’s rally has pretty wiped out all of Friday’s sell-off and is yet another example of the obvious trade being the wrong trade.  We’ll see if these early gains hold up through the day, but so far the market is marching higher and most traders are scrambling as they find themselves on the wrong side of the trade.  No doubt this could continue for a couple more days as bearish traders are forced to close out their short positions.

Today is shaping up to be an excellent follow-through-day, if only it wasn’t day three of a rally attempt.  No matter how great today’s price action looks, we still need a strong rally day tomorrow or later to confirm a new uptrend.

It appears this summer is shaping up with a similar choppy feel as last summer, except without the extreme volatility.  Last summer we were up and down 5 and 10% every couple days, this summer the moves have been far more moderate.  No doubt the current market is nervous about headlines, but it is less panicky and irrational than last summer.  We should expect this trading range to stick around for a while unless Merkel shocks the world and does an about-face by suddenly supporting Euro bonds and money printing.  I have no doubt Europe will figure this thing out, it will just take a bit of negotiating and compromise.  And as we all know, the political process is both messy and drawn-out, as any resolution won’t be reached until it looks like everything is ready to collapse.  Brinkmanship is the name of the game in politics and that is what we should prepare for.  But the market has a hard time coping with the back and forth, and thus the choppiness will continue.  But as we approach the end of the year and the whole thing hasn’t unraveled, more speculative traders will get the courage to start going long in a meaningful way.  Not long after, others will fall in line, pushing the markets higher and the strength will continue as the stragglers chase to keep up.

TPX daily @ 1:31 EDT

Former darling TPX is getting pounded today, down 50% and is 75% off of its 52wk high of just two months ago.  The higher they go, the harder they fall and is yet another highflier with an extreme valuation coming back to earth.  CAN SLIM is a trading strategy, not an investing strategy.  Don’t fall in love with a stock, just date them.  As O’Neil often says, all stocks are bad, unless they go up.  We can now throw TPX in the same bin as recent blow-ups like NFLX, OPEN, and GMCR and previous crashes like AOL, PALM, CSCO, FSLR, RIMM and CROX.  And the same thing will happen going forward.  Always be warry, knowing there are other hot stocks in the IBD50 whose days are numbered.  The best way to cope with this risk is to take profits early, sidestep pullbacks, and roll your profits into the next big thing.  Follow those simple rules and it will keep you from giving back all your profits on your best trades.  It is easy to make money in the stock market, the hard part is keeping it.

Stay safe

Finding support after Friday’s sell-off

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 1:07 EDT

The markets continue finding support around their 200dma and so far arrested what could have become a cascade of panic selling after Friday’s jobs report.  This is an encouraging sign the markets are taking a wait and see attitude to this economic weakness versus a sell first, ask questions later approach we’ve seen in previous plunges.  The interesting thing about browsing major market news outlets is the complete absence of professionals saying this weakness is a great buying opportunity.  From my highly unscientific survey, it seems many Wall Street traders are pessimistic about the current outlook.  But being a contrarian, I find this is highly encouraging.  The reason contrarian investing works is who continues holding stocks when they are convinced the markets are headed lower?  So when everyone is bearish, it means they have already done all the selling they are going to do.  If all the selling has already taken place, how much lower can we go?  Thus what becomes the new path of least resistance?  No doubt a nasty headline could take the knees out from under this skittish market, but as we are watching the markets digest Friday’s dismal jobs report constructively, at this stage in the game it appears there is not a lot of extra selling pressure left in the market and any additional bad news will also be more limited.  It helps to think of market sentiment as a spring.  Sometime it is extended and others it is compressed.  A stretched market snaps back hard and fast, while a compressed market resists additional pressure fairly well.  This is most likely why Friday’s jobs report hasn’t triggered a two-week slide like we saw last summer when the markets were trading near 52wk highs.

As for how to trade this, now might be a good time to lighten up on any short positions, as the potential for a bounce is more probable than another leg down.  This correction is pretty long in the tooth and fairly obvious to everyone; remember, traders who overstay their welcome always get stuck with the bill.  Take your profits early and get ready for the next high probability trade.  For those with an iron stomach, buying small positions could make for some excitement with limited risk as we wait for a more concrete follow through day.  Speaking of which, given yesterday’s price-action, we are in day-two of an attempted rally.  We could see a follow through as soon as Thursday if the markets have a strong up-day on higher volume.  And keep in mind, the more reluctant people are to buy the follow-through-day, the more likely it is to work.  While I’ve been pessimistic over previous follow-through-days, I’m fairly constructive on the next one given the extreme sentiment.  No doubt we could see additional selling from here as anything is possible in the markets, but when looking at recent price action between the sell-off since April and the apparent support after Friday’s disappointing jobs report, it seem like the higher probability trade is now higher. But keep in mind there is a difference between a bounce and a sustained rally.  Most likely we’ll move sideways in a trading range as the market digests the headline risks in front of us, but this churn is what clears the way for additional gains later in the year.  In our current environment swing trading will be the best way to approach the market, meaning get in early and take your profits early.

As I alluded to earlier in this post, I follow the financial news daily, but not in a traditional way where I am seeking trading advice or looking for the next big thing.  I use the media to gauge sentiment by hearing what other traders are thinking.  There are a lot of successful investors like Buffet and O’Neil who avoid the noise of Wall Street and have moved thousands of miles away from the crowd.  But I’ve taken it to the next level and rather than simply ignore the noise, I actually sample it and use it to give me clues on group-think and clustering that present trading opportunities.  This style is not suitable for most people, but I find it gives me an edge when trying to anticipate the market’s next move.

Stay safe

Sell-off continues

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 2:25 EDT

The markets opened higher, but quickly turned those gains into losses as they reversed lower in the first 20 minutes of trade.  It seems eager speculators were trying to catch a falling knife after Friday’s massive sell-off, but after that temporary support, the markets resumed their slide due to a lack of follow on buying from a wider pool of investors. In fact, some larger money managers most likely used the early strength to sell even more of their positions, causing that quick reversal just 10 minutes after the open.

The one positive through late morning is the selling is fairly orderly and there has not been a mass rush for the exits as we are down a manageable ~0.5%.  But that could easily change this afternoon if the markets fail to find a floor and this weakness triggers even more selling.  It will be interesting to see how many potential sellers are left in the markets after the two-month decline and Friday’s steep sell-off.

The question we are left to ponder, “what is greater, the fear or the reality?”  Has the market underpriced the risks ahead of us, or is it irrationally fearful of what is over the horizon?  The problem in 2008 was the markets grossly under-appreciated the risks associated with the banking sector, leading to a massive crash in Oct 2008 as the world finally woke up to just how dire the situation really was.  Are we in a similar position where Greece, the Euro, and US economic recovery will also catch investors off guard?  Seeing how the media has obsessed over these headline issues for the last two years, it would be hard to make a case these events are still flying under the radar.

But that doesn’t mean the selling will stop since fear and selling begets more fear and selling.  It is a highly contagious disease that spreads quickly with devastating consequences for anyone standing in the way.  Crashes need a trigger to get kicked off and Friday’s jobs report could easily qualify.  But how much fuel, ie weak holders, is left in the markets?  Are there enough to trigger another 20% plunge like we saw last summer?  Anything can happen, but I expect we are closer to the end of this correction.  There is only a 1% cushion remaining from this year’s first quarter rally in the S&P500.  Is this the magic value the market is magnetically drawn toward?  Often the markets target obscene values before finally reversing.  Is 1257 that bogie?

Speaking of which, it is crazy how quickly the markets can unravel the best first quarter in 30 years.  Easy come, easy go.  It is simply another example why the savvy trader always harvests his profits when the sun is still shining.  The markets peak when everyone is most optimistic, so when everyone is bullish, it is time to start trimming positions.

But back to the previous discussion, using the above logic, it seems ~1250 is our line in the sand.  Find support there and it could make for a good swing trade as the market rebounds.  Crash through this level and we could see a cascade of selling push us down to and through 1,200.  But from what I see, there is a lot of fear in the markets right now, meaning we could be close to the end of this move.  But remember, only impulsive traders try to pick the bottom; disciplined traders wait for the follow through day before jumping back in.  Given how far we’ve come, I expect the next follow-through-day has a high probability of being the real thing.  While I don’t expect it will lead to new highs in the indexes, it will make for a good swing trade as we bounce to the upper end of the summer’s trading range, most likely near the 50dma in the mid to upper 1,300 range.

INVN daily @ 2:26 EDT

As for individual stocks, I’ve been neglectful of maintaining my watch list as I am simply waiting for all the shoes to drop and see where leading stocks stand when the market finally finds its footing.  As an example of how hard the leaders can fall, 1/2 of my old watch list is down 20% or more from its 52-week high, with 1/3 down over 30%.  Most scary is INVN and FOSL who are down over 50%.

In the rebound, the best short-term trades will come from the high quality stocks that got smacked down hard due to irrational selling.  Once the broad market pressure lifts, many of these stocks will pop like a cork.  The better longer-term trades will come from the high quality stocks that resisted a sharp sell-off and held up better than most.  But because they were not subject to an irrational sell-off, their near-term upside will be more limited in comparison.

Stay safe

Fresh lows on disappointing jobs report

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:04 EDT

The jobs report came in far under expectations and the markets sold-off hard at the open.  Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ made new lows in early trade, putting an end to the rally attempt dating back to May 21st.  This means we are at least four days from a legitimate buy-point.  But given the headlines, I don’t expect market participants are ready to start buying equities with reckless abandon any time soon, so patience is the key.

The more interesting debate is if the market is shortable on this news.  Are we on the verge of a cascade sell-off, or has a lot of the selling already occurred and we are in the process of forming a base before heading higher?  The two things to consider are 1) has European turmoil and the feeble US economy actually caught anyone off guard and 2) is the market extended or compressed?  The answer to those two questions will give us strong clues about the potential for a cascade sell-off.

Maybe I’m off base, but it seems like the news has reported Euro troubles and a pathetic domestic recovery for at least a couple of years, so I doubt the recent headlines are catching anyone off guard.  The second aspect is we have long since sold-off from our March peak.  Looking back to last July’s crash, we were coming from 52-week highs prior to the plunge.  The sell-off over the last two months has taken a lot of potential energy out of the market.  Many of the weak holders have already sold, leaving far less fuel for a sell-off this time around.  Of course the thing about a panic sell-off is it can turn resilient bulls into weak-kneed worrywarts over a matter of days as the market crashes through support levels and triggers additional stop-loss selling.  But so far I am encouraged by the floor the indexes are finding at the 200dma, indicating traders are not rushing for the exits…….yet.

But as we flirt with the 200dma, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the market dip under, triggering all the stop-losses sitting at this level.  The question is how much lower do we go if we break through.  Do we just poke our head under?  Do we drop to 1257 to go flat for the year?  Or do we fall all the way to 1200?  I find 1200 the least probable outcome without a new catalyst pressuring the markets.  A slowly growing US economy and European infighting is already priced in the markets.  But actual US job losses and economic contraction could spook traders.  Same goes with a fatal breakdown of European negotiations.  But for the trader, both of these would most likely trigger temporary dips as it flushes out all the pessimists and weak holders.  The lower we go, the bigger the bounce will be.

As for Greece, booting them out of the Euro might initially trigger a sell-off, but it could bounce shortly after as the initial panic transitions to relief that the Euro is actually stronger without Greece.

SWI daily @ 12:04 EDT

As for individual stocks, the best performing stocks as of late are getting smacked down.  LQDT, SWI, CRUS, and TRIP are all selling off hard after making recent 52wk highs.  During a market correction, resist the temptation to buy stocks showing great strength because they are far more vulnerable to broad market weakness.  All of these stocks have shown unusual strength recently, but in a market correction that simply makes them good watch-list candidates, not buy candidates.

Stay safe

More weakness

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily at 12:26 EDT

We continue selling-off after Tuesday’s “breakout”.  It seems fairly safe to call Tuesday’s strength nothing more than a short-squeeze.  Imagine the pain all the bears who were shaken-out as we broke above the consolidation or the bulls who bought the “breakout” are feeling today as the market reversed course.  If there is one overriding truth we can count on is the market’s propensity toward humiliating as many people as it can at any one time.  And more often than not, it crushes and humbles both bears and bulls before finally revealing its hand.

The market testing 1300 as we push toward the lower end of the recent consolidation.  Will we bounce off of the recent lows?  Will we plummet in a cascade of selling?  For those in cash it really doesn’t matter.  In fact, the lower the better because irrational selling creates more upside potential.  But for those trying to play the short side, it helps to have profit targets.

Tomorrow we’ll get the monthly employment report.  Expectations have been dramatically lowered after the last couple misses and the deceleration in hiring we’ve seen in recent results.  Will this trend continue, or will the lowered bar make it easier to surprise to the upside?  While employment numbers were a big driver in 2009 and 2010, they have become less of a market moving data point recently.  No doubt it will make waves, but as long as the number isn’t too shocking in either direction, the effect will be short-lived as the market quickly returns to its obsession over Greece and the Euro zone. But one thing to consider is we are still holding above the lows of the recent consolidation, meaning the current rally attempt is still alive and a strong employment number could trigger a follow through day tomorrow if we have a 1.4% pop on strong volume.

While there are a lot of IBD50 stocks holding up during this correction, the thing to note is the difference in names between this week’s IBD50 and those form March.  Many of the favorite stocks of the Q1 rally have completely fallen off the list.  Often the higher they rise, the harder they fall. Most of IBD’s top groups are defensive, coming from the medical and banking industries.  Are these stocks showing potential as the next big thing, or are they simply hiding places for long-only mutual funds trying to lose the least amount of money in a market correction?

Stay safe

Giving back yesterday’s gains

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:43 EDT

Stocks opened lower, giving back all of yesterday’s gains and then some.  Good news one day, bad news the next, typical action for a consolidation.  The interesting thing to watch is if this consolidation is the bottom of the range, or if it is a pause halfway down as part of a three wave correction.  As I shared earlier, I expect at the very least we’ll retest the lows of the range and more likely than not make new lows before this is all said and done.  The question is if the lows will be 1290, 1280, 1257, or lower.

For the time being the market is reading too much into each headline coming out of Europe or China.  One day the market is excited and the next it is dejected.  No doubt the news will go both ways for a while and as a result the market will get whipped around. One thing to put all of this in perspective is no matter what the economy is doing, there will always be both good and bad headlines at any given time.  What really matters is how the market responds given what the masses are inclined to gravitate toward.  Is the market optimistic, pessimistic, or confused?  Right now we are in a choppy consolidation because the market is swing back and forth between bullish and bearish biases.  While it seems like the market is chaining its mind on a daily basis, what is really going on is neither the bulls nor bears have the strength to sustain a breakout and after a flurry of bull or bear activity, it quickly fizzles and the market swings back the other direction.

Breaking the upper side of the recent consolidation shook out many bears and tempted premature breakout traders to go long.  But this was nothing more than highly speculative buying and there is no substance to these traders as they come and go with the prevailing wind.  To sustain a move higher we’re going to need buyers with conviction that are willing to hold for extended periods of time.  With all the headline risk facing the markets, many of these longer-term traders are waiting out the uncertainty before committing more capital to the markets.  Many of these savvy traders have the view they would rather buy several percent higher and forgo those profits if it means they have less risk of the market reversing on them. And this is why each breakout fails to gather the critical mass it needs to continue higher.

CRUS daily @ 12.43 EDT

CRUS is trimming yesterday’s strong breakout gains.  This demonstrates the risks associated with buying even the strongest stocks during a correction where very few stocks can overpower a declining market.  And even the best performing stocks only notch modest gains during a correction, giving a very low risk to reward.  As pointed out during our monthly IBD meetup, if WON makes all his portfolio managers hold cash during a correction, what makes us think we can do better?  The goal isn’t to make all the money, but to capture a chunk of highest-probability profits when the wind is at our backs.  Using leverage on the way up and sidestepping the pullbacks will produce great results even when buying late and selling early.  And back to CRUS, yesterday’s breakout is highly noteworthy and the stock should be added to a ready list for consideration when the uptrend resumes.

Stay safe.

Early gains fizzle

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

NASDAQ daily @ 2:16 EDT

Stocks are higher in response to global headlines and strength seen in overseas trading.    Given the extremely low holiday volume on Friday, a technical follow-through-day seems plausible if the indexes close with 1.25%+ gains.  Of course we should be suspicious of any follow-through-day that takes advantage of a holiday comparison.  A more reliable benchmark is Thursday’s volume or the 50-day average volume. But as I write this, the markets have given up 1/2 of the early morning gains as the euro is plunging against the dollar.

Part of the headwind equities are facing is the inverse relationship between the strength of the US dollar and the US stock markets.  Weak dollar = strong stock prices, strong dollar = weak markets.  Much of this relationship occurs because most companies in the indexes derive a large portion of their sales and profits from overseas.  When foreign currencies are weak relative to the US dollar, those overseas revenues and earnings lose value, lowering a domestic company’s profits, and thus valuation.  In addition, a strong dollar means domestically produced products and services become more expensive in foreign countries and those higher prices put further pressure on international sales and earnings.  Given how close this relationship has been, the US dollar is worth keeping an eye on as part of your market routine.

No doubt a lot of bears are running for cover as today’s price action broke above recent trading highs.  Many of the late bears who shorted the market long after the decline was obvious are feeling a lot of pain as most of their positions are in the red.  To stop the bleeding, they are buying back their positions, contributing to this move higher as part of a classic short squeeze.

Now the question is if there will be follow-on buying from value investors after the temporary lift from the short squeeze dissipates.  To continue rallying from here, the market will need to conclude the reasons for the recent sell-off were unjustified.  That means getting over our renewed fear of headlines.  What are the chances of that happening over the next several days?  And late morning trade gave back many of those early gains, showing not many traders were eager to follow the short squeeze.

But while I don’t see a lot of reason for us to sustain a rally from here, the downside risk is equally suspicious.  As we  find ourselves in a headline obsessed market, the thing to remember is we can safely ignore what everyone is talking about because it is already priced in the market.  The markets are the most efficient discounter of information ever conceived.  As soon as a material number of people become are afraid of a Greek default or a Euro breakup, they either immediately sell their positions that would be affected, or lower the price they would be willing to pay for those vulnerable  assets.  This shift in sentiment moves markets prices to the exact point where there is just as much optimism as pessimism and the scales are perfectly balanced.  Existing fears or hopes cannot drive the market because they are already priced in.  It takes chances in expectations to move markets as traders change their mind and either bid up or sell assets to reflect their new expectations of the future.

I expect we’ll continue to trading in this range as the market sorts through its feelings toward the economy in the US, Europe, and China.  From here it will take a material shift in sentiment either due to new information or fatigue over the same fatalistic headlines failing to crash the market (ie Chicken Little effect).

The stock market is one of the few places in the world where people are excited for the opportunity to buy merchandise at inflated prices and turn their nose up at buying anything at a discount.   You don’t need to look any further than FB to see this phenomena.  Two-weeks ago people were excited for the opportunity to buy FB at $45.  Yet here we are just a few days later and what was a screaming buy at $45 is now an untouchable pariah at $29.  What gives?  It is the exact same company with the exact same balance sheet and future as it had two-weeks ago, yet it went from being a must have stock to a complete embarrassment that no one is willing to admit to owning.

This is a perfect example of clustering.  People’s views on FB are based entirely on what other people think, namely the aggregate’s view as reflected in the stock price.  When the group likes a stock, they bid up the price and everyone loves it.  When the price falls, everyone hates it.  But the thing to remember is the more people who end up clustered around a single view, the less independence and balance there is in the market and the more likely the price will make a big move in the opposite direction.  We saw this when FB was the must have stock and was bid up to a $100b valuation and we are now seeing the pendulum swing the other way as FB is the laughing-stock of the market with its $60b market cap.

LNKD weekly

FB continues to get pounded today as it sliced through $30 with the initiation of options trading today.  But this shouldn’t surprise anyone as it continues to shakeout irrationally euphoric bulls.  Using GRPN and LNKD as benchmarks, both traded lower for 4-5 weeks before bouncing higher.  We should expect to see something similar with FB before it bounces.  For swing traders, we want the stock bottom before buying because anything else is trying to catch a falling knife.  Day traders who watch each tick of the day can get away with trading short-term moves as they jump in and out of a stock over a period of hours, but the rest of us would be better served by waiting for the stock to bottom and rebound first.   Anyone contemplating a trade on FB, keep your price target under $38 because of all the regretful IPO buyers who are praying to the stock market gods so they can get out of their bonehead trade without losing money.  This selling pressure at the IPO price will create a headwind for the stock, slowing further gains.  But for the breakout trader, seeing a high-volume break above the $38 level would make for an interesting buying opportunity.  Remember this is an advanced trade and most would be better served waiting for a follow-through-day and buying more traditional CAN SLIM stocks showing the strongest fundamentals and charts.

Stay safe.

Quiet pre-holliday session

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 2:02 EDT

It’s a quiet pre-holiday trading session.  The market has been trading around breakeven all morning as everyone is far more focused on what they are going to do over the three-day weekend than what is happening in Europe.

The market continues finding support in the 1300 region, moderating the anxiety of a cascade sell-off as investors are getting more comfortable with these new levels.  There might be a little more upside left in the bounce, but no doubt we’ll test the lower end of the range over the next couple weeks.  The market will need to chew through both bulls and bears as we consolidate and search for the next move, either up or down. But for the time being, I think most of the traders who wanted to sell have already sold, so it will take new and unexpected bad news to trigger another big leg down.  (For the purposes of this discussion, I’ll consider a move down to 1250 as part of the original sell-off and consolidation, not a new leg down.  A new leg down would be a dramatic plunge to 1200 or lower.)

The thing we need to realize about Greece is by itself, a default or eviction from the Euro will have little direct effect on the banking system since all Greek debt is already viewed and booked as near worthless.  No doubt it will hit some speculators and hedge funds making big bets on the outcome in the pocketbook, but we should not fear global contagion and banks falling like dominoes.  Most major banks have either gotten rid of their Greek debt, hedged it, or written it down and already booked the loss.  Greece losing the Euro will be a major disaster for the local region, but it will not be a material issue for the global financial sector.

The fear in the markets has never been about what happens if Greece fails, but about the bigger dominoes like Spain and Italy, situations not already priced in the market.   No doubt Germany could make an example out of Greece to get Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain to tote the line, but ultimately I expect the Euro to hold together through a combination of all the ideas being thrown out there, namely a hybrid of bailouts, Euro bonds, money printing, and austerity.  There are major negative consequences to each of these, but doing all in moderation will lead to the least bad resolution.

Survey from Yahoo Finance on 5/25

Who wants to buy FB?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Being a contrarian, seeing the humiliation suffered by early FB investors makes for an interesting counter-trend opportunity.  No doubt the stock could decline a lot more from here and there is a very real risk of decelerated growth crushing its high-flying valuation, but all the highly bearish sentiment forming around this story makes me far more intrigued by this name.  I continue to be skeptical of its long-term prospects because consumer tech companies have a limited shelf-life (just ask PALM, RIMM, AOL, MySpace, etc), but this highly skewed sentiment in FB could setup for some short-term trades.  Regardless of which way FB eventually goes, no doubt there will be some tradable swings like we’ve seen in LNKD and GRPN.  Obviously this is the deep-end of the pool, so only try something like this if you know what you are doing and understand the risks.  The key to managing these kind of trades is capturing profits early and not allowing yourself to hold too long and get whipped around by the inevitable volatility.

Have a great weekend.

Did you see the olds?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 1:32 EDT

The markets bounced around modestly all morning and are currently lower with no new headlines to push the markets decisively one way or the other.  For the time being the correction found footing around 1300 as the selling pressure moderated and value buyers are finding these levels attractive.

Today is the first day that could qualify as a follow through day from Monday’s rally attempt.  The thing to be careful of is while there are such things as V-bottoms, they are typically associated with frantic sell-offs that are emotionally charged and lack fundamental merit, thus the extreme plunge followed by a quick rebound.  Further these are most often found in individual stocks, not the indexes.  Based on history, if we do get a FTD in the next few days, it is unlikely the market will take-off and resume the previous uptrend, if for no other reason than we have a fair bit of overhead resistance from regretful buyers over the last three months who are praying for the chance to get out at breakeven.  So while this pullback is constructive in the big picture, leave the raging-bull hat in the closet for the time being.

As for headlines, it seems like we are stuck in the movie Ground Hog Day as we continue seeing the same economic stories recycled from last year.  We should start calling it the “olds” because there is nothing new about it.  As it stands everything should already be priced in the market fairly well given we just reset for the Q1 Teflon rally that was completely oblivious to ominous headlines.  Not to say we can’t dip a bit lower over the coming weeks and months through the market’s typical gyrations and head fakes, but it will take something genuinely new and unexpected to crash the market from here.  Maybe this is Greece actually getting kicked out of the Euro instead of just idle speculation and debate.  Or some kind of irrefutable proof that China has been manipulating their economic numbers and the situation is far more dire than we are lead to believe.  But as long as we are simply fretting over a sluggish economy or a Greek default, that is already baked into the cake and accounted for.

FFIV daily @ 1:32 EDT

In individual stocks, FFIV is getting crushed today and is 20% off of its 52-week high.  This is just one of many recent examples of why every great investor preaches never fall in love with a stock.  Date them and then take your money and run while the sun is still shining.  The idea of home-run hitting is extremely seductive, who doesn’t want to hold a great stock through an entire 1,000% run?  But while it is easy to identify the biggest winners at the end of each year, the thing we fail to consider is the hundreds of stocks that had the exact same fundamentals and chart patterns that crashed and burned.  This phenomena is called survivor bias because we only study the successful and ignore similar examples that plunged into obscurity.  In trading, the best way to hedge against this is to take your 20% profits and move on to the next hot trade.

Indecision

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 1:56 EDT

The markets are facing another bout of weakness after a strong showing on Monday and early Tuesday.  Almost all of those gains have been wiped out as the S&P500 is flirting with 1300 again over renewed Greek concerns.  But so far we continue holding above Friday’s low, keeping the rally attempt alive.  If we honor Friday’s low, starting tomorrow we could have a follow through day if there are nice price gains on higher volume.

While there are a lot of similarities between this year’s sell-off and last year, the big difference is this market don’t seem nearly as frantic.  Last year could easily be described as bi-polar as the market whipped from one extreme to the other, but this time around things seem far more orderly, lacking those violent changes in sentiment.  If last year was bi-polar, the current market is simply indecisive.  Similar Euro and economic headlines are weighing on the market’s mind, but the market is no longer fearing the end of global civilization and is doing a better job of keeping headline risks in perspective.  These unresolved issues will continue to haunt us for a while, but the market is acting far more rational and that is giving the market more stability.

Even if the indecision continues through summer, I expect we’ve already seen the bulk of the sell-off.  We’ll probably dip under the 200dma or 1257 to go flat for the year at some point, but that will most likely be the process of building a solid foundation for this correction to bounce off of and that violation of support will not be a trapdoor triggering a massive sell-off.  Of course this assumes a fairly orderly resolution to the Euro debt problem and modest economic growth.  No doubt the markets will unravel if the Euro comes apart, China crashes, or conflict in the Middle East threatens oil supplies.  But barring those unlikely events, the market should be fairly stable going forward.  Of course there is a big difference between stable and rallying.  It will take a period of price consolidation to find suitable resolutions to these headline issues and that will delay the indexes from making new highs for a bit.  But while the market might trade sideways, there will be opportunities to locate leading stocks making big price gains once the market headwinds stop knocking them down.

Not a lot to say about individual leading stocks right now as most of the favorites continue trading under their 50dma.  But standard bases take at least two months to form, so we shouldn’t be expecting many of these CAN SLIM stocks to start making new highs any time soon.  Patience is the name of the game and we just have to wait for the market and individual stocks to move back into buyable positions.  If we were being optimistic, we should hope for a tradable fall rally to help end the year on a strong note.  If someone has problems sitting on their hands for the next couple months, you’d probably do better buying the dips and selling the rallies.  In a sideways market, buying breakouts can be a frustrating and expensive game. No doubt there will be a handful of strong performers, but these will be the exception, not the rule.  So be very selective and disciplined with any buys for a while.

And of course I reserve the right to be 100% wrong and revise my opinions as the conditions warrant.

Stay safe

Up, down, or sideways?

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 11:54 EDT

The markets opened flat, but rallied out of the gate in continuation of yesterday’s strength.  While yesterday’s price gains were impressive, the lack of volume demonstrated a reluctance of people to jump on the bandwagon.  Of course this is not a red flag by itself since most traders are late when recognizing a a reversal.

Part of the reason I’m suspicious of this most recent rally attempt is I would feel better if it undercut a major technical level in order to flush-out a large number of holders on huge volume before bouncing higher.  Potentially 1300 could be that obscene level the markets often trade to before reversing, but it just doesn’t feel like the dip under 1300 triggered that huge, emotion driven sell-off.  No doubt Friday’s volume was high, but given it coincided with options expiration, the volume was fairly mediocre when compared with previous options expirations.

The other thing is the sell-off hasn’t been drawn-out enough for traders to grow numb to headlines the way they did last fall before kicking-off our most recent Q1 rally.  Traders continue to be fairly sensitive to headlines and any bad news could trigger a new wave of selling, hampering a sustained rally.  Plus I don’t think the sell-off has reached obscene valuations due to irrational selling that provide such a compelling value that stocks can bottom and rally in the face of dire headlines.

But a lot of what we should expect depends on what direction the market is headed.  There are three general market directions; up, down, and sideways.  And based upon where we are headed will determine what kind of price action we should anticipate.  Much of the above expectations of a huge volume undercut is based on forming a bottom and resuming the previous uptrend.  This shakeout of weak holders is what clears the way for a move higher.  But if we don’t get that flush-out, the bottom is less solid and will more likely lead to a sideways range until time and repeated pullbacks demoralize and humiliate weak holders, thus setting the stage for a continuation of the previous rally.  And finally we could be experiencing a temporary bounce on our way much lower.  But given how far we have come already, a large portion of the correction has already occurred and barring a huge shock to the system, I expect we are fairly close to this move’s lowest point.

Given the headlines, economy, and forward looking nature of the market, it is not surprising the market got ahead of itself with the Q1 rally and needed a rest.  Of the above scenarios, I expect trading range is where we are headed until the market can sort through some of these headline risks and then ultimately finish the year with a nice rally.  Now, I don’t expect last Thursday was the bottom of the trading rang and the one of the follow-on dips will likely test the 200dma or 1257 area before bouncing.  For an example of how this might look, refer back to last summer’s trading range.  I don’t anticipate the same volatility we saw back then, but the we could trade sideways in a similar fashion through this summer.

If we are transitioning into a trading range, the best way to trade this is to buy the dips and sell the rallies, capturing profits early and often before the market has a chance to take those back.  It could be months before we switch into rally mode where you can hold stocks for extended periods of time.  Of course trading sideways does allow some of the strongest stocks to sustain a rally, but these will be the exception, not the rule, so plan on capturing profits on most of your trades and avoid taking round-trips on your trades.

But these are just my opinions and I could easily be wrong, so we need to follow and trade what the market gives us.  In the markets, it is okay to be wrong, but it is suicidal to stay wrong.

Poor FB was again getting destroyed this morning, down 7% in early trade.  Even more interesting given how difficult it is to locate shares for shorting, meaning most all of the selling pressure is coming former FB bulls dumping shares by the truckload.  This could be setting up an interesting buying opportunity if the selling becomes too overdone.  And even as I write this, the shares have rebounded and are only down 2% by late morning.  Given the volatility, I would only view this as a trading opportunity because I remain skeptical of FB’s future growth opportunities since they already have 1/2 of the planet’s internet users.  I have little doubt subscriber growth is will decelerate and to plateau as they reach the saturation point and growth tapers to population growth and global internet adoption rates.  But regardless, the stock presents a great trading opportunity for the nimble given the high volatility in the name.

LNKD daily @ 11:53 EDT

LNKD is recovering nicely from the FB induced sell-off as investors are recognizing the difference in growth and revenue potential between the two companies.  In addition, some of the liquidation pressure on LNDK in order to make room for FB in investor’s portfolios has relented and this relief has allowed LNKD to bounce back.  It was a nerve wracking ride, but LNKD has recovered its 50dma.  But that is the volatility home-run hitters should expect when trying to hold high-beta stocks through a correction.  I don’t have those kind of nerves and why I prefer selling on the way up even if it means giving up some upside potential.

Stay safe

Waiting for the bounce

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:25 EDT

The indexes rose nicely in early trade, a welcome sight given the streak of six consecutive down-days and 11 losses in last 13 trading sessions.  Is this finally the bounce everyone has been talking about, or the inevitable up-day that is part of most larger sell-offs?  And lets not forget many of the previous down-days were up early too.  Of course the difference today is the markets are up far more than those more modest rallies that quickly fizzled.  Either way, I think buying today’s bounce still counts as catching a falling knife and is best avoided by any prudent trader.  One day does not make a trend.

The news driving today’s rally is word from European leaders they want to keep Greece in the Euro.  Glad to hear that Euro problem is finally solved and we can move on.  (sarcasm)  If I were a wagering man, which all stock traders are, I would say a sizable portion of today’s rally is driven by short-covering.  By itself short-covering is unsustainable without real buyers stepping in to support the new move.  From here we need to wait and see if a meaningful number value buyers are ready to venture back in.

On Friday the S&P500 closed under 1300, while not an important technical level, it is a key psychological mile-marker and no doubt got people’s attention.  The 200dma is the next major target at ~1280 and also coincides with some technical levels dating back to last fall.  1257 is another major psychological milestone on the horizon since it represents giving back 100% of the Q1 rally.  Will we bounce off of this region?  Break through it and then bounce?  Or will it simply be a speed bump on the way to lower prices?

Sentiment in the market is getting precarious and any further declines creates the very real risk of triggering a irrational, fear based sell-off.  People have been able to rationalize most of the recent decline as normal pull-back and and part of a healthy refresh of the phenomenal Q1 rally.  But what was supposed to be a 3-5% correction is quickly becoming uncomfortable. Regret is mounting, as is the fear of greater regret by allowing additional losses to pile up.  No doubt today is a relief rally for those still holding, but to have the market turn back around and make new lows will push many traders to the point of selling simply to make the pain of stop.  And of course that whoosh-down will be the capitulation point that often signals market bottoms.

Part of the reason I suspect we haven’t seen a mad rush for the exits yet is the powerful Q1 rally has left many people sitting with winning trades even in the face of the recent sell-off.  As any of us know, it is one thing to see profits dwindle, yet an entirely different feeling to watch your account go into the red.  Maybe this lack of significant panic selling is because many traders are still up for the year and this is acting as a stabilizing factor keeping the markets more rational during this correction.  But it is something to be aware of if we continue to fall and that pushes more traders into the red for the year.

FB intraday @ 12:24 EDT

FB is providing a lesson in market sentiment and supply and demand as the most assured IPO pop in history is plunging 12% instead.  And no doubt FB could have crashed on Friday had the underwriters not dumped a ton of into the name in order to avoid a an ugly first day sell-off.  Yet again the market proves that the best move is to trade opposite of what everyone else thinks.  Of course this doesn’t mean the stock is dead and it could easily rally after forming an IPO base.

And so this brings us back to the indexes again.  How many people are saying the market is set up for a great short vs how many say the sell-off is overdone and ready to bounce?  There are no numbers to gauge this in real-time so we need to go with our gut based on the clues around us.  Now this is simply my opinion, but it seems like not enough people have been demoralized yet to justify a turnaround from this aggressive sell-off, leaving me highly suspicious of today’s rally.  No doubt today’s strength could continue for a couple days, but that is how a sawtooth decline looks.  But regardless of bear or bull outlook, the disciplined CAN SLIM trader is waiting for a follow though day to avoid falling prey to a sucker’s rally. And when we do get that follow through day, we need to be ready to start buying the market.  Often the more reluctant you are to buy the follow through day, the more likely it is to work.

Stay safe.

Facebook

By Jani Ziedins | Intraday Analysis

S&P500 daily @ 12:45 EDT

Markets opened slightly higher as everyone was eagerly anticipating the public trading of FB scheduled for 11am.  But the early strength was fairly constrained given all the other things on the market’s mind.   And when FB finally started trading, it could only be described as underwhelming.  It opened a few dollars higher, but quickly retreated to the offer price where it found a floor, no doubt a result of many traders putting in limit orders at $38 and the stock will continue finding good support there until all those limit orders are filled.  But given early trade, it seems like the FB IPO generated far more smoke than fire as the frenzy was more more manufactured by the press than a real phenomena among traders.

LNKD daily @ 12:45 EDT

The big loser with FB’s tepid IPO seems to be LNKD as it sliced through the 50dma on the less than enthusiastic reception of FB shares.  No doubt there was a FB premium built into LNKD since they close cousins and this let the air out of LNKD shares.  Just another example of a strong leader stumbling and falling victim to the recent weakness.  But there is still a lot of trading left in the day as IPOs are often volatile out of the gate.  In fact, as I write this, LNKD has bounced off the lows and FB has also moved above the offer.  Who knows, we could still see the FB rush this afternoon as many traders were afraid to buy at the open.

Back to the markets, the good news about the recent sell-off is it has created attractive levels in many leading stocks.  Of course the challenge for the savvy trader is figuring out when the storm has passed and it is safe to move his chips back in.  It is interesting to hear many professional traders mention how attractive prices are and they are wading back in on the long side.  Are these savvy traders getting ahead of everyone else, or are they simply representative of sentiment felt by a large number of traders?  If too many people think these are attractive levels and are buying right now, this will lead to short lived support because once they are done buying, the market will resume its previous trend.

The structural problem facing the markets right now is typically it takes enthusiastic buyers to move a stocks price higher and they fight each other as they bid up the price.  And no doubt enthusiastic sellers will also drop a stock.  But that is not the only thing that causes a stock to fall.  Lack of buyers can also pressure prices as they fall under their own weight due to a dearth of buyers.  Why this is important is even if we have exhausted enthusiastic sellers, we could still continue to decline if buyers remain gun-shy over headline risk.  So while a rising stock will typically reverse when it runs out of buyers, the opposite is not true with sell-offs as the market can continue declining even after it runs out of sellers.  And compounding this is many experienced traders have long ago learned defense is an important part of successful trading and declining prices can trigger automatic stop-losses, which in turn pushes the market down and triggers yet another wave of stop-losses.  This continues until either we run through all the stop-losses or the prices become so tempting to value investors that they rush in and prop up the market.

Back to FB related trades, could the pressure we’ve seen in AAPL and other leaders be liquidations by big money in order to free $16+ billion of capital necessary make room for the FB IPO?  It is an interesting thesis and we’ll see how these stocks trade going forward.  Of course there are several components to a stock’s price: 1) Fundamentals  2) Technicals  3) Supply and Demand and  4) Sentiment.  AAPL’s fundamental story is still intact, so that is not the source of the correction.  Selling to make room for FB falls under supply and demand, so once that phenomena stops today, it will remove that downward pressure.  But the wildcard is if AAPL’s slide dented the euphoric sentiment and technicals that lifted it in the first quarter.  These two factors could turn into a headwind going forward.  Time will tell.

Stay safe.